Sacramento Kings at Detroit Pistons: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Jan 31, 3:00 PM ETLittle Caesars Arena · at Pistons

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Kings and Pistons
SAC	This season	DET
0-6	Record	5-1
1-5	ATS	5-1
5-1	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DET 123–104 · win probability DET 91%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 227.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DET has more of the edges

SAC 0, DET 9 · 2026-27 so far

DETBig

SAC offense vs DET defense

Offense 27th of 30 against a defense 1st, on the model’s ratings

DETBig

Three-pointers

SAC hits 30.4% and allows 39.2%; DET hits 36.3% and allows 32.5%. Threes are 38.0% and 43.3% of their shots

DETBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: SAC 51.0 and allows 60.4; DET 53.1 and allows 48.8

DETBig

DET offense vs SAC defense

Offense 17th of 30 against a defense 29th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: SAC plays 106.0 a game (6th fastest), DET 100.9 (29th). Faster games mean more points

DETBig

Recent form

Last 5: SAC 1-4 ATS, margin -17.8; DET 4-1 ATS, margin +8.0

DETBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SAC 15.9%, DET 15.6%. Forced: SAC 14.6%, DET 17.1%

Context

Schedule so far

SAC has played the 8th-hardest schedule, DET the 17th. A record against a soft schedule means less

DETSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: SAC 26.4, DET 28.9. Allowed: SAC 31.2, DET 28.1

DETSmall

Home court

DET at home. This season: DET 2-0 at home, SAC 0-4 away

DETSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SAC 22.9%, DET 27.2%. Defensive: SAC 73.7%, DET 72.8%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SAC 100%, DET 100%. Transfers in: SAC 0, DET 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SAC WLLLL	1-5	17%	0-4	—
DET WWLWW	5-1	83%	2-0	—

Venue/role: SAC away; DET home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SAC OOOOO	5-1	83%	0-6
DET OUUUU	2-4	33%	5-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SAClast 6	0-6 0%	1-5 17%	5-1 83%
DETlast 6	5-1 83%	5-1 83%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Kings

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 4	vs MIN	L103–117LU
Feb 6	vs PHX	L103–114LU
Feb 7	vs HOU	L97–128LO

Pistons

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 2	vs CHI	W126–110WO
Feb 3	vs NY	L97–111LU
Feb 5	@ PHI	W106–93WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

SAC 5–5 DETSeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · DET has won the last 2 meetings · SAC 5-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 25, 2025-26	SAC 116 @ DET 139	DET -12.5	DET W
Dec 23, 2025-26	DET 136 @ SAC 127	SAC +9.5	SAC W
Apr 7, 2024-25	SAC 127 @ DET 117	DET -4.5	SAC W
Dec 26, 2024-25	DET 114 @ SAC 113	SAC -4.5	DET W
Feb 7, 2023-24	DET 133 @ SAC 120	SAC -13.5	DET W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Kings

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −10.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAC	L 96-121	+5.5	L −19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	vsPOR	L 120-128	+9.5	W +1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 25	vsMEM	L 112-123	+3.5	L −7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 27	@SA	L 103-130	+19.5	L −7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 29	@NO	L 120-132	+6.5	L −5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	@MEM	L 105-136	+7.5	L −23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−19.5

POR

L 120-128

+1.5

MEM

L 112-123

−7.5

L 103-130

−7.5

L 120-132

−5.5

MEM

L 105-136

−23.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −10.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−9.5

POR

L 120-128

+16.5

MEM

L 112-123

+0.5

L 103-130

+0.5

L 120-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-136

+11.5

over 5under 1avg +6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Pistons

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

5-1

83% covers · avg +5.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −11.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

W W W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-183%

W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

O O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsBOS	W 121-113	+1.5	W +9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	@MIA	W 128-111	-2.5	W +14.5	235.5	O 239
Oct 25	@PHI	W 106-93	-1.5	W +11.5	228.5	U 199
Oct 27	@NY	L 97-111	+4.5	L −9.5	220.5	U 208
Oct 28	vsCHA	W 97-89	-7.5	W +0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@BKN	W 110-94	-8.5	W +7.5	222.5	U 204

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BOS

W 121-113

+9.5

MIA

W 128-111

+14.5

PHI

W 106-93

+11.5

L 97-111

−9.5

CHA

W 97-89

+0.5

BKN

W 110-94

+7.5

covered 5didn’t cover 1avg +5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BOS

W 121-113

+13.5

MIA

W 128-111

+3.5

PHI

W 106-93

−29.5

L 97-111

−12.5

CHA

W 97-89

−26.5

BKN

W 110-94

−18.5

over 2under 4avg −11.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Pistons has the better starters

Position by position: Kings 0, Pistons 5, even 0

KingsBetterPistons

G D. Acuff26.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 6.3 ast Score 4

DETBig

G C. Cunningham22.2 pts · 5.5 reb · 7.2 ast Score 47

F D. Sabonis16 pts · 15.8 reb · 7.3 ast Score 26

DETBig

G A. Thompson8.8 pts · 7.4 reb · 5 ast Score 79

F D. Hunter14 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 38

DETBig

F D. Robinson16.8 pts · 2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 77

F P. Achiuwa12.5 pts · 6 reb · 1 ast Score 7

DETBig

F P. Reed13.8 pts · 7 reb · 2 ast Score 97

F L. Black7.1 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 13

DETSmall

F J. Collins9.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 30

KingsBetterPistons

SAC offense27th of 30 · -3.0

DETBig

DET defense1st of 30 · +7.1

SAC defense29th of 30 · -7.9

DETBig

DET offense17th of 30 · -0.6

Backcourt-13.7 · 1 player

DETBig

Backcourt+10.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt-18.6 · 4 players

DETBig

Frontcourt+19.7 · 3 players

Bench-13.2 · 5 players

DETBig

Bench+22.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestSAC betterDET betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Kings

Guards

D. Acuff37 minE. Sharp18 minD. Plowden14 minM. Monk12 minN. Clifford8 minA. FlaglerNew

Forwards

D. Sabonis37 minD. Hunter29 minP. Achiuwa29 minL. Black29 minJ. Mogbo17 minA. Karaban10 min

Out

Z. LaVineDay-To-DayK. MurrayOut

Pistons

Guards

C. Cunningham34 minA. Thompson26 minD. Jenkins25 minE. Harkless21 minK. Huerter21 minJ. Green19 min

Forwards

D. Robinson30 minP. Reed27 minJ. Collins27 minT. Prince24 minR. Holland16 minT. Smith8 min

Centers

I. Jones5 min

Out

I. JoeOutJ. DurenOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SAC109.3 #22

DET109.8 #21

Points per possession

SAC1.03 #28

DET1.09 #18

Pace (possessions)

SAC106.0 #6

DET100.9 #29

Shooting

Effective FG%

SAC51.0 #23

DET53.1 #17

3-point %

SAC30.4 #27

DET36.3 #9

3-point attempt rate

SAC38.0 #27

DET43.3 #13

Free throw rate

SAC26.4 #20

DET28.9 #14

Possessions

Turnover rate

SAC15.9 #19

DET15.6 #17

Offensive rebound rate

SAC22.9 #28

DET27.2 #17

Assists per game

SAC24.5 #23

DET26.7 #15

Defense

Points allowed

SAC128.3 #29

DET101.8 #1

Points allowed per possession

SAC1.21 #29

DET1.01 #1

Opponent effective FG%

SAC60.4 #30

DET48.8 #2

Opponent 3-point %

SAC39.2 #27

DET32.5 #10

Turnovers forced

SAC14.6 #22

DET17.1 #6

Defensive rebound rate

SAC73.7 #12

DET72.8 #15

Steals per game

SAC8.0 #21

DET9.0 #12

Blocks per game

SAC2.3 #30

DET6.7 #4

SAC		DET
Scoring
109.3 #22	Points per game	109.8 #21
1.03 #28	Points per possession	1.09 #18
106.0 #6	Pace (possessions)	100.9 #29
Shooting
51.0 #23	Effective FG%	53.1 #17
30.4 #27	3-point %	36.3 #9
38.0 #27	3-point attempt rate	43.3 #13
26.4 #20	Free throw rate	28.9 #14
Possessions
15.9 #19	Turnover rate	15.6 #17
22.9 #28	Offensive rebound rate	27.2 #17
24.5 #23	Assists per game	26.7 #15
Defense
128.3 #29	Points allowed	101.8 #1
1.21 #29	Points allowed per possession	1.01 #1
60.4 #30	Opponent effective FG%	48.8 #2
39.2 #27	Opponent 3-point %	32.5 #10
14.6 #22	Turnovers forced	17.1 #6
73.7 #12	Defensive rebound rate	72.8 #15
8.0 #21	Steals per game	9.0 #12
2.3 #30	Blocks per game	6.7 #4

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Kings

0-6 overall · 0-6 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Grizzlies105–136
L@ Pelicans120–132
L@ Spurs103–130
Lvs Grizzlies112–123
Lvs Trail Blazers120–128

A week or more of rest.

Pistons

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Nets110–94
Wvs Hornets97–89
L@ Knicks97–111
W@ 76ers106–93
W@ Heat128–111

A week or more of rest.

Kings @ Pistons

What could decide it: DET has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Kings

Pistons

Pistons has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Kings

Pistons