Houston Rockets at Sacramento Kings: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Feb 7, 10:30 PM ETGolden 1 Center · at Kings · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Rockets and Kings
HOU	This season	SAC
6-1	Record	0-6
6-1	ATS	1-5
5-2	O/U	5-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HOU 124–107 · win probability HOU 88%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 230.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

HOU 8, SAC 1 · 2026-27 so far

HOUBig

Three-pointers

HOU hits 39.0% and allows 30.2%; SAC hits 30.4% and allows 39.2%. Threes are 38.1% and 38.0% of their shots

HOUBig

HOU offense vs SAC defense

Offense 6th of 30 against a defense 29th, on the model’s ratings

HOUBig

SAC offense vs HOU defense

Offense 27th of 30 against a defense 4th, on the model’s ratings

HOUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: HOU 56.6 and allows 52.1; SAC 51.0 and allows 60.4

HOUBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: HOU 31.9, SAC 26.4. Allowed: HOU 24.7, SAC 31.2

HOUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: HOU 32.4%, SAC 22.9%. Defensive: HOU 73.2%, SAC 73.7%

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: HOU plays 101.6 a game (24th fastest), SAC 106.0 (6th). Faster games mean more points

HOUBig

Recent form

Last 5: HOU 4-1 ATS, margin +13.0; SAC 1-4 ATS, margin -17.8

HOUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: HOU 15.1%, SAC 15.9%. Forced: HOU 15.7%, SAC 14.6%

SACSmall

Home court

SAC at home. This season: SAC 0-2 at home, HOU 3-1 away

Context

Schedule so far

HOU has played the 12th-hardest schedule, SAC the 8th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: HOU 100%, SAC 100%. Transfers in: HOU 0, SAC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU WWWLW	6-1	86%	3-1	—
SAC WLLLL	1-5	17%	1-1	—

Venue/role: HOU away; SAC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU OOOOU	5-2	71%	6-1
SAC OOOOO	5-1	83%	0-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOUlast 7	6-1 86%	6-1 86%	5-2 71%
SAClast 6	0-6 0%	1-5 17%	5-1 83%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Rockets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 9	@ UTAH	W140–106WO
Feb 11	vs SAC	W128–97WO
Feb 12	@ NO	W134–102WO

Kings

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 9	@ MIL	L98–115LU
Feb 11	@ HOU	L97–128LO
Feb 13	@ IND	W114–109WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

HOU 6–12 SACSAC leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · HOU 7-10-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 25, 2025-26	SAC 97 @ HOU 128	HOU -13.5	HOU W
Jan 11, 2025-26	HOU 98 @ SAC 111	SAC +14.5	SAC W
Dec 21, 2025-26	HOU 124 @ SAC 125	SAC +12.5	SAC W
Dec 3, 2025-26	SAC 95 @ HOU 121	HOU -15.5	HOU W
Mar 1, 2024-25	SAC 113 @ HOU 103	HOU -3.5	SAC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Rockets

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +8.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-2

71% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-271%

O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsDAL	W 128-110	-9.5	W +8.5	230.5	O 238
Oct 23	@SA	W 114-110	+4.5	W +8.5	224.5	U 224
Oct 24	@ATL	W 121-114	-1.5	W +5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	vsATL	W 120-110	-4.5	W +5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	@MIL	W 132-100	-8.5	W +23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 30	@DAL	L 111-116	-5.5	L −10.5	223.5	O 227
Oct 31	vsOKC	W 119-98	-2.5	W +18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+8.5

W 114-110

+8.5

ATL

W 121-114

+5.5

ATL

W 120-110

+5.5

MIL

W 132-100

+23.5

DAL

L 111-116

−10.5

OKC

W 119-98

+18.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+7.5

W 114-110

−0.5

ATL

W 121-114

+7.5

ATL

W 120-110

+1.5

MIL

W 132-100

+5.5

DAL

L 111-116

+3.5

OKC

W 119-98

−2.5

over 5under 2avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Kings

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −10.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAC	L 96-121	+5.5	L −19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	vsPOR	L 120-128	+9.5	W +1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 25	vsMEM	L 112-123	+3.5	L −7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 27	@SA	L 103-130	+19.5	L −7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 29	@NO	L 120-132	+6.5	L −5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	@MEM	L 105-136	+7.5	L −23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−19.5

POR

L 120-128

+1.5

MEM

L 112-123

−7.5

L 103-130

−7.5

L 120-132

−5.5

MEM

L 105-136

−23.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −10.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−9.5

POR

L 120-128

+16.5

MEM

L 112-123

+0.5

L 103-130

+0.5

L 120-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-136

+11.5

over 5under 1avg +6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Rockets has the better starters

Position by position: Rockets 5, Kings 0, even 0

RocketsBetterKings

G A. Thompson16.3 pts · 6.6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 60

HOUBig

G D. Acuff26.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 6.3 ast Score 4

G F. VanVleet13 pts · 4 reb · 6.4 ast Score 94

HOUBig

F D. Sabonis16 pts · 15.8 reb · 7.3 ast Score 26

F J. Smith19 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.7 ast Score 79

HOUBig

F D. Hunter14 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 38

F K. Durant22 pts · 5.6 reb · 3.3 ast Score 82

HOUBig

F P. Achiuwa12.5 pts · 6 reb · 1 ast Score 7

C A. Sengun22.8 pts · 9 reb · 7.4 ast Score 84

HOUBig

F L. Black7.1 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 13

RocketsBetterKings

HOU offense6th of 30 · +2.9

HOUBig

SAC defense29th of 30 · -7.9

HOU defense4th of 30 · +5.2

HOUBig

SAC offense27th of 30 · -3.0

Backcourt+19.1 · 2 players

HOUBig

Backcourt-13.7 · 1 player

Frontcourt+30.0 · 3 players

HOUBig

Frontcourt-18.6 · 4 players

Bench+16.2 · 5 players

HOUBig

Bench-13.2 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestHOU betterSAC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Rockets

Guards

A. Thompson34 minF. VanVleet31 minM. Smart25 minB. Bogdanovic15 minS. Pedulla4 minB. Thornton3 min

Forwards

J. Smith34 minK. Durant34 minT. Eason24 minJ. Tate9 minI. Crawford7 min

Centers

A. Sengun34 minO. Tshiebwe17 min

Out

S. AdamsOutC. CapelaDay-To-DayR. SheppardDay-To-Day

Kings

Guards

D. Acuff37 minE. Sharp18 minD. Plowden14 minM. Monk12 minN. Clifford8 minA. FlaglerNew

Forwards

D. Sabonis37 minD. Hunter29 minP. Achiuwa29 minL. Black29 minJ. Mogbo17 minA. Karaban10 min

Out

Z. LaVineDay-To-DayK. MurrayOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

HOU120.7 #3

SAC109.3 #22

Points per possession

HOU1.20 #1

SAC1.03 #28

Pace (possessions)

HOU101.6 #24

SAC106.0 #6

Shooting

Effective FG%

HOU56.6 #3

SAC51.0 #23

3-point %

HOU39.0 #3

SAC30.4 #27

3-point attempt rate

HOU38.1 #26

SAC38.0 #27

Free throw rate

HOU31.9 #8

SAC26.4 #20

Possessions

Turnover rate

HOU15.1 #13

SAC15.9 #19

Offensive rebound rate

HOU32.4 #3

SAC22.9 #28

Assists per game

HOU28.1 #5

SAC24.5 #23

Defense

Points allowed

HOU108.3 #7

SAC128.3 #29

Points allowed per possession

HOU1.06 #8

SAC1.21 #29

Opponent effective FG%

HOU52.1 #10

SAC60.4 #30

Opponent 3-point %

HOU30.2 #4

SAC39.2 #27

Turnovers forced

HOU15.7 #16

SAC14.6 #22

Defensive rebound rate

HOU73.2 #14

SAC73.7 #12

Steals per game

HOU9.7 #6

SAC8.0 #21

Blocks per game

HOU5.9 #8

SAC2.3 #30

HOU		SAC
Scoring
120.7 #3	Points per game	109.3 #22
1.20 #1	Points per possession	1.03 #28
101.6 #24	Pace (possessions)	106.0 #6
Shooting
56.6 #3	Effective FG%	51.0 #23
39.0 #3	3-point %	30.4 #27
38.1 #26	3-point attempt rate	38.0 #27
31.9 #8	Free throw rate	26.4 #20
Possessions
15.1 #13	Turnover rate	15.9 #19
32.4 #3	Offensive rebound rate	22.9 #28
28.1 #5	Assists per game	24.5 #23
Defense
108.3 #7	Points allowed	128.3 #29
1.06 #8	Points allowed per possession	1.21 #29
52.1 #10	Opponent effective FG%	60.4 #30
30.2 #4	Opponent 3-point %	39.2 #27
15.7 #16	Turnovers forced	14.6 #22
73.2 #14	Defensive rebound rate	73.7 #12
9.7 #6	Steals per game	8.0 #21
5.9 #8	Blocks per game	2.3 #30

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Rockets

6-1 overall · 3-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Thunder119–98
L@ Mavericks111–116
W@ Bucks132–100
Wvs Hawks120–110
W@ Hawks121–114

A week or more of rest.

Kings

0-6 overall · 0-6 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Grizzlies105–136
L@ Pelicans120–132
L@ Spurs103–130
Lvs Grizzlies112–123
Lvs Trail Blazers120–128

A week or more of rest.

Rockets @ Kings

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Rockets

Kings

Rockets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Rockets

Kings