Sacramento Kings at Indiana Pacers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Feb 13, 2:00 PM ETGainbridge Fieldhouse · at Pacers

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Kings and Pacers
SAC	This season	IND
0-6	Record	2-5
1-5	ATS	3-4
5-1	O/U	3-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects IND 120–116 · win probability IND 62%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 235.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 224-242 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: IND has more of the edges

SAC 0, IND 5 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

SAC has played the 8th-hardest schedule, IND the 29th. A record against a soft schedule means less

INDBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: SAC 51.0 and allows 60.4; IND 53.9 and allows 53.9

INDSmall

Three-pointers

SAC hits 30.4% and allows 39.2%; IND hits 34.1% and allows 35.9%. Threes are 38.0% and 43.1% of their shots

INDSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SAC 15.9%, IND 14.8%. Forced: SAC 14.6%, IND 14.9%

INDSmall

IND offense vs SAC defense

Offense 24th of 30 against a defense 29th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 105 possessions: SAC plays 106.0 a game (6th fastest), IND 103.1 (15th). Faster games mean more points

INDSmall

Home court

IND at home. This season: IND 0-3 at home, SAC 0-4 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: SAC 1-4 ATS, margin -17.8; IND 2-3 ATS, margin -2.8

Even

SAC offense vs IND defense

Offense 27th of 30 against a defense 25th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: SAC 26.4, IND 31.2. Allowed: SAC 31.2, IND 32.1

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SAC 22.9%, IND 23.1%. Defensive: SAC 73.7%, IND 72.7%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SAC 100%, IND 100%. Transfers in: SAC 0, IND 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SAC WLLLL	1-5	17%	0-4	—
IND WLWLL	3-4	43%	1-2	—

Venue/role: SAC away; IND home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SAC OOOOO	5-1	83%	0-6
IND OUUOU	3-4	43%	2-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SAClast 6	0-6 0%	1-5 17%	5-1 83%
INDlast 7	2-5 29%	3-4 43%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Kings

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 14	@ ATL	L113–123WO
Feb 17	vs IND	W114–109WU
Feb 25	@ CLE	L126–132WO

Pacers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 15	@ GS	L83–114LU
Feb 17	@ SAC	L109–114LU
Feb 18	@ POR	L119–127WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

SAC 4–6 INDIND leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · SAC 5-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 10, 2025-26	IND 109 @ SAC 114	SAC -3.5	SAC W
Dec 8, 2025-26	SAC 105 @ IND 116	IND -3.5	IND W
Mar 31, 2024-25	SAC 109 @ IND 111	IND -3.5	SAC W
Dec 22, 2024-25	IND 122 @ SAC 95	SAC -3.5	IND W
Feb 2, 2023-24	SAC 133 @ IND 122	IND +3.5	SAC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Kings

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −10.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAC	L 96-121	+5.5	L −19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	vsPOR	L 120-128	+9.5	W +1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 25	vsMEM	L 112-123	+3.5	L −7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 27	@SA	L 103-130	+19.5	L −7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 29	@NO	L 120-132	+6.5	L −5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	@MEM	L 105-136	+7.5	L −23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−19.5

POR

L 120-128

+1.5

MEM

L 112-123

−7.5

L 103-130

−7.5

L 120-132

−5.5

MEM

L 105-136

−23.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −10.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−9.5

POR

L 120-128

+16.5

MEM

L 112-123

+0.5

L 103-130

+0.5

L 120-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-136

+11.5

over 5under 1avg +6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Pacers

7 games played

Straight up

2-5

29% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −4.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −6.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-529%

W L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

O U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@NO	W 123-120	-2.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	vsDAL	L 105-121	-7.5	L −23.5	241.5	U 226
Oct 25	@BKN	W 136-109	-5.5	W +21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 26	@MIL	L 102-110	-3.5	L −11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsPHI	L 109-114	+7.5	W +2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	@MIA	L 125-145	+8.5	L −11.5	236.5	O 270
Nov 1	vsBKN	L 90-98	-3.5	L −11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 123-120

+0.5

DAL

L 105-121

−23.5

BKN

W 136-109

+21.5

MIL

L 102-110

−11.5

PHI

L 109-114

+2.5

MIA

L 125-145

−11.5

BKN

L 90-98

−11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 123-120

+4.5

DAL

L 105-121

−15.5

BKN

W 136-109

+13.5

MIL

L 102-110

−27.5

PHI

L 109-114

−11.5

MIA

L 125-145

+33.5

BKN

L 90-98

−42.5

over 3under 4avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Kings 2, Pacers 2, even 1

KingsBetterPacers

G D. Acuff26.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 6.3 ast Score 4

INDSmall

G K. Oubre9.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 32

F D. Sabonis16 pts · 15.8 reb · 7.3 ast Score 26

SACSmall

G Q. Jackson8.7 pts · 2.4 reb · 2.7 ast Score 9

F D. Hunter14 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 38

SACBig

F J. Walker6.9 pts · 6 reb · 2 ast Score 1

F P. Achiuwa12.5 pts · 6 reb · 1 ast Score 7

INDSmall

F J. Slawson2.7 pts · 3 reb · 0.7 ast Score 41

F L. Black7.1 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 13

Even

C J. Huff6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 10

KingsBetterPacers

SAC offense27th of 30 · -3.0

Even

IND defense25th of 30 · -3.8

SAC defense29th of 30 · -7.9

INDSmall

IND offense24th of 30 · -2.3

Backcourt-13.7 · 1 player

INDBig

Backcourt-5.7 · 2 players

Frontcourt-18.6 · 4 players

Even

Frontcourt-18.1 · 3 players

Bench-13.2 · 5 players

INDBig

Bench-6.5 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestSAC betterIND betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Kings

Guards

D. Acuff37 minE. Sharp18 minD. Plowden14 minM. Monk12 minN. Clifford8 minA. FlaglerNew

Forwards

D. Sabonis37 minD. Hunter29 minP. Achiuwa29 minL. Black29 minJ. Mogbo17 minA. Karaban10 min

Out

Z. LaVineDay-To-DayK. MurrayOut

Pacers

Guards

K. Oubre23 minQ. Jackson20 minK. Brown12 minB. Smith6 min

Forwards

J. Walker22 minJ. Slawson13 min

Centers

J. Huff17 min

Out

L. NanceDay-To-DayP. SiakamOutI. ZubacOutO. ToppinDay-To-DayA. NembhardOutT. HaliburtonOutB. SheppardOutA. NesmithOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

SAC

IND

Scoring

109.3Points per game112.9

1.03Points per possession1.10

106.0Pace (possessions)103.1

Shooting

51.0Effective FG%53.9

30.43-point %34.1

38.03-point attempt rate43.1

26.4Free throw rate31.2

Possessions

15.9Turnover rate14.8

22.9Offensive rebound rate23.1

24.5Assists per game28.0

Defense

128.3Points allowed116.7

1.21Points allowed per possession1.13

60.4Opponent effective FG%53.9

39.2Opponent 3-point %35.9

14.6Turnovers forced14.9

73.7Defensive rebound rate72.7

8.0Steals per game6.9

2.3Blocks per game4.0

SAC		IND
Scoring
109.3 #22	Points per game	112.9 #18
1.03 #28	Points per possession	1.10 #17
106.0 #6	Pace (possessions)	103.1 #15
Shooting
51.0 #23	Effective FG%	53.9 #14
30.4 #27	3-point %	34.1 #18
38.0 #27	3-point attempt rate	43.1 #15
26.4 #20	Free throw rate	31.2 #12
Possessions
15.9 #19	Turnover rate	14.8 #10
22.9 #28	Offensive rebound rate	23.1 #27
24.5 #23	Assists per game	28.0 #7
Defense
128.3 #29	Points allowed	116.7 #23
1.21 #29	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #23
60.4 #30	Opponent effective FG%	53.9 #19
39.2 #27	Opponent 3-point %	35.9 #20
14.6 #22	Turnovers forced	14.9 #19
73.7 #12	Defensive rebound rate	72.7 #16
8.0 #21	Steals per game	6.9 #27
2.3 #30	Blocks per game	4.0 #26

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row, and the better team's bar is solid; hover or tap a row for both teams' numbers and ranks. In the table, a green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Kings

0-6 overall · 0-6 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Grizzlies105–136
L@ Pelicans120–132
L@ Spurs103–130
Lvs Grizzlies112–123
Lvs Trail Blazers120–128

A week or more of rest.

Pacers

2-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nets90–98
L@ Heat125–145
Lvs 76ers109–114
L@ Bucks102–110
W@ Nets136–109

A week or more of rest.

Kings @ Pacers

What could decide it: IND has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Kings

Pacers

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Kings

Pacers