Chase Center · at Warriors
LineNo line yet
Total—
 IND | This season | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 4-3 |
| 3-4 | ATS | 5-2 |
| 3-4 | O/U | 4-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects GS 121–112 · win probability GS 75%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 233.0
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: GS has more of the edges
IND 0, GS 7 · 2026-27 so far
Context
Schedule so far
IND has played the 29th-hardest schedule, GS the 6th. A record against a soft schedule means less
GSBigGS offense vs IND defense
Offense 9th of 30 against a defense 25th, on the model’s ratings
GSBigIND offense vs GS defense
Offense 24th of 30 against a defense 14th, on the model’s ratings
GSBigThree-pointers
IND hits 34.1% and allows 35.9%; GS hits 40.0% and allows 35.2%. Threes are 43.1% and 47.1% of their shots
GSBigRebounding
Offensive rebound rate: IND 23.1%, GS 33.2%. Defensive: IND 72.7%, GS 70.4%
GSBigRecent form
Last 5: IND 2-3 ATS, margin -2.8; GS 5-0 ATS, margin +9.0
GSSmallFree throws
Free throw rate: IND 31.2, GS 28.8. Allowed: IND 32.1, GS 27.3
Context
Tempo
About 102 possessions: IND plays 103.1 a game (15th fastest), GS 101.4 (25th). Faster games mean more points
GSSmallHome court
GS at home. This season: GS 2-1 at home, IND 2-2 away
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: IND 14.8%, GS 16.7%. Forced: IND 14.9%, GS 17.6%
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: IND 53.9 and allows 53.9; GS 55.3 and allows 56.0
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: IND 100%, GS 100%. Transfers in: IND 0, GS 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelGS -9.2
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model233.0
Model edge—
Projected score
IND 111.9 · GS 121.1
Win probability
GS 75%
1st half
Spread
GS -5.1
Total
116.5
Projected score
IND 55.7 · GS 60.8
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| INDlast 7 | 2-5 29% | 3-4 43% | 3-4 43% |
| GSlast 7 | 4-3 57% | 5-2 71% | 4-3 57% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22
IND 7–3 GSIND leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · IND 8-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2025-26 | IND 83 @ GS 114 | GS -13.5 | GS W |
| Nov 1, 2025-26 | GS 109 @ IND 114 | IND +10.5 | IND W |
| Jan 10, 2024-25 | GS 96 @ IND 108 | IND -10.5 | IND W |
| Dec 23, 2024-25 | IND 111 @ GS 105 | GS -5.5 | IND W |
| Mar 22, 2023-24 | IND 123 @ GS 111 | GS -4.5 | IND W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Pacers
7 games played
Straight up
2-5
29% wins
Against the spread
3-4
43% covers · avg −4.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-4
43% overs · avg −6.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 | @ NO | W 123-120 | -2.5 | W +0.5 | 238.5 | O 243 |
| Oct 23 | vs DAL | L 105-121 | -7.5 | L −23.5 | 241.5 | U 226 |
| Oct 25 | @ BKN | W 136-109 | -5.5 | W +21.5 | 231.5 | O 245 |
| Oct 26 | @ MIL | L 102-110 | -3.5 | L −11.5 | 239.5 | U 212 |
| Oct 28 | vs PHI | L 109-114 | +7.5 | W +2.5 | 234.5 | U 223 |
| Oct 30 | @ MIA | L 125-145 | +8.5 | L −11.5 | 236.5 | O 270 |
| Nov 1 | vsBKN | L 90-98 | -3.5 | L −11.5 | 230.5 | U 188 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@NO
NOW 123-120
+0.5
23
vsDAL
DALL 105-121
−23.5
25
@BKN
BKNW 136-109
+21.5
26
@MIL
MILL 102-110
−11.5
28
vsPHI
PHIL 109-114
+2.5
30
@MIA
MIAL 125-145
−11.5
1
vsBKN
BKNL 90-98
−11.5
covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@NO
NOW 123-120
+4.5
23
vsDAL
DALL 105-121
−15.5
25
@BKN
BKNW 136-109
+13.5
26
@MIL
MILL 102-110
−27.5
28
vsPHI
PHIL 109-114
−11.5
30
@MIA
MIAL 125-145
+33.5
1
vsBKN
BKNL 90-98
−42.5
over 3under 4avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Warriors
7 games played
Straight up
4-3
57% wins
Against the spread
5-2
71% covers · avg +6.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-3
57% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 | @ LAL | L 105-127 | +6.5 | L −15.5 | 233.5 | U 232 |
| Oct 23 | vs MEM | L 108-111 | -4.5 | L −7.5 | 236.5 | U 219 |
| Oct 24 | @ PHX | L 122-131 | +9.5 | W +0.5 | 221.5 | O 253 |
| Oct 26 | @ DEN | W 134-114 | +6.5 | W +26.5 | 236.5 | O 248 |
| Oct 28 | @ MIN | W 119-114 | +3.5 | W +8.5 | 227.5 | O 233 |
| Oct 30 | vsLAL | W 112-95 | +2.5 | W +19.5 | 234.5 | U 207 |
| Nov 1 | vs LAC | W 124-112 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 220.5 | O 236 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@LAL
LALL 105-127
−15.5
23
vsMEM
MEML 108-111
−7.5
24
@PHX
PHXL 122-131
+0.5
26
@DEN
DENW 134-114
+26.5
28
@MIN
MINW 119-114
+8.5
30
vsLAL
LALW 112-95
+19.5
1
vsLAC
LACW 124-112
+10.5
covered 5didn’t cover 2avg +6.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@LAL
LALL 105-127
−1.5
23
vsMEM
MEML 108-111
−17.5
24
@PHX
PHXL 122-131
+31.5
26
@DEN
DENW 134-114
+11.5
28
@MIN
MINW 119-114
+5.5
30
vsLAL
LALW 112-95
−27.5
1
vsLAC
LACW 124-112
+15.5
over 4under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Warriors has the better starters
Position by position: Pacers 1, Warriors 2, even 2
PacersBetterWarriors
G A. Nembhard18.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 7.3 ast
Score 70
=Even
G B. Podziemski16.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 5.6 ast
Score 72
G K. Oubre9.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.6 ast
Score 32
→GSSmall
G D. Melton11.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 2.3 ast
Score 62
G A. Nesmith12.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.8 ast
Score 65
←INDBig
G B. Williams11.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.4 ast
Score 5
F P. Siakam21.4 pts · 7.4 reb · 4 ast
Score 74
=Even
F Y. Lendeborg22.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 3.7 ast
Score 78
C J. Huff6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast
Score 10
→GSBig
F G. Niang6.4 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast
Score 72
PacersBetterWarriors
IND offense24th of 30 · -2.3
→GSSmall
GS defense14th of 30 · +0.3
IND defense25th of 30 · -3.8
→GSBig
GS offense9th of 30 · +1.9
Backcourt+10.3 · 3 players
←INDBig
Backcourt+5.3 · 3 players
Frontcourt+4.0 · 2 players
→GSBig
Frontcourt+12.0 · 2 players
Bench-26.3 · 5 players
→GSBig
Bench+5.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestIND betterGS betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
PacersGuards
A. Nembhard33 minK. Oubre23 minA. Nesmith23 minQ. Jackson20 minK. Brown12 minB. Smith6 min
Forwards
P. Siakam32 minJ. Walker22 minL. Nance16 minJ. Slawson13 min
Centers
J. Huff17 min
Out
I. ZubacOutO. ToppinDay-To-DayT. HaliburtonOutB. SheppardOut
WarriorsGuards
B. Podziemski34 minD. Melton22 minB. Williams17 minW. Richard16 minL. Cryer16 minG. Payton13 min
Forwards
Y. Lendeborg32 minG. Niang20 minG. Ike12 minM. Leons11 min
Centers
A. Horford19 minC. Bassey9 min
Out
S. CurryDay-To-DayG. SantosOutD. GreenDay-To-Day
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
IND112.9 #18GS117.7 #11Points per possession
IND1.10 #17GS1.17 #3Pace (possessions)
IND103.1 #15GS101.4 #25Shooting
Effective FG%
IND53.9 #14GS55.3 #83-point %
IND34.1 #18GS40.0 #23-point attempt rate
IND43.1 #15GS47.1 #5Free throw rate
IND31.2 #12GS28.8 #15Possessions
Turnover rate
IND14.8 #10GS16.7 #22Offensive rebound rate
IND23.1 #27GS33.2 #1Assists per game
IND28.0 #7GS27.4 #10Defense
Points allowed
IND116.7 #23GS114.9 #16Points allowed per possession
IND1.13 #23GS1.13 #21Opponent effective FG%
IND53.9 #19GS56.0 #25Opponent 3-point %
IND35.9 #20GS35.2 #16Turnovers forced
IND14.9 #19GS17.6 #5Defensive rebound rate
IND72.7 #16GS70.4 #23Steals per game
IND6.9 #27GS9.1 #11Blocks per game
IND4.0 #26GS4.1 #24| IND | GS | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 112.9 #18 | Points per game | 117.7 #11 |
| 1.10 #17 | Points per possession | 1.17 #3 |
| 103.1 #15 | Pace (possessions) | 101.4 #25 |
| Shooting | ||
| 53.9 #14 | Effective FG% | 55.3 #8 |
| 34.1 #18 | 3-point % | 40.0 #2 |
| 43.1 #15 | 3-point attempt rate | 47.1 #5 |
| 31.2 #12 | Free throw rate | 28.8 #15 |
| Possessions | ||
| 14.8 #10 | Turnover rate | 16.7 #22 |
| 23.1 #27 | Offensive rebound rate | 33.2 #1 |
| 28.0 #7 | Assists per game | 27.4 #10 |
| Defense | ||
| 116.7 #23 | Points allowed | 114.9 #16 |
| 1.13 #23 | Points allowed per possession | 1.13 #21 |
| 53.9 #19 | Opponent effective FG% | 56.0 #25 |
| 35.9 #20 | Opponent 3-point % | 35.2 #16 |
| 14.9 #19 | Turnovers forced | 17.6 #5 |
| 72.7 #16 | Defensive rebound rate | 70.4 #23 |
| 6.9 #27 | Steals per game | 9.1 #11 |
| 4.0 #26 | Blocks per game | 4.1 #24 |
Pacers
2-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Lvs Nets90–98
- L@ Heat125–145
- Lvs 76ers109–114
- L@ Bucks102–110
- W@ Nets136–109
A week or more of rest.
Warriors
4-3 overall · 4-3 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Clippers124–112
- Wvs Lakers112–95
- W@ Timberwolves119–114
- W@ Nuggets134–114
- L@ Suns122–131
A week or more of rest.