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NBA · Mon, Mar 1

Warriors @ Rockets

Toyota Center (Houston) · at Rockets · Conference game
#13GSWarriors
@
#1HOURockets
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
GSThis seasonHOU
4-3Record6-1
5-2ATS6-1
4-3O/U5-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HOU 119–110 · win probability HOU 74%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 228.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

GS 0, HOU 6 · 2026-27 so far
HOUBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: GS 55.3 and allows 56.0; HOU 56.6 and allows 52.1
HOUSmall
HOU offense vs GS defense
Offense 6th of 30 against a defense 14th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
GS has played the 6th-hardest schedule, HOU the 12th. A record against a soft schedule means less
HOUSmall
Three-pointers
GS hits 40.0% and allows 35.2%; HOU hits 39.0% and allows 30.2%. Threes are 47.1% and 38.1% of their shots
HOUSmall
GS offense vs HOU defense
Offense 9th of 30 against a defense 4th, on the model’s ratings
HOUSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: GS 28.8, HOU 31.9. Allowed: GS 27.3, HOU 24.7
HOUSmall
Home court
HOU at home. This season: HOU 3-0 at home, GS 2-2 away
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: GS 33.2%, HOU 32.4%. Defensive: GS 70.4%, HOU 73.2%
Even
Recent form
Last 5: GS 5-0 ATS, margin +9.0; HOU 4-1 ATS, margin +13.0
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: GS 16.7%, HOU 15.1%. Forced: GS 17.6%, HOU 15.7%
Context
Tempo
About 101 possessions: GS plays 101.4 a game (25th fastest), HOU 101.6 (24th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: GS 100%, HOU 100%. Transfers in: GS 0, HOU 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelHOU -8.9
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model228.3
Model edge—
Projected score
GS 109.7 · HOU 118.6
Win probability
HOU 74%
1st half
Spread
HOU -4.9
Total
114.4
Projected score
GS 54.8 · HOU 59.6
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Rockets has the better starters

Position by position: Warriors 0, Rockets 2, even 3
WarriorsBetterRockets
G B. Podziemski16.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 5.6 ast Score 72
Even
G A. Thompson16.3 pts · 6.6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 60
G D. Melton11.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 62
HOUSmall
G F. VanVleet13 pts · 4 reb · 6.4 ast Score 94
G B. Williams11.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.4 ast Score 5
HOUBig
F J. Smith19 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.7 ast Score 79
F Y. Lendeborg22.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 3.7 ast Score 78
Even
F K. Durant22 pts · 5.6 reb · 3.3 ast Score 82
F G. Niang6.4 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 72
Even
C A. Sengun22.8 pts · 9 reb · 7.4 ast Score 84
WarriorsBetterRockets
GS offense9th of 30 · +1.9
HOUSmall
HOU defense4th of 30 · +5.2
GS defense14th of 30 · +0.3
HOUSmall
HOU offense6th of 30 · +2.9
Backcourt+5.3 · 3 players
HOUBig
Backcourt+19.1 · 2 players
Frontcourt+12.0 · 2 players
HOUBig
Frontcourt+30.0 · 3 players
Bench+5.4 · 5 players
HOUBig
Bench+16.2 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestGS betterHOU betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Warriors
Guards
B. Podziemski34 minD. Melton22 minB. Williams17 minW. Richard16 minL. Cryer16 minG. Payton13 min
Forwards
Y. Lendeborg32 minG. Niang20 minG. Ike12 minM. Leons11 min
Centers
A. Horford19 minC. Bassey9 min
Out
S. CurryDay-To-DayG. SantosOutD. GreenDay-To-Day
Rockets
Guards
A. Thompson34 minF. VanVleet31 minM. Smart25 minB. Bogdanovic15 minS. Pedulla4 minB. Thornton3 min
Forwards
J. Smith34 minK. Durant34 minT. Eason24 minJ. Tate9 minI. Crawford7 min
Centers
A. Sengun34 minO. Tshiebwe17 min
Out
S. AdamsOutC. CapelaDay-To-DayR. SheppardDay-To-Day
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
GSHOU
Scoring
117.7 #11Points per game120.7 #3
1.17 #3Points per possession1.20 #1
101.4 #25Pace (possessions)101.6 #24
Shooting
55.3 #8Effective FG%56.6 #3
40.0 #23-point %39.0 #3
47.1 #53-point attempt rate38.1 #26
28.8 #15Free throw rate31.9 #8
Possessions
16.7 #22Turnover rate15.1 #13
33.2 #1Offensive rebound rate32.4 #3
27.4 #10Assists per game28.1 #5
Defense
114.9 #16Points allowed108.3 #7
1.13 #21Points allowed per possession1.06 #8
56.0 #25Opponent effective FG%52.1 #10
35.2 #16Opponent 3-point %30.2 #4
17.6 #5Turnovers forced15.7 #16
70.4 #23Defensive rebound rate73.2 #14
9.1 #11Steals per game9.7 #6
4.1 #24Blocks per game5.9 #8
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Warriors

4-3 overall · 4-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Clippers124–112
  • Wvs Lakers112–95
  • W@ Timberwolves119–114
  • W@ Nuggets134–114
  • L@ Suns122–131

A week or more of rest.

Rockets

6-1 overall · 3-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Thunder119–98
  • L@ Mavericks111–116
  • W@ Bucks132–100
  • Wvs Hawks120–110
  • W@ Hawks121–114

A week or more of rest.