Washington Wizards at Golden State Warriors: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Mar 4, 10:00 PM ETChase Center · at Warriors

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Wizards and Warriors
WSH	This season	GS
3-3	Record	4-3
3-3	ATS	5-2
1-5	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GS 121–112 · win probability GS 72%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 232.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GS has more of the edges

WSH 2, GS 7 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

WSH has played the 26th-hardest schedule, GS the 6th. A record against a soft schedule means less

GSBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: WSH 20.9%, GS 33.2%. Defensive: WSH 68.0%, GS 70.4%

GSBig

GS offense vs WSH defense

Offense 9th of 30 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings

GSBig

WSH offense vs GS defense

Offense 25th of 30 against a defense 14th, on the model’s ratings

WSHBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: WSH 34.2, GS 28.8. Allowed: WSH 21.8, GS 27.3

GSBig

Recent form

Last 5: WSH 2-3 ATS, margin -1.4; GS 5-0 ATS, margin +9.0

WSHSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: WSH 52.1 and allows 48.1; GS 55.3 and allows 56.0

GSSmall

Three-pointers

WSH hits 29.3% and allows 28.7%; GS hits 40.0% and allows 35.2%. Threes are 37.6% and 47.1% of their shots

GSSmall

Home court

GS at home. This season: GS 2-1 at home, WSH 1-2 away

GSSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: WSH 14.6%, GS 16.7%. Forced: WSH 13.3%, GS 17.6%

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: WSH plays 102.3 a game (20th fastest), GS 101.4 (25th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: WSH 100%, GS 100%. Transfers in: WSH 0, GS 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSH LWLLW	3-3	50%	1-2	—
GS WWWWW	5-2	71%	2-1	—

Venue/role: WSH away; GS home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSH UUUUU	1-5	17%	3-3
GS OOOUO	4-3	57%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSHlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%
GSlast 7	4-3 57%	5-2 71%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Wizards

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 6	vs UTAH	W133–110WO
Mar 9	@ SA	L113–124WU
Mar 11	@ DAL	L105–111LU

Warriors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 7	vs HOU	L116–117WO
Mar 9	vs POR	W119–97WU
Mar 10	@ SAC	L118–124LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

WSH 1–9 GSGS leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · GS has won the last 8 meetings · WSH 5-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 27, 2025-26	WSH 126 @ GS 131	GS -12.5	WSH W
Mar 16, 2025-26	GS 125 @ WSH 117	WSH +7.5	GS W
Jan 18, 2024-25	WSH 114 @ GS 122	GS -13.5	WSH W
Nov 4, 2024-25	GS 125 @ WSH 112	WSH +10.5	GS W
Feb 27, 2023-24	GS 123 @ WSH 112	WSH +11.5	WSH W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Wizards

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −14 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-517%

O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIL	W 128-116	-4.5	W +7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsTOR	L 102-112	+9.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 24	@CHI	W 124-120	+1.5	W +5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@CHA	L 103-110	+2.5	L −4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@CLE	L 111-121	+9.5	L −0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 30	vsCHA	W 95-79	-1.5	W +14.5	218.5	U 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+7.5

TOR

L 102-112

−0.5

CHI

W 124-120

+5.5

CHA

L 103-110

−4.5

CLE

L 111-121

−0.5

CHA

W 95-79

+14.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+4.5

TOR

L 102-112

−22.5

CHI

W 124-120

−0.5

CHA

L 103-110

−12.5

CLE

L 111-121

−8.5

CHA

W 95-79

−44.5

over 1under 5avg −14 ptslonger = bigger margin

Warriors

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

5-2

71% covers · avg +6.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

L L L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-271%

L L W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAL	L 105-127	+6.5	L −15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsMEM	L 108-111	-4.5	L −7.5	236.5	U 219
Oct 24	@PHX	L 122-131	+9.5	W +0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@DEN	W 134-114	+6.5	W +26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@MIN	W 119-114	+3.5	W +8.5	227.5	O 233
Oct 30	vsLAL	W 112-95	+2.5	W +19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsLAC	W 124-112	-1.5	W +10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAL

L 105-127

−15.5

MEM

L 108-111

−7.5

PHX

L 122-131

+0.5

DEN

W 134-114

+26.5

MIN

W 119-114

+8.5

LAL

W 112-95

+19.5

LAC

W 124-112

+10.5

covered 5didn’t cover 2avg +6.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAL

L 105-127

−1.5

MEM

L 108-111

−17.5

PHX

L 122-131

+31.5

DEN

W 134-114

+11.5

MIN

W 119-114

+5.5

LAL

W 112-95

−27.5

LAC

W 124-112

+15.5

over 4under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Warriors has the better starters

Position by position: Wizards 1, Warriors 3, even 1

WizardsBetterWarriors

G T. Young20.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 10.2 ast Score 23

GSBig

G B. Podziemski16.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 5.6 ast Score 72

G B. Coulibaly8.3 pts · 4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 4

GSBig

G D. Melton11.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 62

F A. Davis22.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 86

WSHBig

G B. Williams11.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.4 ast Score 5

F K. George15.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 36

GSBig

F Y. Lendeborg22.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 3.7 ast Score 78

F A. Dybantsa18 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Not ranked

No call

F G. Niang6.4 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 72

WizardsBetterWarriors

WSH offense25th of 30 · -2.5

GSBig

GS defense14th of 30 · +0.3

WSH defense23rd of 30 · -2.9

GSBig

GS offense9th of 30 · +1.9

Backcourt-12.8 · 2 players

GSBig

Backcourt+5.3 · 3 players

Frontcourt+11.5 · 3 players

Even

Frontcourt+12.0 · 2 players

Bench-14.5 · 5 players

GSBig

Bench+5.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestWSH betterGS betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Wizards

Guards

T. Young36 minB. Coulibaly26 minW. Riley22 minT. Johnson21 minB. Carrington20 minT. Mann13 min

Forwards

A. Davis34 minK. George32 minA. Dybantsa29 minK. Middleton14 minF. Okpara1 min

Centers

D. Ayton14 min

Out

A. GillDay-To-DayJ. ChampagnieOutA. SarrDay-To-Day

Warriors

Guards

B. Podziemski34 minD. Melton22 minB. Williams17 minW. Richard16 minL. Cryer16 minG. Payton13 min

Forwards

Y. Lendeborg32 minG. Niang20 minG. Ike12 minM. Leons11 min

Centers

A. Horford19 minC. Bassey9 min

Out

S. CurryDay-To-DayG. SantosOutD. GreenDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

WSH110.5 #20

GS117.7 #11

Points per possession

WSH1.08 #19

GS1.17 #3

Pace (possessions)

WSH102.3 #20

GS101.4 #25

Shooting

Effective FG%

WSH52.1 #20

GS55.3 #8

3-point %

WSH29.3 #29

GS40.0 #2

3-point attempt rate

WSH37.6 #28

GS47.1 #5

Free throw rate

WSH34.2 #5

GS28.8 #15

Possessions

Turnover rate

WSH14.6 #8

GS16.7 #22

Offensive rebound rate

WSH20.9 #29

GS33.2 #1

Assists per game

WSH24.5 #24

GS27.4 #10

Defense

Points allowed

WSH109.7 #11

GS114.9 #16

Points allowed per possession

WSH1.07 #11

GS1.13 #21

Opponent effective FG%

WSH48.1 #1

GS56.0 #25

Opponent 3-point %

WSH28.7 #1

GS35.2 #16

Turnovers forced

WSH13.3 #27

GS17.6 #5

Defensive rebound rate

WSH68.0 #28

GS70.4 #23

Steals per game

WSH7.2 #24

GS9.1 #11

Blocks per game

WSH5.3 #9

GS4.1 #24

WSH		GS
Scoring
110.5 #20	Points per game	117.7 #11
1.08 #19	Points per possession	1.17 #3
102.3 #20	Pace (possessions)	101.4 #25
Shooting
52.1 #20	Effective FG%	55.3 #8
29.3 #29	3-point %	40.0 #2
37.6 #28	3-point attempt rate	47.1 #5
34.2 #5	Free throw rate	28.8 #15
Possessions
14.6 #8	Turnover rate	16.7 #22
20.9 #29	Offensive rebound rate	33.2 #1
24.5 #24	Assists per game	27.4 #10
Defense
109.7 #11	Points allowed	114.9 #16
1.07 #11	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #21
48.1 #1	Opponent effective FG%	56.0 #25
28.7 #1	Opponent 3-point %	35.2 #16
13.3 #27	Turnovers forced	17.6 #5
68.0 #28	Defensive rebound rate	70.4 #23
7.2 #24	Steals per game	9.1 #11
5.3 #9	Blocks per game	4.1 #24

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Wizards

3-3 overall · 3-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hornets95–79
L@ Cavaliers111–121
L@ Hornets103–110
W@ Bulls124–120
Lvs Raptors102–112

A week or more of rest.

Warriors

4-3 overall · 4-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Clippers124–112
Wvs Lakers112–95
W@ Timberwolves119–114
W@ Nuggets134–114
L@ Suns122–131

A week or more of rest.

Wizards @ Warriors

What could decide it: GS has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Wizards

Warriors

Warriors has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Wizards

Warriors