Oklahoma City Thunder at Sacramento Kings: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Mar 4, 10:00 PM ETGolden 1 Center · at Kings · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Thunder and Kings
OKC	This season	SAC
4-2	Record	0-6
3-3	ATS	1-5
1-5	O/U	5-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects OKC 120–108 · win probability OKC 80%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 227.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: OKC has more of the edges

OKC 7, SAC 1 · 2026-27 so far

OKCBig

SAC offense vs OKC defense

Offense 27th of 30 against a defense 2nd, on the model’s ratings

OKCBig

OKC offense vs SAC defense

Offense 18th of 30 against a defense 29th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: OKC plays 101.1 a game (27th fastest), SAC 106.0 (6th). Faster games mean more points

OKCBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: OKC 14.5%, SAC 15.9%. Forced: OKC 15.8%, SAC 14.6%

OKCBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: OKC 49.5 and allows 51.0; SAC 51.0 and allows 60.4

OKCSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: OKC 28.5%, SAC 22.9%. Defensive: OKC 71.4%, SAC 73.7%

OKCSmall

Three-pointers

OKC hits 30.9% and allows 35.3%; SAC hits 30.4% and allows 39.2%. Threes are 35.8% and 38.0% of their shots

SACSmall

Home court

SAC at home. This season: SAC 0-2 at home, OKC 1-2 away

OKCSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: OKC 21.8, SAC 26.4. Allowed: OKC 23.4, SAC 31.2

Context

Schedule so far

OKC has played the 5th-hardest schedule, SAC the 8th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Recent form

Last 5: OKC 2-3 ATS, margin -3.0; SAC 1-4 ATS, margin -17.8

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: OKC 100%, SAC 100%. Transfers in: OKC 0, SAC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OKC WLWLL	3-3	50%	1-2	—
SAC WLLLL	1-5	17%	1-1	—

Venue/role: OKC away; SAC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
OKC UUOUU	1-5	17%	4-2
SAC OOOOO	5-1	83%	0-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OKClast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%
SAClast 6	0-6 0%	1-5 17%	5-1 83%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Thunder

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 6	@ LAL	W115–110LO
Mar 8	vs DAL	L96–120LU
Mar 10	@ TOR	W116–107WO

Kings

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 6	vs LAC	L96–121LU
Mar 8	vs DEN	L105–136LO
Mar 10	vs GS	W124–118WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 17 since 2021-22

OKC 9–8 SACOKC leads · 17 games since 2021-22 · OKC has won the last 8 meetings · OKC 8-9 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 19, 2025-26	SAC 99 @ OKC 113	OKC -18.5	SAC W
Nov 7, 2025-26	OKC 132 @ SAC 101	SAC +11.5	OKC W
Oct 28, 2025-26	SAC 101 @ OKC 107	OKC -8.5	SAC W
Mar 25, 2024-25	OKC 121 @ SAC 105	SAC +8.5	OKC W
Feb 1, 2024-25	SAC 110 @ OKC 144	OKC -7.5	OKC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Thunder

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −12.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@SA	W 116-104	-1.5	W +10.5	229.5	U 220
Oct 22	vsDEN	W 96-84	-7.5	W +4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 25	vsLAC	W 108-101	-16.5	L −9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 26	vsPHX	W 125-114	-8.5	W +2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 28	@DAL	L 96-120	-4.5	L −28.5	227.5	U 216
Oct 31	@HOU	L 98-119	+2.5	L −18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 116-104

+10.5

DEN

W 96-84

+4.5

LAC

W 108-101

−9.5

PHX

W 125-114

+2.5

DAL

L 96-120

−28.5

HOU

L 98-119

−18.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 116-104

−9.5

DEN

W 96-84

−56.5

LAC

W 108-101

−14.5

PHX

W 125-114

+17.5

DAL

L 96-120

−11.5

HOU

L 98-119

−2.5

over 1under 5avg −12.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Kings

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −10.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAC	L 96-121	+5.5	L −19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	vsPOR	L 120-128	+9.5	W +1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 25	vsMEM	L 112-123	+3.5	L −7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 27	@SA	L 103-130	+19.5	L −7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 29	@NO	L 120-132	+6.5	L −5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	@MEM	L 105-136	+7.5	L −23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−19.5

POR

L 120-128

+1.5

MEM

L 112-123

−7.5

L 103-130

−7.5

L 120-132

−5.5

MEM

L 105-136

−23.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −10.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−9.5

POR

L 120-128

+16.5

MEM

L 112-123

+0.5

L 103-130

+0.5

L 120-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-136

+11.5

over 5under 1avg +6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Thunder has the better starters

Position by position: Thunder 4, Kings 1, even 0

ThunderBetterKings

G S. Gilgeous-Alexander26 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 88

OKCBig

G D. Acuff26.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 6.3 ast Score 4

G A. Mitchell16.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 99

OKCBig

F D. Sabonis16 pts · 15.8 reb · 7.3 ast Score 26

G J. McCain10.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 8

SACSmall

F D. Hunter14 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 38

G K. Williams5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 40

OKCSmall

F P. Achiuwa12.5 pts · 6 reb · 1 ast Score 7

C I. Hartenstein9.5 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 88

OKCBig

F L. Black7.1 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 13

ThunderBetterKings

OKC offense18th of 30 · -1.1

OKCBig

SAC defense29th of 30 · -7.9

OKC defense2nd of 30 · +6.2

OKCBig

SAC offense27th of 30 · -3.0

Backcourt+24.2 · 4 players

OKCBig

Backcourt-13.7 · 1 player

Frontcourt+12.0 · 1 player

OKCBig

Frontcourt-18.6 · 4 players

Bench-4.1 · 5 players

OKCBig

Bench-13.2 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestOKC betterSAC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Thunder

Guards

S. Gilgeous-Alexander33 minA. Mitchell26 minJ. McCain25 minK. Williams14 minJ. Dix18 minB. Stirtz16 min

Forwards

J. Williams18 minB. Barnhizer9 min

Centers

I. Hartenstein24 minA. Mara18 min

Out

A. CarusoOutC. HolmgrenOutJ. WilliamsOutC. WallaceOut

Kings

Guards

D. Acuff37 minE. Sharp18 minD. Plowden14 minM. Monk12 minN. Clifford8 minA. FlaglerNew

Forwards

D. Sabonis37 minD. Hunter29 minP. Achiuwa29 minL. Black29 minJ. Mogbo17 minA. Karaban10 min

Out

Z. LaVineDay-To-DayK. MurrayOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

OKC106.5 #29

SAC109.3 #22

Points per possession

OKC1.05 #23

SAC1.03 #28

Pace (possessions)

OKC101.1 #27

SAC106.0 #6

Shooting

Effective FG%

OKC49.5 #28

SAC51.0 #23

3-point %

OKC30.9 #26

SAC30.4 #27

3-point attempt rate

OKC35.8 #29

SAC38.0 #27

Free throw rate

OKC21.8 #28

SAC26.4 #20

Possessions

Turnover rate

OKC14.5 #7

SAC15.9 #19

Offensive rebound rate

OKC28.5 #10

SAC22.9 #28

Assists per game

OKC21.7 #29

SAC24.5 #23

Defense

Points allowed

OKC107.0 #5

SAC128.3 #29

Points allowed per possession

OKC1.06 #7

SAC1.21 #29

Opponent effective FG%

OKC51.0 #6

SAC60.4 #30

Opponent 3-point %

OKC35.3 #17

SAC39.2 #27

Turnovers forced

OKC15.8 #13

SAC14.6 #22

Defensive rebound rate

OKC71.4 #18

SAC73.7 #12

Steals per game

OKC8.3 #20

SAC8.0 #21

Blocks per game

OKC6.3 #7

SAC2.3 #30

OKC		SAC
Scoring
106.5 #29	Points per game	109.3 #22
1.05 #23	Points per possession	1.03 #28
101.1 #27	Pace (possessions)	106.0 #6
Shooting
49.5 #28	Effective FG%	51.0 #23
30.9 #26	3-point %	30.4 #27
35.8 #29	3-point attempt rate	38.0 #27
21.8 #28	Free throw rate	26.4 #20
Possessions
14.5 #7	Turnover rate	15.9 #19
28.5 #10	Offensive rebound rate	22.9 #28
21.7 #29	Assists per game	24.5 #23
Defense
107.0 #5	Points allowed	128.3 #29
1.06 #7	Points allowed per possession	1.21 #29
51.0 #6	Opponent effective FG%	60.4 #30
35.3 #17	Opponent 3-point %	39.2 #27
15.8 #13	Turnovers forced	14.6 #22
71.4 #18	Defensive rebound rate	73.7 #12
8.3 #20	Steals per game	8.0 #21
6.3 #7	Blocks per game	2.3 #30

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Thunder

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Rockets98–119
L@ Mavericks96–120
Wvs Suns125–114
Wvs Clippers108–101
Wvs Nuggets96–84

A week or more of rest.

Kings

0-6 overall · 0-6 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Grizzlies105–136
L@ Pelicans120–132
L@ Spurs103–130
Lvs Grizzlies112–123
Lvs Trail Blazers120–128

A week or more of rest.

Thunder @ Kings

What could decide it: OKC has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Thunder

Kings

Thunder has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Thunder

Kings