LA Clippers at Sacramento Kings: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Mar 6, 10:00 PM ETGolden 1 Center · at Kings · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Clippers and Kings
LAC	This season	SAC
1-5	Record	0-6
3-3	ATS	1-5
3-3	O/U	5-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LAC 119–111 · win probability LAC 71%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 230.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LAC has more of the edges

LAC 3, SAC 1 · 2026-27 so far

LACBig

SAC offense vs LAC defense

Offense 27th of 30 against a defense 12th, on the model’s ratings

LACBig

Three-pointers

LAC hits 38.6% and allows 38.2%; SAC hits 30.4% and allows 39.2%. Threes are 42.3% and 38.0% of their shots

LACBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: LAC 28.0, SAC 26.4. Allowed: LAC 24.7, SAC 31.2

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: LAC plays 101.7 a game (23rd fastest), SAC 106.0 (6th). Faster games mean more points

SACSmall

Home court

SAC at home. This season: SAC 0-2 at home, LAC 0-4 away

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: LAC 52.9 and allows 56.9; SAC 51.0 and allows 60.4

Even

Recent form

Last 5: LAC 2-3 ATS, margin -13.8; SAC 1-4 ATS, margin -17.8

Context

Schedule so far

LAC has played the 10th-hardest schedule, SAC the 8th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LAC 20.4%, SAC 15.9%. Forced: LAC 17.0%, SAC 14.6%

Even

LAC offense vs SAC defense

Offense 28th of 30 against a defense 29th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LAC 26.5%, SAC 22.9%. Defensive: LAC 70.9%, SAC 73.7%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LAC 100%, SAC 100%. Transfers in: LAC 0, SAC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAC WWLLL	3-3	50%	2-2	—
SAC WLLLL	1-5	17%	1-1	—

Venue/role: LAC away; SAC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAC OUUOO	3-3	50%	1-5
SAC OOOOO	5-1	83%	0-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAClast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
SAClast 6	0-6 0%	1-5 17%	5-1 83%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Clippers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 8	vs HOU	W105–102WU
Mar 10	vs NY	W126–118WO
Mar 11	vs CLE	L91–124LU

Kings

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 8	vs DEN	L105–136LO
Mar 10	vs GS	W124–118WO
Mar 12	@ UTAH	W116–111WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 21 since 2021-22

LAC 13–8 SACLAC leads · 21 games since 2021-22 · LAC has won the last 2 meetings · LAC 10-11 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 21, 2026-27	SAC 96 @ LAC 121	LAC -5.5	LAC W
Apr 5, 2025-26	LAC 138 @ SAC 109	SAC +13.5	LAC W
Mar 14, 2025-26	SAC 118 @ LAC 109	LAC -13.5	SAC W
Feb 6, 2025-26	LAC 114 @ SAC 111	SAC +3.5	SAC W
Dec 30, 2025-26	SAC 90 @ LAC 131	LAC -9.5	LAC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Clippers

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsSAC	W 121-96	-5.5	W +19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	@LAL	L 117-125	+8.5	W +0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@OKC	L 101-108	+16.5	W +9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 28	vsLAL	L 87-103	-1.5	L −17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@MIN	L 101-127	+6.5	L −19.5	222.5	O 228
Nov 1	@GS	L 112-124	+1.5	L −10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

+19.5

LAL

L 117-125

+0.5

OKC

L 101-108

+9.5

LAL

L 87-103

−17.5

MIN

L 101-127

−19.5

L 112-124

−10.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

−9.5

LAL

L 117-125

+16.5

OKC

L 101-108

−14.5

LAL

L 87-103

−34.5

MIN

L 101-127

+5.5

L 112-124

+15.5

over 3under 3avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Kings

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −10.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAC	L 96-121	+5.5	L −19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	vsPOR	L 120-128	+9.5	W +1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 25	vsMEM	L 112-123	+3.5	L −7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 27	@SA	L 103-130	+19.5	L −7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 29	@NO	L 120-132	+6.5	L −5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	@MEM	L 105-136	+7.5	L −23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−19.5

POR

L 120-128

+1.5

MEM

L 112-123

−7.5

L 103-130

−7.5

L 120-132

−5.5

MEM

L 105-136

−23.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −10.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−9.5

POR

L 120-128

+16.5

MEM

L 112-123

+0.5

L 103-130

+0.5

L 120-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-136

+11.5

over 5under 1avg +6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Clippers has the better starters

Position by position: Clippers 2, Kings 0, even 3

ClippersBetterKings

G D. Garland20.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 6.3 ast Score 27

LACSmall

G D. Acuff26.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 6.3 ast Score 4

G K. Dunn8.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 25

Even

F D. Sabonis16 pts · 15.8 reb · 7.3 ast Score 26

G K. Sanders8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast Score 31

Even

F D. Hunter14 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 38

F R. Hachimura13.4 pts · 6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 83

LACBig

F P. Achiuwa12.5 pts · 6 reb · 1 ast Score 7

F I. Jackson8 pts · 6.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 8

Even

F L. Black7.1 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 13

ClippersBetterKings

LAC offense28th of 30 · -3.5

Even

SAC defense29th of 30 · -7.9

LAC defense12th of 30 · +1.7

LACBig

SAC offense27th of 30 · -3.0

Backcourt-5.9 · 3 players

LACBig

Backcourt-13.7 · 1 player

Frontcourt+3.6 · 2 players

LACBig

Frontcourt-18.6 · 4 players

Bench+3.5 · 5 players

LACBig

Bench-13.2 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestLAC betterSAC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Clippers

Guards

D. Garland33 minK. Dunn30 minK. Sanders23 minK. Wagler25 minJ. Pickett16 minG. Dick14 min

Forwards

R. Hachimura30 minI. Jackson22 minB. Miller8 minN. Martinelli5 min

Centers

B. Lopez22 min

Out

D. JonesDay-To-Day

Kings

Guards

D. Acuff37 minE. Sharp18 minD. Plowden14 minM. Monk12 minN. Clifford8 minA. FlaglerNew

Forwards

D. Sabonis37 minD. Hunter29 minP. Achiuwa29 minL. Black29 minJ. Mogbo17 minA. Karaban10 min

Out

Z. LaVineDay-To-DayK. MurrayOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LAC106.5 #28

SAC109.3 #22

Points per possession

LAC1.04 #27

SAC1.03 #28

Pace (possessions)

LAC101.7 #23

SAC106.0 #6

Shooting

Effective FG%

LAC52.9 #18

SAC51.0 #23

3-point %

LAC38.6 #5

SAC30.4 #27

3-point attempt rate

LAC42.3 #17

SAC38.0 #27

Free throw rate

LAC28.0 #17

SAC26.4 #20

Possessions

Turnover rate

LAC20.4 #30

SAC15.9 #19

Offensive rebound rate

LAC26.5 #21

SAC22.9 #28

Assists per game

LAC24.3 #26

SAC24.5 #23

Defense

Points allowed

LAC113.8 #15

SAC128.3 #29

Points allowed per possession

LAC1.13 #22

SAC1.21 #29

Opponent effective FG%

LAC56.9 #28

SAC60.4 #30

Opponent 3-point %

LAC38.2 #26

SAC39.2 #27

Turnovers forced

LAC17.0 #8

SAC14.6 #22

Defensive rebound rate

LAC70.9 #20

SAC73.7 #12

Steals per game

LAC11.3 #3

SAC8.0 #21

Blocks per game

LAC4.2 #22

SAC2.3 #30

LAC		SAC
Scoring
106.5 #28	Points per game	109.3 #22
1.04 #27	Points per possession	1.03 #28
101.7 #23	Pace (possessions)	106.0 #6
Shooting
52.9 #18	Effective FG%	51.0 #23
38.6 #5	3-point %	30.4 #27
42.3 #17	3-point attempt rate	38.0 #27
28.0 #17	Free throw rate	26.4 #20
Possessions
20.4 #30	Turnover rate	15.9 #19
26.5 #21	Offensive rebound rate	22.9 #28
24.3 #26	Assists per game	24.5 #23
Defense
113.8 #15	Points allowed	128.3 #29
1.13 #22	Points allowed per possession	1.21 #29
56.9 #28	Opponent effective FG%	60.4 #30
38.2 #26	Opponent 3-point %	39.2 #27
17.0 #8	Turnovers forced	14.6 #22
70.9 #20	Defensive rebound rate	73.7 #12
11.3 #3	Steals per game	8.0 #21
4.2 #22	Blocks per game	2.3 #30

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Clippers

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Warriors112–124
L@ Timberwolves101–127
Lvs Lakers87–103
L@ Thunder101–108
L@ Lakers117–125

A week or more of rest.

Kings

0-6 overall · 0-6 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Grizzlies105–136
L@ Pelicans120–132
L@ Spurs103–130
Lvs Grizzlies112–123
Lvs Trail Blazers120–128

A week or more of rest.

Clippers @ Kings

What could decide it: LAC has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Clippers

Kings

Clippers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Clippers

Kings