Houston Rockets at LA Clippers: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Mar 8, 10:30 PM ETIntuit Dome · at Clippers · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Rockets and Clippers
HOU	This season	LAC
6-1	Record	1-5
6-1	ATS	3-3
5-2	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HOU 115–108 · win probability HOU 68%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 222.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

HOU 8, LAC 1 · 2026-27 so far

HOUBig

LAC offense vs HOU defense

Offense 28th of 30 against a defense 4th, on the model’s ratings

HOUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: HOU 56.6 and allows 52.1; LAC 52.9 and allows 56.9

HOUBig

Three-pointers

HOU hits 39.0% and allows 30.2%; LAC hits 38.6% and allows 38.2%. Threes are 38.1% and 42.3% of their shots

HOUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: HOU 32.4%, LAC 26.5%. Defensive: HOU 73.2%, LAC 70.9%

HOUSmall

HOU offense vs LAC defense

Offense 6th of 30 against a defense 12th, on the model’s ratings

HOUSmall

Recent form

Last 5: HOU 4-1 ATS, margin +13.0; LAC 2-3 ATS, margin -13.8

HOUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: HOU 15.1%, LAC 20.4%. Forced: HOU 15.7%, LAC 17.0%

LACSmall

Home court

LAC at home. This season: LAC 1-1 at home, HOU 3-1 away

HOUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: HOU 31.9, LAC 28.0. Allowed: HOU 24.7, LAC 24.7

Context

Schedule so far

HOU has played the 12th-hardest schedule, LAC the 10th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: HOU plays 101.6 a game (24th fastest), LAC 101.7 (23rd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: HOU 100%, LAC 100%. Transfers in: HOU 0, LAC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU WWWLW	6-1	86%	3-1	—
LAC WWLLL	3-3	50%	1-1	—

Venue/role: HOU away; LAC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU OOOOU	5-2	71%	6-1
LAC OUUOO	3-3	50%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOUlast 7	6-1 86%	6-1 86%	5-2 71%
LAClast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Rockets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 10	@ UTAH	W140–106WO
Mar 13	vs IND	W118–114LO
Mar 16	vs SA	W114–110WU

Clippers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 10	vs NY	W126–118WO
Mar 11	vs CLE	L91–124LU
Mar 13	@ POR	L97–116LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

HOU 6–12 LACLAC leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · HOU 8-10 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 11, 2025-26	LAC 105 @ HOU 102	HOU -8.5	LAC W
Feb 10, 2025-26	LAC 95 @ HOU 102	HOU -9.5	LAC W
Dec 23, 2025-26	HOU 108 @ LAC 128	LAC +7.5	LAC W
Dec 11, 2025-26	LAC 113 @ HOU 115	HOU -8.5	LAC W
Apr 9, 2024-25	HOU 117 @ LAC 134	LAC -10.5	LAC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Rockets

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +8.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-2

71% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-271%

O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsDAL	W 128-110	-9.5	W +8.5	230.5	O 238
Oct 23	@SA	W 114-110	+4.5	W +8.5	224.5	U 224
Oct 24	@ATL	W 121-114	-1.5	W +5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	vsATL	W 120-110	-4.5	W +5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	@MIL	W 132-100	-8.5	W +23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 30	@DAL	L 111-116	-5.5	L −10.5	223.5	O 227
Oct 31	vsOKC	W 119-98	-2.5	W +18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+8.5

W 114-110

+8.5

ATL

W 121-114

+5.5

ATL

W 120-110

+5.5

MIL

W 132-100

+23.5

DAL

L 111-116

−10.5

OKC

W 119-98

+18.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+7.5

W 114-110

−0.5

ATL

W 121-114

+7.5

ATL

W 120-110

+1.5

MIL

W 132-100

+5.5

DAL

L 111-116

+3.5

OKC

W 119-98

−2.5

over 5under 2avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Clippers

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsSAC	W 121-96	-5.5	W +19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	@LAL	L 117-125	+8.5	W +0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@OKC	L 101-108	+16.5	W +9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 28	vsLAL	L 87-103	-1.5	L −17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@MIN	L 101-127	+6.5	L −19.5	222.5	O 228
Nov 1	@GS	L 112-124	+1.5	L −10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

+19.5

LAL

L 117-125

+0.5

OKC

L 101-108

+9.5

LAL

L 87-103

−17.5

MIN

L 101-127

−19.5

L 112-124

−10.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

−9.5

LAL

L 117-125

+16.5

OKC

L 101-108

−14.5

LAL

L 87-103

−34.5

MIN

L 101-127

+5.5

L 112-124

+15.5

over 3under 3avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Rockets has the better starters

Position by position: Rockets 4, Clippers 0, even 1

RocketsBetterClippers

G A. Thompson16.3 pts · 6.6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 60

HOUSmall

G D. Garland20.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 6.3 ast Score 27

G F. VanVleet13 pts · 4 reb · 6.4 ast Score 94

HOUBig

G K. Dunn8.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 25

F J. Smith19 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.7 ast Score 79

HOUBig

G K. Sanders8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast Score 31

F K. Durant22 pts · 5.6 reb · 3.3 ast Score 82

Even

F R. Hachimura13.4 pts · 6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 83

C A. Sengun22.8 pts · 9 reb · 7.4 ast Score 84

HOUBig

F I. Jackson8 pts · 6.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 8

RocketsBetterClippers

HOU offense6th of 30 · +2.9

HOUSmall

LAC defense12th of 30 · +1.7

HOU defense4th of 30 · +5.2

HOUBig

LAC offense28th of 30 · -3.5

Backcourt+19.1 · 2 players

HOUBig

Backcourt-5.9 · 3 players

Frontcourt+30.0 · 3 players

HOUBig

Frontcourt+3.6 · 2 players

Bench+16.2 · 5 players

HOUBig

Bench+3.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestHOU betterLAC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Rockets

Guards

A. Thompson34 minF. VanVleet31 minM. Smart25 minB. Bogdanovic15 minS. Pedulla4 minB. Thornton3 min

Forwards

J. Smith34 minK. Durant34 minT. Eason24 minJ. Tate9 minI. Crawford7 min

Centers

A. Sengun34 minO. Tshiebwe17 min

Out

S. AdamsOutC. CapelaDay-To-DayR. SheppardDay-To-Day

Clippers

Guards

D. Garland33 minK. Dunn30 minK. Sanders23 minK. Wagler25 minJ. Pickett16 minG. Dick14 min

Forwards

R. Hachimura30 minI. Jackson22 minB. Miller8 minN. Martinelli5 min

Centers

B. Lopez22 min

Out

D. JonesDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

HOU120.7 #3

LAC106.5 #28

Points per possession

HOU1.20 #1

LAC1.04 #27

Pace (possessions)

HOU101.6 #24

LAC101.7 #23

Shooting

Effective FG%

HOU56.6 #3

LAC52.9 #18

3-point %

HOU39.0 #3

LAC38.6 #5

3-point attempt rate

HOU38.1 #26

LAC42.3 #17

Free throw rate

HOU31.9 #8

LAC28.0 #17

Possessions

Turnover rate

HOU15.1 #13

LAC20.4 #30

Offensive rebound rate

HOU32.4 #3

LAC26.5 #21

Assists per game

HOU28.1 #5

LAC24.3 #26

Defense

Points allowed

HOU108.3 #7

LAC113.8 #15

Points allowed per possession

HOU1.06 #8

LAC1.13 #22

Opponent effective FG%

HOU52.1 #10

LAC56.9 #28

Opponent 3-point %

HOU30.2 #4

LAC38.2 #26

Turnovers forced

HOU15.7 #16

LAC17.0 #8

Defensive rebound rate

HOU73.2 #14

LAC70.9 #20

Steals per game

HOU9.7 #6

LAC11.3 #3

Blocks per game

HOU5.9 #8

LAC4.2 #22

HOU		LAC
Scoring
120.7 #3	Points per game	106.5 #28
1.20 #1	Points per possession	1.04 #27
101.6 #24	Pace (possessions)	101.7 #23
Shooting
56.6 #3	Effective FG%	52.9 #18
39.0 #3	3-point %	38.6 #5
38.1 #26	3-point attempt rate	42.3 #17
31.9 #8	Free throw rate	28.0 #17
Possessions
15.1 #13	Turnover rate	20.4 #30
32.4 #3	Offensive rebound rate	26.5 #21
28.1 #5	Assists per game	24.3 #26
Defense
108.3 #7	Points allowed	113.8 #15
1.06 #8	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #22
52.1 #10	Opponent effective FG%	56.9 #28
30.2 #4	Opponent 3-point %	38.2 #26
15.7 #16	Turnovers forced	17.0 #8
73.2 #14	Defensive rebound rate	70.9 #20
9.7 #6	Steals per game	11.3 #3
5.9 #8	Blocks per game	4.2 #22

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Rockets

6-1 overall · 3-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Thunder119–98
L@ Mavericks111–116
W@ Bucks132–100
Wvs Hawks120–110
W@ Hawks121–114

A week or more of rest.

Clippers

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Warriors112–124
L@ Timberwolves101–127
Lvs Lakers87–103
L@ Thunder101–108
L@ Lakers117–125

A week or more of rest.

Rockets @ Clippers

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Rockets

Clippers

Rockets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Rockets

Clippers