Indiana Pacers at Houston Rockets: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Mar 13, 5:30 PM ETToyota Center (Houston) · at Rockets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Pacers and Rockets
IND	This season	HOU
2-5	Record	6-1
3-4	ATS	6-1
3-4	O/U	5-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HOU 122–106 · win probability HOU 87%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

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model 227.3

Model edge

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No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

IND 0, HOU 8 · 2026-27 so far

HOUBig

IND offense vs HOU defense

Offense 24th of 30 against a defense 4th, on the model’s ratings

HOUBig

HOU offense vs IND defense

Offense 6th of 30 against a defense 25th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

IND has played the 29th-hardest schedule, HOU the 12th. A record against a soft schedule means less

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Three-pointers

IND hits 34.1% and allows 35.9%; HOU hits 39.0% and allows 30.2%. Threes are 43.1% and 38.1% of their shots

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Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: IND 23.1%, HOU 32.4%. Defensive: IND 72.7%, HOU 73.2%

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Free throws

Free throw rate: IND 31.2, HOU 31.9. Allowed: IND 32.1, HOU 24.7

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Shooting

Effective FG%: IND 53.9 and allows 53.9; HOU 56.6 and allows 52.1

HOUSmall

Recent form

Last 5: IND 2-3 ATS, margin -2.8; HOU 4-1 ATS, margin +13.0

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: IND plays 103.1 a game (15th fastest), HOU 101.6 (24th). Faster games mean more points

HOUSmall

Home court

HOU at home. This season: HOU 3-0 at home, IND 2-2 away

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: IND 14.8%, HOU 15.1%. Forced: IND 14.9%, HOU 15.7%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: IND 100%, HOU 100%. Transfers in: IND 0, HOU 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IND WLWLL	3-4	43%	2-2	—
HOU WWWLW	6-1	86%	3-0	—

Venue/role: IND away; HOU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
IND OUUOU	3-4	43%	2-5
HOU OOOOU	5-2	71%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
INDlast 7	2-5 29%	3-4 43%	3-4 43%
HOUlast 7	6-1 86%	6-1 86%	5-2 71%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Pacers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 15	@ BKN	L90–98LU
Mar 16	vs DET	L121–133WO
Mar 18	vs TOR	L104–122LU

Rockets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 16	vs SA	W114–110WU
Mar 17	vs BKN	W120–96WU
Mar 19	@ NO	W134–102WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

IND 7–3 HOUIND leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · HOU has won the last 2 meetings · IND 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 2, 2025-26	HOU 118 @ IND 114	IND +6.5	IND W
Dec 29, 2025-26	IND 119 @ HOU 126	HOU -12.5	IND W
Mar 4, 2024-25	HOU 102 @ IND 115	IND -4.5	IND W
Nov 20, 2024-25	IND 113 @ HOU 130	HOU -5.5	HOU W
Feb 6, 2023-24	HOU 129 @ IND 132	IND -8.5	HOU W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Pacers

7 games played

Straight up

2-5

29% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −4.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −6.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-529%

W L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

O U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@NO	W 123-120	-2.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	vsDAL	L 105-121	-7.5	L −23.5	241.5	U 226
Oct 25	@BKN	W 136-109	-5.5	W +21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 26	@MIL	L 102-110	-3.5	L −11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsPHI	L 109-114	+7.5	W +2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	@MIA	L 125-145	+8.5	L −11.5	236.5	O 270
Nov 1	vsBKN	L 90-98	-3.5	L −11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 123-120

+0.5

DAL

L 105-121

−23.5

BKN

W 136-109

+21.5

MIL

L 102-110

−11.5

PHI

L 109-114

+2.5

MIA

L 125-145

−11.5

BKN

L 90-98

−11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 123-120

+4.5

DAL

L 105-121

−15.5

BKN

W 136-109

+13.5

MIL

L 102-110

−27.5

PHI

L 109-114

−11.5

MIA

L 125-145

+33.5

BKN

L 90-98

−42.5

over 3under 4avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Rockets

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +8.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-2

71% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-271%

O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsDAL	W 128-110	-9.5	W +8.5	230.5	O 238
Oct 23	@SA	W 114-110	+4.5	W +8.5	224.5	U 224
Oct 24	@ATL	W 121-114	-1.5	W +5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	vsATL	W 120-110	-4.5	W +5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	@MIL	W 132-100	-8.5	W +23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 30	@DAL	L 111-116	-5.5	L −10.5	223.5	O 227
Oct 31	vsOKC	W 119-98	-2.5	W +18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+8.5

W 114-110

+8.5

ATL

W 121-114

+5.5

ATL

W 120-110

+5.5

MIL

W 132-100

+23.5

DAL

L 111-116

−10.5

OKC

W 119-98

+18.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+7.5

W 114-110

−0.5

ATL

W 121-114

+7.5

ATL

W 120-110

+1.5

MIL

W 132-100

+5.5

DAL

L 111-116

+3.5

OKC

W 119-98

−2.5

over 5under 2avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Rockets has the better starters

Position by position: Pacers 0, Rockets 2, even 3

PacersBetterRockets

G A. Nembhard18.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 70

Even

G A. Thompson16.3 pts · 6.6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 60

G K. Oubre9.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 32

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G F. VanVleet13 pts · 4 reb · 6.4 ast Score 94

G A. Nesmith12.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65

Even

F J. Smith19 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.7 ast Score 79

F P. Siakam21.4 pts · 7.4 reb · 4 ast Score 74

Even

F K. Durant22 pts · 5.6 reb · 3.3 ast Score 82

C J. Huff6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 10

HOUBig

C A. Sengun22.8 pts · 9 reb · 7.4 ast Score 84

PacersBetterRockets

IND offense24th of 30 · -2.3

HOUBig

HOU defense4th of 30 · +5.2

IND defense25th of 30 · -3.8

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HOU offense6th of 30 · +2.9

Backcourt+10.3 · 3 players

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Backcourt+19.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt+4.0 · 2 players

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Frontcourt+30.0 · 3 players

Bench-26.3 · 5 players

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Bench+16.2 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestIND betterHOU betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Pacers

Guards

A. Nembhard33 minK. Oubre23 minA. Nesmith23 minQ. Jackson20 minK. Brown12 minB. Smith6 min

Forwards

P. Siakam32 minJ. Walker22 minL. Nance16 minJ. Slawson13 min

Centers

J. Huff17 min

Out

I. ZubacOutO. ToppinDay-To-DayT. HaliburtonOutB. SheppardOut

Rockets

Guards

A. Thompson34 minF. VanVleet31 minM. Smart25 minB. Bogdanovic15 minS. Pedulla4 minB. Thornton3 min

Forwards

J. Smith34 minK. Durant34 minT. Eason24 minJ. Tate9 minI. Crawford7 min

Centers

A. Sengun34 minO. Tshiebwe17 min

Out

S. AdamsOutC. CapelaDay-To-DayR. SheppardDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

IND112.9 #18

HOU120.7 #3

Points per possession

IND1.10 #17

HOU1.20 #1

Pace (possessions)

IND103.1 #15

HOU101.6 #24

Shooting

Effective FG%

IND53.9 #14

HOU56.6 #3

3-point %

IND34.1 #18

HOU39.0 #3

3-point attempt rate

IND43.1 #15

HOU38.1 #26

Free throw rate

IND31.2 #12

HOU31.9 #8

Possessions

Turnover rate

IND14.8 #10

HOU15.1 #13

Offensive rebound rate

IND23.1 #27

HOU32.4 #3

Assists per game

IND28.0 #7

HOU28.1 #5

Defense

Points allowed

IND116.7 #23

HOU108.3 #7

Points allowed per possession

IND1.13 #23

HOU1.06 #8

Opponent effective FG%

IND53.9 #19

HOU52.1 #10

Opponent 3-point %

IND35.9 #20

HOU30.2 #4

Turnovers forced

IND14.9 #19

HOU15.7 #16

Defensive rebound rate

IND72.7 #16

HOU73.2 #14

Steals per game

IND6.9 #27

HOU9.7 #6

Blocks per game

IND4.0 #26

HOU5.9 #8

IND		HOU
Scoring
112.9 #18	Points per game	120.7 #3
1.10 #17	Points per possession	1.20 #1
103.1 #15	Pace (possessions)	101.6 #24
Shooting
53.9 #14	Effective FG%	56.6 #3
34.1 #18	3-point %	39.0 #3
43.1 #15	3-point attempt rate	38.1 #26
31.2 #12	Free throw rate	31.9 #8
Possessions
14.8 #10	Turnover rate	15.1 #13
23.1 #27	Offensive rebound rate	32.4 #3
28.0 #7	Assists per game	28.1 #5
Defense
116.7 #23	Points allowed	108.3 #7
1.13 #23	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #8
53.9 #19	Opponent effective FG%	52.1 #10
35.9 #20	Opponent 3-point %	30.2 #4
14.9 #19	Turnovers forced	15.7 #16
72.7 #16	Defensive rebound rate	73.2 #14
6.9 #27	Steals per game	9.7 #6
4.0 #26	Blocks per game	5.9 #8

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pacers

2-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nets90–98
L@ Heat125–145
Lvs 76ers109–114
L@ Bucks102–110
W@ Nets136–109

A week or more of rest.

Rockets

6-1 overall · 3-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Thunder119–98
L@ Mavericks111–116
W@ Bucks132–100
Wvs Hawks120–110
W@ Hawks121–114

A week or more of rest.

Pacers @ Rockets

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Pacers

Rockets

Rockets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Pacers

Rockets