1. Home
  2. NBA
  3. Tue, Mar 16
  4. DET @ IND
NBA · Tue, Mar 16

Pistons @ Pacers

Gainbridge Fieldhouse · at Pacers · Conference game
#4DETPistons
@
#25INDPacers
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
DETThis seasonIND
5-1Record2-5
5-1ATS3-4
2-4O/U3-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DET 117–107 · win probability DET 75%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 223.9
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DET has more of the edges

DET 7, IND 1 · 2026-27 so far
DETBig
IND offense vs DET defense
Offense 24th of 30 against a defense 1st, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
DET has played the 17th-hardest schedule, IND the 29th. A record against a soft schedule means less
DETBig
Three-pointers
DET hits 36.3% and allows 32.5%; IND hits 34.1% and allows 35.9%. Threes are 43.3% and 43.1% of their shots
DETSmall
DET offense vs IND defense
Offense 17th of 30 against a defense 25th, on the model’s ratings
DETSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: DET 53.1 and allows 48.8; IND 53.9 and allows 53.9
Context
Tempo
About 102 possessions: DET plays 100.9 a game (29th fastest), IND 103.1 (15th). Faster games mean more points
DETSmall
Recent form
Last 5: DET 4-1 ATS, margin +8.0; IND 2-3 ATS, margin -2.8
DETSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: DET 27.2%, IND 23.1%. Defensive: DET 72.8%, IND 72.7%
DETSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: DET 28.9, IND 31.2. Allowed: DET 28.1, IND 32.1
INDSmall
Home court
IND at home. This season: IND 0-3 at home, DET 3-1 away
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: DET 15.6%, IND 14.8%. Forced: DET 17.1%, IND 14.9%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: DET 100%, IND 100%. Transfers in: DET 0, IND 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelDET -9.5
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model223.9
Model edge—
Projected score
DET 116.7 · IND 107.2
Win probability
DET 75%
1st half
Spread
DET -5.5
Total
112.3
Projected score
DET 58.9 · IND 53.4
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Pistons has the better starters

Position by position: Pistons 3, Pacers 1, even 1
PistonsBetterPacers
G C. Cunningham22.2 pts · 5.5 reb · 7.2 ast Score 47
INDSmall
G A. Nembhard18.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 70
G A. Thompson8.8 pts · 7.4 reb · 5 ast Score 79
DETBig
G K. Oubre9.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 32
F D. Robinson16.8 pts · 2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 77
Even
G A. Nesmith12.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65
F P. Reed13.8 pts · 7 reb · 2 ast Score 97
DETSmall
F P. Siakam21.4 pts · 7.4 reb · 4 ast Score 74
F J. Collins9.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 30
DETSmall
C J. Huff6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 10
PistonsBetterPacers
DET offense17th of 30 · -0.6
DETSmall
IND defense25th of 30 · -3.8
DET defense1st of 30 · +7.1
DETBig
IND offense24th of 30 · -2.3
Backcourt+10.1 · 2 players
Even
Backcourt+10.3 · 3 players
Frontcourt+19.7 · 3 players
DETBig
Frontcourt+4.0 · 2 players
Bench+22.1 · 5 players
DETBig
Bench-26.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestDET betterIND betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Pistons
Guards
C. Cunningham34 minA. Thompson26 minD. Jenkins25 minE. Harkless21 minK. Huerter21 minJ. Green19 min
Forwards
D. Robinson30 minP. Reed27 minJ. Collins27 minT. Prince24 minR. Holland16 minT. Smith8 min
Centers
I. Jones5 min
Out
I. JoeOutJ. DurenOut
Pacers
Guards
A. Nembhard33 minK. Oubre23 minA. Nesmith23 minQ. Jackson20 minK. Brown12 minB. Smith6 min
Forwards
P. Siakam32 minJ. Walker22 minL. Nance16 minJ. Slawson13 min
Centers
J. Huff17 min
Out
I. ZubacOutO. ToppinDay-To-DayT. HaliburtonOutB. SheppardOut
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
DETIND
Scoring
109.8 #21Points per game112.9 #18
1.09 #18Points per possession1.10 #17
100.9 #29Pace (possessions)103.1 #15
Shooting
53.1 #17Effective FG%53.9 #14
36.3 #93-point %34.1 #18
43.3 #133-point attempt rate43.1 #15
28.9 #14Free throw rate31.2 #12
Possessions
15.6 #17Turnover rate14.8 #10
27.2 #17Offensive rebound rate23.1 #27
26.7 #15Assists per game28.0 #7
Defense
101.8 #1Points allowed116.7 #23
1.01 #1Points allowed per possession1.13 #23
48.8 #2Opponent effective FG%53.9 #19
32.5 #10Opponent 3-point %35.9 #20
17.1 #6Turnovers forced14.9 #19
72.8 #15Defensive rebound rate72.7 #16
9.0 #12Steals per game6.9 #27
6.7 #4Blocks per game4.0 #26
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pistons

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • W@ Nets110–94
  • Wvs Hornets97–89
  • L@ Knicks97–111
  • W@ 76ers106–93
  • W@ Heat128–111

A week or more of rest.

Pacers

2-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Lvs Nets90–98
  • L@ Heat125–145
  • Lvs 76ers109–114
  • L@ Bucks102–110
  • W@ Nets136–109

A week or more of rest.