Charlotte Hornets at Detroit Pistons: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Mar 20, 8:00 PM ETLittle Caesars Arena · at Pistons · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Hornets and Pistons
CHA	This season	DET
3-4	Record	5-1
3-4	ATS	5-1
1-6	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DET 111–101 · win probability DET 77%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 211.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DET has more of the edges

CHA 2, DET 7 · 2026-27 so far

DETBig

CHA offense vs DET defense

Offense 30th of 30 against a defense 1st, on the model’s ratings

DETBig

Three-pointers

CHA hits 29.6% and allows 37.5%; DET hits 36.3% and allows 32.5%. Threes are 50.8% and 43.3% of their shots

DETBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CHA 18.8%, DET 15.6%. Forced: CHA 14.5%, DET 17.1%

DETBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: CHA 48.4 and allows 53.1; DET 53.1 and allows 48.8

CHABig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CHA 31.6%, DET 27.2%. Defensive: CHA 76.6%, DET 72.8%

CHABig

DET offense vs CHA defense

Offense 17th of 30 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings

DETSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: CHA 18.9, DET 28.9. Allowed: CHA 28.4, DET 28.1

DETSmall

Recent form

Last 5: CHA 2-3 ATS, margin -3.4; DET 4-1 ATS, margin +8.0

Context

Schedule so far

CHA has played the 22nd-hardest schedule, DET the 17th. A record against a soft schedule means less

DETSmall

Home court

DET at home. This season: DET 2-0 at home, CHA 1-2 away

Context

Tempo

About 100 possessions: CHA plays 98.3 a game (30th fastest), DET 100.9 (29th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CHA 100%, DET 100%. Transfers in: CHA 0, DET 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHA WWLLL	3-4	43%	1-2	—
DET WWLWW	5-1	83%	2-0	—

Venue/role: CHA away; DET home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHA UUUUO	1-6	14%	3-4
DET OUUUU	2-4	33%	5-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHAlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	1-6 14%
DETlast 6	5-1 83%	5-1 83%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Hornets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 22	@ MEM	W124–101WU
Mar 24	vs DET	L89–97LU
Mar 26	vs NY	W110–96LU

Pistons

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 22	@ MIN	W113–108LO
Mar 24	@ CHA	W97–89WU
Mar 25	vs HOU	L104–111LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

CHA 6–12 DETDET leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · DET has won the last 6 meetings · CHA 8-10 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 28, 2026-27	CHA 89 @ DET 97	DET -7.5	DET W
Apr 10, 2025-26	DET 118 @ CHA 100	CHA -6.5	DET W
Feb 9, 2025-26	DET 110 @ CHA 104	CHA +2.5	DET W
Dec 20, 2025-26	CHA 86 @ DET 112	DET -10.5	DET W
Feb 9, 2024-25	CHA 102 @ DET 112	DET -11.5	CHA W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Hornets

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −6.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-6

14% overs · avg −15.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-614%

U U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@BKN	W 110-103	-1.5	W +5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 23	vsATL	L 81-128	+2.5	L −44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsMIA	W 115-110	+4.5	W +9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsWSH	W 110-103	-2.5	W +4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@DET	L 89-97	+7.5	L −0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@WSH	L 79-95	+1.5	L −14.5	218.5	U 174
Oct 31	vsPHI	L 104-109	+1.5	L −3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

+5.5

ATL

L 81-128

−44.5

MIA

W 115-110

+9.5

WSH

W 110-103

+4.5

DET

L 89-97

−0.5

WSH

L 79-95

−14.5

PHI

L 104-109

−3.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

−7.5

ATL

L 81-128

−17.5

MIA

W 115-110

−2.5

WSH

W 110-103

−12.5

DET

L 89-97

−26.5

WSH

L 79-95

−44.5

PHI

L 104-109

+1.5

over 1under 6avg −15.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Pistons

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

5-1

83% covers · avg +5.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −11.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

W W W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-183%

W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

O O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsBOS	W 121-113	+1.5	W +9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	@MIA	W 128-111	-2.5	W +14.5	235.5	O 239
Oct 25	@PHI	W 106-93	-1.5	W +11.5	228.5	U 199
Oct 27	@NY	L 97-111	+4.5	L −9.5	220.5	U 208
Oct 28	vsCHA	W 97-89	-7.5	W +0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@BKN	W 110-94	-8.5	W +7.5	222.5	U 204

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BOS

W 121-113

+9.5

MIA

W 128-111

+14.5

PHI

W 106-93

+11.5

L 97-111

−9.5

CHA

W 97-89

+0.5

BKN

W 110-94

+7.5

covered 5didn’t cover 1avg +5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BOS

W 121-113

+13.5

MIA

W 128-111

+3.5

PHI

W 106-93

−29.5

L 97-111

−12.5

CHA

W 97-89

−26.5

BKN

W 110-94

−18.5

over 2under 4avg −11.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Pistons has the better starters

Position by position: Hornets 0, Pistons 4, even 1

HornetsBetterPistons

G D. Schroder11.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.4 ast Score 21

DETSmall

G C. Cunningham22.2 pts · 5.5 reb · 7.2 ast Score 47

G S. James3.7 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 63

DETSmall

G A. Thompson8.8 pts · 7.4 reb · 5 ast Score 79

F B. Miller24.4 pts · 6 reb · 2.3 ast Score 70

Even

F D. Robinson16.8 pts · 2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 77

F M. Diabate9.4 pts · 9.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 66

DETSmall

F P. Reed13.8 pts · 7 reb · 2 ast Score 97

C N. Reid15.9 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 14

DETSmall

F J. Collins9.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 30

HornetsBetterPistons

CHA offense30th of 30 · -7.4

DETBig

DET defense1st of 30 · +7.1

CHA defense6th of 30 · +4.4

CHABig

DET offense17th of 30 · -0.6

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

DETBig

Backcourt+10.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt+7.7 · 3 players

DETBig

Frontcourt+19.7 · 3 players

Bench-5.0 · 5 players

DETBig

Bench+22.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCHA betterDET betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Hornets

Guards

D. Schroder32 minS. James25 minG. Allen27 minL. McNeeley12 minC. Anderson11 minM. AjayiNew

Forwards

B. Miller34 minM. Diabate29 minR. O'Neale18 minT. Salaun14 minH. Steinbach7 min

Centers

N. Reid29 minR. Kalkbrenner17 minP. Hall13 min

Pistons

Guards

C. Cunningham34 minA. Thompson26 minD. Jenkins25 minE. Harkless21 minK. Huerter21 minJ. Green19 min

Forwards

D. Robinson30 minP. Reed27 minJ. Collins27 minT. Prince24 minR. Holland16 minT. Smith8 min

Centers

I. Jones5 min

Out

I. JoeOutJ. DurenOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CHA98.3 #30

DET109.8 #21

Points per possession

CHA0.99 #30

DET1.09 #18

Pace (possessions)

CHA98.3 #30

DET100.9 #29

Shooting

Effective FG%

CHA48.4 #29

DET53.1 #17

3-point %

CHA29.6 #28

DET36.3 #9

3-point attempt rate

CHA50.8 #2

DET43.3 #13

Free throw rate

CHA18.9 #30

DET28.9 #14

Possessions

Turnover rate

CHA18.8 #29

DET15.6 #17

Offensive rebound rate

CHA31.6 #4

DET27.2 #17

Assists per game

CHA21.6 #30

DET26.7 #15

Defense

Points allowed

CHA106.4 #4

DET101.8 #1

Points allowed per possession

CHA1.09 #15

DET1.01 #1

Opponent effective FG%

CHA53.1 #15

DET48.8 #2

Opponent 3-point %

CHA37.5 #24

DET32.5 #10

Turnovers forced

CHA14.5 #23

DET17.1 #6

Defensive rebound rate

CHA76.6 #5

DET72.8 #15

Steals per game

CHA7.1 #25

DET9.0 #12

Blocks per game

CHA5.0 #15

DET6.7 #4

CHA		DET
Scoring
98.3 #30	Points per game	109.8 #21
0.99 #30	Points per possession	1.09 #18
98.3 #30	Pace (possessions)	100.9 #29
Shooting
48.4 #29	Effective FG%	53.1 #17
29.6 #28	3-point %	36.3 #9
50.8 #2	3-point attempt rate	43.3 #13
18.9 #30	Free throw rate	28.9 #14
Possessions
18.8 #29	Turnover rate	15.6 #17
31.6 #4	Offensive rebound rate	27.2 #17
21.6 #30	Assists per game	26.7 #15
Defense
106.4 #4	Points allowed	101.8 #1
1.09 #15	Points allowed per possession	1.01 #1
53.1 #15	Opponent effective FG%	48.8 #2
37.5 #24	Opponent 3-point %	32.5 #10
14.5 #23	Turnovers forced	17.1 #6
76.6 #5	Defensive rebound rate	72.8 #15
7.1 #25	Steals per game	9.0 #12
5.0 #15	Blocks per game	6.7 #4

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hornets

3-4 overall · 3-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs 76ers104–109
L@ Wizards79–95
L@ Pistons89–97
Wvs Wizards110–103
Wvs Heat115–110

A week or more of rest.

Pistons

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Nets110–94
Wvs Hornets97–89
L@ Knicks97–111
W@ 76ers106–93
W@ Heat128–111

A week or more of rest.

Hornets @ Pistons

What could decide it: DET has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Hornets

Pistons

Pistons has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Hornets

Pistons