Charlotte Hornets at Memphis Grizzlies: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Mar 22, 8:00 PM ETFedExForum · at Grizzlies

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Hornets and Grizzlies
CHA	This season	MEM
3-4	Record	6-0
3-4	ATS	6-0
1-6	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MEM 112–108 · win probability MEM 60%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

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model 220.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges

CHA 1, MEM 6 · 2026-27 so far

MEMBig

Three-pointers

CHA hits 29.6% and allows 37.5%; MEM hits 41.7% and allows 30.0%. Threes are 50.8% and 42.1% of their shots

MEMBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: CHA 48.4 and allows 53.1; MEM 55.9 and allows 49.2

MEMBig

CHA offense vs MEM defense

Offense 30th of 30 against a defense 13th, on the model’s ratings

MEMBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CHA 18.8%, MEM 15.4%. Forced: CHA 14.5%, MEM 15.7%

MEMBig

Recent form

Last 5: CHA 2-3 ATS, margin -3.4; MEM 5-0 ATS, margin +14.2

Context

Tempo

About 101 possessions: CHA plays 98.3 a game (30th fastest), MEM 103.6 (13th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

CHA has played the 22nd-hardest schedule, MEM the 30th. A record against a soft schedule means less

CHASmall

MEM offense vs CHA defense

Offense 11th of 30 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings

MEMSmall

Home court

MEM at home. This season: MEM 2-0 at home, CHA 1-2 away

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CHA 31.6%, MEM 30.6%. Defensive: CHA 76.6%, MEM 75.0%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: CHA 18.9, MEM 25.3. Allowed: CHA 28.4, MEM 31.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CHA 100%, MEM 100%. Transfers in: CHA 0, MEM 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHA WWLLL	3-4	43%	1-2	—
MEM WWWWW	6-0	100%	2-0	—

Venue/role: CHA away; MEM home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHA UUUUO	1-6	14%	3-4
MEM UOUUO	2-4	33%	6-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHAlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	1-6 14%
MEMlast 6	6-0 100%	6-0 100%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Hornets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 24	vs DET	L89–97LU
Mar 26	vs NY	W110–96LU
Mar 28	vs UTAH	W150–95WO

Grizzlies

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 24	@ IND	W125–106WU
Mar 25	vs CHI	W125–124WO
Mar 28	@ BKN	L115–126LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

CHA 5–5 MEMSeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · CHA has won the last 2 meetings · CHA 5-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 21, 2025-26	MEM 101 @ CHA 124	CHA -18.5	CHA W
Jan 28, 2025-26	CHA 112 @ MEM 97	MEM +2.5	CHA W
Apr 8, 2024-25	MEM 124 @ CHA 100	CHA +14.5	MEM W
Jan 22, 2024-25	CHA 120 @ MEM 132	MEM -11.5	MEM W
Mar 13, 2023-24	CHA 110 @ MEM 98	MEM +2.5	CHA W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Hornets

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −6.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-6

14% overs · avg −15.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-614%

U U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@BKN	W 110-103	-1.5	W +5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 23	vsATL	L 81-128	+2.5	L −44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsMIA	W 115-110	+4.5	W +9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsWSH	W 110-103	-2.5	W +4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@DET	L 89-97	+7.5	L −0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@WSH	L 79-95	+1.5	L −14.5	218.5	U 174
Oct 31	vsPHI	L 104-109	+1.5	L −3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

+5.5

ATL

L 81-128

−44.5

MIA

W 115-110

+9.5

WSH

W 110-103

+4.5

DET

L 89-97

−0.5

WSH

L 79-95

−14.5

PHI

L 104-109

−3.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

−7.5

ATL

L 81-128

−17.5

MIA

W 115-110

−2.5

WSH

W 110-103

−12.5

DET

L 89-97

−26.5

WSH

L 79-95

−44.5

PHI

L 104-109

+1.5

over 1under 6avg −15.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Grizzlies

6 games played

Straight up

6-0

100% wins

Against the spread

6-0

100% covers · avg +14.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −8.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsUTAH	W 123-103	-1.5	W +18.5	240.5	U 226
Oct 23	@GS	W 111-108	+4.5	W +7.5	236.5	U 219
Oct 25	@SAC	W 123-112	-3.5	W +7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 26	@UTAH	W 110-105	-1.5	W +3.5	237.5	U 215
Oct 29	@POR	W 124-103	+7.5	W +28.5	233.5	U 227
Oct 31	vsSAC	W 136-105	-7.5	W +23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UTAH

W 123-103

+18.5

W 111-108

+7.5

SAC

W 123-112

+7.5

UTAH

W 110-105

+3.5

POR

W 124-103

+28.5

SAC

W 136-105

+23.5

covered 6didn’t cover 0avg +14.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UTAH

W 123-103

−14.5

W 111-108

−17.5

SAC

W 123-112

+0.5

UTAH

W 110-105

−22.5

POR

W 124-103

−6.5

SAC

W 136-105

+11.5

over 2under 4avg −8.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Grizzlies has the better starters

Position by position: Hornets 1, Grizzlies 4, even 0

HornetsBetterGrizzlies

G D. Schroder11.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.4 ast Score 21

MEMBig

G T. Jerome25.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 5.6 ast Score 97

G S. James3.7 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 63

MEMSmall

F C. Boozer17.7 pts · 10.5 reb · 5.7 ast Score 87

F B. Miller24.4 pts · 6 reb · 2.3 ast Score 70

CHABig

F C. Coward13 pts · 8.6 reb · 2.6 ast Score 33

F M. Diabate9.4 pts · 9.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 66

MEMSmall

F J. Wells12.2 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 85

C N. Reid15.9 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 14

MEMBig

C Z. Edey7 pts · 7 reb · 1 ast Score 92

HornetsBetterGrizzlies

CHA offense30th of 30 · -7.4

MEMBig

MEM defense13th of 30 · +1.1

CHA defense6th of 30 · +4.4

CHASmall

MEM offense11th of 30 · +1.3

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

MEMBig

Backcourt+16.5 · 1 player

Frontcourt+7.7 · 3 players

MEMBig

Frontcourt+29.5 · 4 players

Bench-5.0 · 5 players

CHABig

Bench-18.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCHA betterMEM betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Hornets

Guards

D. Schroder32 minS. James25 minG. Allen27 minL. McNeeley12 minC. Anderson11 minM. AjayiNew

Forwards

B. Miller34 minM. Diabate29 minR. O'Neale18 minT. Salaun14 minH. Steinbach7 min

Centers

N. Reid29 minR. Kalkbrenner17 minP. Hall13 min

Grizzlies

Guards

T. Jerome30 minJ. Mashack22 minJ. Small21 minC. Spencer19 minW. Clayton11 min

Forwards

C. Boozer31 minC. Coward28 minJ. Wells27 minJ. Grant24 minT. Hendricks19 minO. Prosper19 min

Centers

Z. Edey20 minI. Stewart18 minC. Cooper3 min

Out

S. PippenDay-To-DayQ. PostDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CHA98.3 #30

MEM121.2 #1

Points per possession

CHA0.99 #30

MEM1.16 #4

Pace (possessions)

CHA98.3 #30

MEM103.6 #13

Shooting

Effective FG%

CHA48.4 #29

MEM55.9 #5

3-point %

CHA29.6 #28

MEM41.7 #1

3-point attempt rate

CHA50.8 #2

MEM42.1 #19

Free throw rate

CHA18.9 #30

MEM25.3 #22

Possessions

Turnover rate

CHA18.8 #29

MEM15.4 #16

Offensive rebound rate

CHA31.6 #4

MEM30.6 #5

Assists per game

CHA21.6 #30

MEM27.0 #13

Defense

Points allowed

CHA106.4 #4

MEM106.0 #3

Points allowed per possession

CHA1.09 #15

MEM1.03 #2

Opponent effective FG%

CHA53.1 #15

MEM49.2 #3

Opponent 3-point %

CHA37.5 #24

MEM30.0 #3

Turnovers forced

CHA14.5 #23

MEM15.7 #15

Defensive rebound rate

CHA76.6 #5

MEM75.0 #9

Steals per game

CHA7.1 #25

MEM6.3 #28

Blocks per game

CHA5.0 #15

MEM5.2 #11

CHA		MEM
Scoring
98.3 #30	Points per game	121.2 #1
0.99 #30	Points per possession	1.16 #4
98.3 #30	Pace (possessions)	103.6 #13
Shooting
48.4 #29	Effective FG%	55.9 #5
29.6 #28	3-point %	41.7 #1
50.8 #2	3-point attempt rate	42.1 #19
18.9 #30	Free throw rate	25.3 #22
Possessions
18.8 #29	Turnover rate	15.4 #16
31.6 #4	Offensive rebound rate	30.6 #5
21.6 #30	Assists per game	27.0 #13
Defense
106.4 #4	Points allowed	106.0 #3
1.09 #15	Points allowed per possession	1.03 #2
53.1 #15	Opponent effective FG%	49.2 #3
37.5 #24	Opponent 3-point %	30.0 #3
14.5 #23	Turnovers forced	15.7 #15
76.6 #5	Defensive rebound rate	75.0 #9
7.1 #25	Steals per game	6.3 #28
5.0 #15	Blocks per game	5.2 #11

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hornets

3-4 overall · 3-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs 76ers104–109
L@ Wizards79–95
L@ Pistons89–97
Wvs Wizards110–103
Wvs Heat115–110

A week or more of rest.

Grizzlies

6-0 overall · 6-0 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Kings136–105
W@ Trail Blazers124–103
W@ Jazz110–105
W@ Kings123–112
W@ Warriors111–108

A week or more of rest.

Hornets @ Grizzlies

What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Hornets

Grizzlies

Grizzlies has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Hornets

Grizzlies