New York Knicks at Charlotte Hornets: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Mar 26, 7:00 PM ETSpectrum Center · at Hornets · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Knicks and Hornets
NY	This season	CHA
2-4	Record	3-4
1-5	ATS	3-4
1-5	O/U	1-6

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NY 108–103 · win probability NY 65%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 211.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NY has more of the edges

NY 4, CHA 2 · 2026-27 so far

NYBig

CHA offense vs NY defense

Offense 30th of 30 against a defense 3rd, on the model’s ratings

CHABig

NY offense vs CHA defense

Offense 23rd of 30 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings

NYBig

Three-pointers

NY hits 35.2% and allows 35.5%; CHA hits 29.6% and allows 37.5%. Threes are 43.2% and 50.8% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

NY has played the 13th-hardest schedule, CHA the 22nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

NYSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: NY 24.5, CHA 18.9. Allowed: NY 25.9, CHA 28.4

NYSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NY 15.2%, CHA 18.8%. Forced: NY 13.2%, CHA 14.5%

CHASmall

Home court

CHA at home. This season: CHA 2-2 at home, NY 1-2 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: NY 1-4 ATS, margin +0.4; CHA 2-3 ATS, margin -3.4

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: NY 49.5 and allows 53.1; CHA 48.4 and allows 53.1

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NY 30.3%, CHA 31.6%. Defensive: NY 78.7%, CHA 76.6%

Context

Tempo

About 100 possessions: NY plays 101.0 a game (28th fastest), CHA 98.3 (30th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NY 100%, CHA 100%. Transfers in: NY 0, CHA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NY LLWLL	1-5	17%	0-3	—
CHA WWLLL	3-4	43%	2-2	—

Venue/role: NY away; CHA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NY UUUOU	1-5	17%	2-4
CHA UUUUO	1-6	14%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NYlast 6	2-4 33%	1-5 17%	1-5 17%
CHAlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	1-6 14%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Knicks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 28	@ ORL	L102–111LU
Mar 30	@ ORL	L102–111LU
Apr 1	vs CHA	L96–110WU

Hornets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 28	vs UTAH	W150–95WO
Mar 30	vs MIA	W115–110WU
Apr 1	@ NY	W110–96LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

NY 11–7 CHANY leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · CHA has won the last 2 meetings · NY 10-8 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 12, 2025-26	CHA 110 @ NY 96	NY +14.5	NY W
Mar 26, 2025-26	NY 103 @ CHA 114	CHA -2.5	CHA W
Dec 3, 2025-26	CHA 104 @ NY 119	NY -9.5	NY W
Nov 26, 2025-26	NY 129 @ CHA 101	CHA +6.5	NY W
Mar 20, 2024-25	NY 98 @ CHA 115	CHA +7.5	CHA W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Knicks

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −11.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsPHI	L 100-106	-4.5	L −10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 23	@BOS	L 103-107	+2.5	L −1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 25	vsORL	L 102-111	-6.5	L −15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 27	vsDET	W 111-97	-4.5	W +9.5	220.5	U 208
Oct 28	@CHI	W 133-127	-7.5	L −1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@PHI	L 93-98	+2.5	L −2.5	224.5	U 191

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−10.5

BOS

L 103-107

−1.5

ORL

L 102-111

−15.5

DET

W 111-97

+9.5

CHI

W 133-127

−1.5

PHI

L 93-98

−2.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−25.5

BOS

L 103-107

−10.5

ORL

L 102-111

−11.5

DET

W 111-97

−12.5

CHI

W 133-127

+26.5

PHI

L 93-98

−33.5

over 1under 5avg −11.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Hornets

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −6.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-6

14% overs · avg −15.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-614%

U U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@BKN	W 110-103	-1.5	W +5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 23	vsATL	L 81-128	+2.5	L −44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsMIA	W 115-110	+4.5	W +9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsWSH	W 110-103	-2.5	W +4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@DET	L 89-97	+7.5	L −0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@WSH	L 79-95	+1.5	L −14.5	218.5	U 174
Oct 31	vsPHI	L 104-109	+1.5	L −3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

+5.5

ATL

L 81-128

−44.5

MIA

W 115-110

+9.5

WSH

W 110-103

+4.5

DET

L 89-97

−0.5

WSH

L 79-95

−14.5

PHI

L 104-109

−3.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

−7.5

ATL

L 81-128

−17.5

MIA

W 115-110

−2.5

WSH

W 110-103

−12.5

DET

L 89-97

−26.5

WSH

L 79-95

−44.5

PHI

L 104-109

+1.5

over 1under 6avg −15.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Knicks has the better starters

Position by position: Knicks 3, Hornets 0, even 2

KnicksBetterHornets

G J. Brunson25.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 5.2 ast Score 86

NYBig

G D. Schroder11.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.4 ast Score 21

G J. Hart8.7 pts · 7.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 91

NYSmall

G S. James3.7 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 63

G M. Bridges6.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 2 ast Score 75

Even

F B. Miller24.4 pts · 6 reb · 2.3 ast Score 70

F O. Anunoby16.2 pts · 5.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 73

Even

F M. Diabate9.4 pts · 9.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 66

C K. Towns21.8 pts · 13.5 reb · 3.2 ast Score 80

NYBig

C N. Reid15.9 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 14

KnicksBetterHornets

NY offense23rd of 30 · -1.8

CHABig

CHA defense6th of 30 · +4.4

NY defense3rd of 30 · +5.2

NYBig

CHA offense30th of 30 · -7.4

Backcourt+35.0 · 3 players

NYBig

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt+17.7 · 2 players

NYBig

Frontcourt+7.7 · 3 players

Bench+5.0 · 5 players

NYBig

Bench-5.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestNY betterCHA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Knicks

Guards

J. Brunson35 minJ. Hart33 minM. Bridges28 minL. Shamet24 minM. McBride19 minT. Kolek14 min

Forwards

O. Anunoby34 minD. Knecht10 minM. Diawara9 minP. Dadiet5 minT. NickelNew

Centers

K. Towns32 minJ. Wiseman15 minA. Drummond13 min

Out

J. AlvaradoOut

Hornets

Guards

D. Schroder32 minS. James25 minG. Allen27 minL. McNeeley12 minC. Anderson11 minM. AjayiNew

Forwards

B. Miller34 minM. Diabate29 minR. O'Neale18 minT. Salaun14 minH. Steinbach7 min

Centers

N. Reid29 minR. Kalkbrenner17 minP. Hall13 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NY107.0 #27

CHA98.3 #30

Points per possession

NY1.05 #24

CHA0.99 #30

Pace (possessions)

NY101.0 #28

CHA98.3 #30

Shooting

Effective FG%

NY49.5 #27

CHA48.4 #29

3-point %

NY35.2 #13

CHA29.6 #28

3-point attempt rate

NY43.2 #14

CHA50.8 #2

Free throw rate

NY24.5 #23

CHA18.9 #30

Possessions

Turnover rate

NY15.2 #14

CHA18.8 #29

Offensive rebound rate

NY30.3 #6

CHA31.6 #4

Assists per game

NY26.2 #18

CHA21.6 #30

Defense

Points allowed

NY107.7 #6

CHA106.4 #4

Points allowed per possession

NY1.07 #12

CHA1.09 #15

Opponent effective FG%

NY53.1 #14

CHA53.1 #15

Opponent 3-point %

NY35.5 #18

CHA37.5 #24

Turnovers forced

NY13.2 #29

CHA14.5 #23

Defensive rebound rate

NY78.7 #1

CHA76.6 #5

Steals per game

NY7.3 #23

CHA7.1 #25

Blocks per game

NY4.0 #28

CHA5.0 #15

NY		CHA
Scoring
107.0 #27	Points per game	98.3 #30
1.05 #24	Points per possession	0.99 #30
101.0 #28	Pace (possessions)	98.3 #30
Shooting
49.5 #27	Effective FG%	48.4 #29
35.2 #13	3-point %	29.6 #28
43.2 #14	3-point attempt rate	50.8 #2
24.5 #23	Free throw rate	18.9 #30
Possessions
15.2 #14	Turnover rate	18.8 #29
30.3 #6	Offensive rebound rate	31.6 #4
26.2 #18	Assists per game	21.6 #30
Defense
107.7 #6	Points allowed	106.4 #4
1.07 #12	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #15
53.1 #14	Opponent effective FG%	53.1 #15
35.5 #18	Opponent 3-point %	37.5 #24
13.2 #29	Turnovers forced	14.5 #23
78.7 #1	Defensive rebound rate	76.6 #5
7.3 #23	Steals per game	7.1 #25
4.0 #28	Blocks per game	5.0 #15

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Knicks

2-4 overall · 2-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ 76ers93–98
W@ Bulls133–127
Wvs Pistons111–97
Lvs Magic102–111
L@ Celtics103–107

A week or more of rest.

Hornets

3-4 overall · 3-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs 76ers104–109
L@ Wizards79–95
L@ Pistons89–97
Wvs Wizards110–103
Wvs Heat115–110

A week or more of rest.

Knicks @ Hornets

What could decide it: NY has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Knicks

Hornets

Knicks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Knicks

Hornets