Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Mar 30, 7:00 PM ETSpectrum Center · at Hornets · Conference game

#18MIAHeat

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Heat and Hornets
MIA	This season	CHA
2-4	Record	3-4
2-4	ATS	3-4
3-3	O/U	1-6

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CHA 113–113 · win probability CHA 50%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 225.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIA has more of the edges

MIA 4, CHA 2 · 2026-27 so far

CHABig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MIA 24.5%, CHA 31.6%. Defensive: MIA 72.3%, CHA 76.6%

MIABig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MIA 14.1%, CHA 18.8%. Forced: MIA 15.4%, CHA 14.5%

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: MIA plays 106.2 a game (5th fastest), CHA 98.3 (30th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

MIA has played the 11th-hardest schedule, CHA the 22nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

MIABig

Free throws

Free throw rate: MIA 27.3, CHA 18.9. Allowed: MIA 23.2, CHA 28.4

MIASmall

MIA offense vs CHA defense

Offense 1st of 30 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings

CHASmall

Home court

CHA at home. This season: CHA 2-2 at home, MIA 1-1 away

MIASmall

CHA offense vs MIA defense

Offense 30th of 30 against a defense 26th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: MIA 54.6 and allows 56.8; CHA 48.4 and allows 53.1

Even

Three-pointers

MIA hits 34.1% and allows 40.6%; CHA hits 29.6% and allows 37.5%. Threes are 41.7% and 50.8% of their shots

Even

Recent form

Last 5: MIA 2-3 ATS, margin +1.2; CHA 2-3 ATS, margin -3.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MIA 100%, CHA 100%. Transfers in: MIA 0, CHA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA LLLWW	2-4	33%	1-1	—
CHA WWLLL	3-4	43%	2-2	—

Venue/role: MIA away; CHA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA OUUOO	3-3	50%	2-4
CHA UUUUO	1-6	14%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIAlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
CHAlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	1-6 14%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Heat

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 2	@ BOS	L129–147LO
Apr 4	@ DET	L111–128LO
Apr 5	@ ORL	L117–121LO

Hornets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 1	@ NY	W110–96LU
Apr 2	@ MIL	L121–122WO
Apr 4	@ CLE	L113–118WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 22 since 2021-22

MIA 16–6 CHAMIA leads · 22 games since 2021-22 · CHA has won the last 3 meetings · MIA 12-9-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 24, 2026-27	MIA 110 @ CHA 115	CHA +4.5	CHA W
Apr 14, 2025-26	MIA 126 @ CHA 127	CHA -5.5	MIA W
Mar 17, 2025-26	MIA 106 @ CHA 136	CHA -5.5	CHA W
Mar 6, 2025-26	MIA 128 @ CHA 120	CHA -7.5	MIA W
Nov 7, 2025-26	CHA 108 @ MIA 126	MIA -7.5	MIA W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Heat

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIN	L 106-131	-1.5	L −26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	vsDET	L 111-128	+2.5	L −14.5	235.5	O 239
Oct 24	@CHA	L 110-115	-4.5	L −9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsDAL	L 109-113	-7.5	L −11.5	240.5	U 222
Oct 28	@ATL	W 129-117	+2.5	W +14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 30	vsIND	W 145-125	-8.5	W +11.5	236.5	O 270

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−26.5

DET

L 111-128

−14.5

CHA

L 110-115

−9.5

DAL

L 109-113

−11.5

ATL

W 129-117

+14.5

IND

W 145-125

+11.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−3.5

DET

L 111-128

+3.5

CHA

L 110-115

−2.5

DAL

L 109-113

−18.5

ATL

W 129-117

+2.5

IND

W 145-125

+33.5

over 3under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Hornets

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −6.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-6

14% overs · avg −15.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-614%

U U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@BKN	W 110-103	-1.5	W +5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 23	vsATL	L 81-128	+2.5	L −44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsMIA	W 115-110	+4.5	W +9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsWSH	W 110-103	-2.5	W +4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@DET	L 89-97	+7.5	L −0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@WSH	L 79-95	+1.5	L −14.5	218.5	U 174
Oct 31	vsPHI	L 104-109	+1.5	L −3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

+5.5

ATL

L 81-128

−44.5

MIA

W 115-110

+9.5

WSH

W 110-103

+4.5

DET

L 89-97

−0.5

WSH

L 79-95

−14.5

PHI

L 104-109

−3.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

−7.5

ATL

L 81-128

−17.5

MIA

W 115-110

−2.5

WSH

W 110-103

−12.5

DET

L 89-97

−26.5

WSH

L 79-95

−44.5

PHI

L 104-109

+1.5

over 1under 6avg −15.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Heat has the better starters

Position by position: Heat 3, Hornets 1, even 1

HeatBetterHornets

G D. Mitchell16.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 8.2 ast Score 48

MIASmall

G D. Schroder11.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.4 ast Score 21

G K. Thompson10.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 20

CHABig

G S. James3.7 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 63

F G. Antetokounmpo28.2 pts · 12.3 reb · 5.5 ast Score 89

MIASmall

F B. Miller24.4 pts · 6 reb · 2.3 ast Score 70

F A. Wiggins10.8 pts · 3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 62

Even

F M. Diabate9.4 pts · 9.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 66

C B. Adebayo16.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 3.3 ast Score 66

MIABig

C N. Reid15.9 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 14

HeatBetterHornets

MIA offense1st of 30 · +4.9

MIASmall

CHA defense6th of 30 · +4.4

MIA defense26th of 30 · -5.2

Even

CHA offense30th of 30 · -7.4

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

Even

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt+23.1 · 3 players

MIABig

Frontcourt+7.7 · 3 players

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

MIABig

Bench-5.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMIA betterCHA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Heat

Guards

D. Mitchell34 minK. Thompson21 minP. Larsson30 minD. Smith10 minR. Conwell4 min

Forwards

G. Antetokounmpo32 minA. Wiggins27 minB. Portis23 minS. Fontecchio17 minN. Jovic13 minM. Gardner9 min

Centers

B. Adebayo32 minN. Richards15 min

Out

T. HardawayDay-To-Day

Hornets

Guards

D. Schroder32 minS. James25 minG. Allen27 minL. McNeeley12 minC. Anderson11 minM. AjayiNew

Forwards

B. Miller34 minM. Diabate29 minR. O'Neale18 minT. Salaun14 minH. Steinbach7 min

Centers

N. Reid29 minR. Kalkbrenner17 minP. Hall13 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MIA118.3 #9

CHA98.3 #30

Points per possession

MIA1.11 #14

CHA0.99 #30

Pace (possessions)

MIA106.2 #5

CHA98.3 #30

Shooting

Effective FG%

MIA54.6 #12

CHA48.4 #29

3-point %

MIA34.1 #19

CHA29.6 #28

3-point attempt rate

MIA41.7 #20

CHA50.8 #2

Free throw rate

MIA27.3 #19

CHA18.9 #30

Possessions

Turnover rate

MIA14.1 #5

CHA18.8 #29

Offensive rebound rate

MIA24.5 #24

CHA31.6 #4

Assists per game

MIA28.8 #3

CHA21.6 #30

Defense

Points allowed

MIA121.5 #26

CHA106.4 #4

Points allowed per possession

MIA1.15 #26

CHA1.09 #15

Opponent effective FG%

MIA56.8 #27

CHA53.1 #15

Opponent 3-point %

MIA40.6 #29

CHA37.5 #24

Turnovers forced

MIA15.4 #18

CHA14.5 #23

Defensive rebound rate

MIA72.3 #17

CHA76.6 #5

Steals per game

MIA8.3 #19

CHA7.1 #25

Blocks per game

MIA5.0 #13

CHA5.0 #15

MIA		CHA
Scoring
118.3 #9	Points per game	98.3 #30
1.11 #14	Points per possession	0.99 #30
106.2 #5	Pace (possessions)	98.3 #30
Shooting
54.6 #12	Effective FG%	48.4 #29
34.1 #19	3-point %	29.6 #28
41.7 #20	3-point attempt rate	50.8 #2
27.3 #19	Free throw rate	18.9 #30
Possessions
14.1 #5	Turnover rate	18.8 #29
24.5 #24	Offensive rebound rate	31.6 #4
28.8 #3	Assists per game	21.6 #30
Defense
121.5 #26	Points allowed	106.4 #4
1.15 #26	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #15
56.8 #27	Opponent effective FG%	53.1 #15
40.6 #29	Opponent 3-point %	37.5 #24
15.4 #18	Turnovers forced	14.5 #23
72.3 #17	Defensive rebound rate	76.6 #5
8.3 #19	Steals per game	7.1 #25
5.0 #13	Blocks per game	5.0 #15

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Heat

2-4 overall · 2-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Pacers145–125
W@ Hawks129–117
Lvs Mavericks109–113
L@ Hornets110–115
Lvs Pistons111–128

A week or more of rest.

Hornets

3-4 overall · 3-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs 76ers104–109
L@ Wizards79–95
L@ Pistons89–97
Wvs Wizards110–103
Wvs Heat115–110

A week or more of rest.

Heat @ Hornets

What could decide it: MIA has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Heat

Hornets

Heat has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Heat

Hornets