Miami Heat at Orlando Magic: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Apr 5, 7:00 PM ETKia Center · at Magic · Conference game

#18MIAHeat

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Heat and Magic
MIA	This season	ORL
2-4	Record	2-4
2-4	ATS	2-4
3-3	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ORL 118–116 · win probability ORL 54%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 234.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ORL has more of the edges

MIA 3, ORL 4 · 2026-27 so far

MIABig

MIA offense vs ORL defense

Offense 1st of 30 against a defense 15th, on the model’s ratings

MIABig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MIA 14.1%, ORL 17.0%. Forced: MIA 15.4%, ORL 13.6%

ORLBig

Three-pointers

MIA hits 34.1% and allows 40.6%; ORL hits 35.4% and allows 34.6%. Threes are 41.7% and 46.5% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

MIA has played the 11th-hardest schedule, ORL the 1st. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: MIA plays 106.2 a game (5th fastest), ORL 101.9 (22nd). Faster games mean more points

ORLSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: MIA 54.6 and allows 56.8; ORL 53.4 and allows 53.0

MIASmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MIA 24.5%, ORL 23.4%. Defensive: MIA 72.3%, ORL 68.9%

ORLSmall

ORL offense vs MIA defense

Offense 21st of 30 against a defense 26th, on the model’s ratings

ORLSmall

Home court

ORL at home. This season: ORL 0-3 at home, MIA 1-1 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: MIA 27.3, ORL 31.7. Allowed: MIA 23.2, ORL 29.8

Even

Recent form

Last 5: MIA 2-3 ATS, margin +1.2; ORL 2-3 ATS, margin -9.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MIA 100%, ORL 100%. Transfers in: MIA 0, ORL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA LLLWW	2-4	33%	1-1	—
ORL LWLWL	2-4	33%	0-3	—

Venue/role: MIA away; ORL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA OUUOO	3-3	50%	2-4
ORL UUOOU	3-3	50%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIAlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
ORLlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Heat

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 8	vs PHI	W119–109WU
Apr 9	vs WSH	W140–117WO
Apr 11	vs ORL	L117–121LO

Magic

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 7	vs BOS	L97–108LU
Apr 9	vs TOR	W121–114WO
Apr 11	@ MIA	W121–117WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 21 since 2021-22

MIA 11–10 ORLMIA leads · 21 games since 2021-22 · ORL has won the last 5 meetings · MIA 10-11 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 14, 2025-26	ORL 121 @ MIA 117	MIA -4.5	ORL W
Jan 28, 2025-26	ORL 133 @ MIA 124	MIA -3.5	ORL W
Dec 9, 2025-26	MIA 108 @ ORL 117	ORL -1.5	ORL W
Dec 5, 2025-26	MIA 105 @ ORL 106	ORL -6.5	MIA W
Oct 22, 2025-26	MIA 121 @ ORL 125	ORL -8.5	MIA W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Heat

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIN	L 106-131	-1.5	L −26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	vsDET	L 111-128	+2.5	L −14.5	235.5	O 239
Oct 24	@CHA	L 110-115	-4.5	L −9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsDAL	L 109-113	-7.5	L −11.5	240.5	U 222
Oct 28	@ATL	W 129-117	+2.5	W +14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 30	vsIND	W 145-125	-8.5	W +11.5	236.5	O 270

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−26.5

DET

L 111-128

−14.5

CHA

L 110-115

−9.5

DAL

L 109-113

−11.5

ATL

W 129-117

+14.5

IND

W 145-125

+11.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−3.5

DET

L 111-128

+3.5

CHA

L 110-115

−2.5

DAL

L 109-113

−18.5

ATL

W 129-117

+2.5

IND

W 145-125

+33.5

over 3under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Magic

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −5.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsATL	L 125-132	-2.5	L −9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	vsMIN	L 93-115	-1.5	L −23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	@NY	W 111-102	+6.5	W +15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 28	@TOR	L 99-129	+5.5	L −24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	@TOR	W 121-114	+5.5	W +12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	vsBOS	L 97-108	+6.5	L −4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

−9.5

MIN

L 93-115

−23.5

W 111-102

+15.5

TOR

L 99-129

−24.5

TOR

W 121-114

+12.5

BOS

L 97-108

−4.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

+23.5

MIN

L 93-115

−26.5

W 111-102

−11.5

TOR

L 99-129

+3.5

TOR

W 121-114

+8.5

BOS

L 97-108

−16.5

over 3under 3avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Heat has the better starters

Position by position: Heat 3, Magic 0, even 2

HeatBetterMagic

G D. Mitchell16.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 8.2 ast Score 48

Even

G D. Bane17.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 62

G K. Thompson10.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 20

MIASmall

G J. Richardson5.3 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast Score 3

F G. Antetokounmpo28.2 pts · 12.3 reb · 5.5 ast Score 89

Even

F F. Wagner19.7 pts · 6.7 reb · 7.8 ast Score 90

F A. Wiggins10.8 pts · 3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 62

MIASmall

F T. da Silva14.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 35

C B. Adebayo16.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 3.3 ast Score 66

MIABig

C W. Carter13.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 28

HeatBetterMagic

MIA offense1st of 30 · +4.9

MIABig

ORL defense15th of 30 · -0.1

MIA defense26th of 30 · -5.2

ORLSmall

ORL offense21st of 30 · -1.5

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

MIASmall

Backcourt-2.5 · 2 players

Frontcourt+23.1 · 3 players

MIABig

Frontcourt+14.7 · 3 players

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

Even

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMIA betterORL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Heat

Guards

D. Mitchell34 minK. Thompson21 minP. Larsson30 minD. Smith10 minR. Conwell4 min

Forwards

G. Antetokounmpo32 minA. Wiggins27 minB. Portis23 minS. Fontecchio17 minN. Jovic13 minM. Gardner9 min

Centers

B. Adebayo32 minN. Richards15 min

Out

T. HardawayDay-To-Day

Magic

Guards

D. Bane35 minJ. Richardson20 minJ. Carter18 minA. Morales6 min

Forwards

F. Wagner35 minT. da Silva29 minJ. Cain15 min

Centers

W. Carter32 minG. Bitadze9 minN. Vucevic9 minC. Castleton5 min

Out

J. SuggsOutP. BancheroOutA. BlackOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MIA118.3 #9

ORL107.7 #26

Points per possession

MIA1.11 #14

ORL1.07 #21

Pace (possessions)

MIA106.2 #5

ORL101.9 #22

Shooting

Effective FG%

MIA54.6 #12

ORL53.4 #15

3-point %

MIA34.1 #19

ORL35.4 #11

3-point attempt rate

MIA41.7 #20

ORL46.5 #6

Free throw rate

MIA27.3 #19

ORL31.7 #9

Possessions

Turnover rate

MIA14.1 #5

ORL17.0 #24

Offensive rebound rate

MIA24.5 #24

ORL23.4 #26

Assists per game

MIA28.8 #3

ORL26.3 #16

Defense

Points allowed

MIA121.5 #26

ORL116.7 #22

Points allowed per possession

MIA1.15 #26

ORL1.13 #24

Opponent effective FG%

MIA56.8 #27

ORL53.0 #13

Opponent 3-point %

MIA40.6 #29

ORL34.6 #13

Turnovers forced

MIA15.4 #18

ORL13.6 #26

Defensive rebound rate

MIA72.3 #17

ORL68.9 #26

Steals per game

MIA8.3 #19

ORL7.0 #26

Blocks per game

MIA5.0 #13

ORL4.2 #23

MIA		ORL
Scoring
118.3 #9	Points per game	107.7 #26
1.11 #14	Points per possession	1.07 #21
106.2 #5	Pace (possessions)	101.9 #22
Shooting
54.6 #12	Effective FG%	53.4 #15
34.1 #19	3-point %	35.4 #11
41.7 #20	3-point attempt rate	46.5 #6
27.3 #19	Free throw rate	31.7 #9
Possessions
14.1 #5	Turnover rate	17.0 #24
24.5 #24	Offensive rebound rate	23.4 #26
28.8 #3	Assists per game	26.3 #16
Defense
121.5 #26	Points allowed	116.7 #22
1.15 #26	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #24
56.8 #27	Opponent effective FG%	53.0 #13
40.6 #29	Opponent 3-point %	34.6 #13
15.4 #18	Turnovers forced	13.6 #26
72.3 #17	Defensive rebound rate	68.9 #26
8.3 #19	Steals per game	7.0 #26
5.0 #13	Blocks per game	4.2 #23

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Heat

2-4 overall · 2-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Pacers145–125
W@ Hawks129–117
Lvs Mavericks109–113
L@ Hornets110–115
Lvs Pistons111–128

A week or more of rest.

Magic

2-4 overall · 2-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Celtics97–108
W@ Raptors121–114
L@ Raptors99–129
W@ Knicks111–102
Lvs Timberwolves93–115

A week or more of rest.

Heat @ Magic

What could decide it: ORL has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Heat

Magic

Heat has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Heat

Magic