Brooklyn Nets at Cleveland Cavaliers: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Apr 5, 7:00 PM ETRocket Arena · at Cavaliers · Conference game

#27BKNNets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Nets and Cavaliers
BKN	This season	CLE
1-5	Record	4-2
3-3	ATS	2-4
3-3	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CLE 122–106 · win probability CLE 86%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 227.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges

BKN 0, CLE 7 · 2026-27 so far

CLEBig

CLE offense vs BKN defense

Offense 2nd of 30 against a defense 22nd, on the model’s ratings

CLEBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: BKN 50.7 and allows 55.3; CLE 55.3 and allows 52.5

CLEBig

BKN offense vs CLE defense

Offense 29th of 30 against a defense 20th, on the model’s ratings

CLESmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: BKN 32.9, CLE 28.9. Allowed: BKN 33.5, CLE 23.2

CLESmall

Three-pointers

BKN hits 35.1% and allows 35.8%; CLE hits 37.0% and allows 33.7%. Threes are 48.0% and 43.6% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

BKN has played the 19th-hardest schedule, CLE the 24th. A record against a soft schedule means less

CLESmall

Home court

CLE at home. This season: CLE 3-0 at home, BKN 1-2 away

CLESmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BKN 18.2%, CLE 14.2%. Forced: BKN 15.9%, CLE 14.1%

Context

Tempo

About 106 possessions: BKN plays 105.1 a game (10th fastest), CLE 106.2 (3rd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BKN 25.4%, CLE 26.7%. Defensive: BKN 77.8%, CLE 73.9%

Even

Recent form

Last 5: BKN 3-2 ATS, margin -8.0; CLE 2-3 ATS, margin +7.6

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BKN 100%, CLE 100%. Transfers in: BKN 0, CLE 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BKN WLWLW	3-3	50%	3-0	—
CLE LLWLW	2-4	33%	1-2	—

Venue/role: BKN away; CLE home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BKN OOOUU	3-3	50%	1-5
CLE OOUUO	3-3	50%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BKNlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
CLElast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Nets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 7	@ TOR	L101–136LO
Apr 9	@ CHA	L103–110LU
Apr 11	vs TOR	L101–136LO

Cavaliers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 7	@ SA	W113–101WU
Apr 9	@ IND	W117–108LU
Apr 11	vs ATL	L111–114LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 20 since 2021-22

BKN 6–14 CLECLE leads · 20 games since 2021-22 · CLE has won the last 8 meetings · BKN 11-9 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 24, 2026-27	BKN 121 @ CLE 125	CLE -11.5	BKN W
Mar 1, 2025-26	CLE 106 @ BKN 102	BKN +12.5	BKN W
Feb 19, 2025-26	BKN 84 @ CLE 112	CLE -15.5	CLE W
Oct 24, 2025-26	CLE 131 @ BKN 124	BKN +11.5	BKN W
Mar 11, 2024-25	BKN 104 @ CLE 109	CLE -14.5	BKN W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Nets

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHA	L 103-110	+1.5	L −5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 24	@CLE	L 121-125	+11.5	W +7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 25	vsIND	L 109-136	+5.5	L −21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 27	@BOS	L 124-125	+13.5	W +12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsDET	L 94-110	+8.5	L −7.5	222.5	U 204
Nov 1	@IND	W 98-90	+3.5	W +11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−5.5

CLE

L 121-125

+7.5

IND

L 109-136

−21.5

BOS

L 124-125

+12.5

DET

L 94-110

−7.5

IND

W 98-90

+11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−7.5

CLE

L 121-125

+17.5

IND

L 109-136

+13.5

BOS

L 124-125

+25.5

DET

L 94-110

−18.5

IND

W 98-90

−42.5

over 3under 3avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Cavaliers

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@PHI	L 106-114	+2.5	L −5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsBKN	W 125-121	-11.5	L −7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 26	vsMIN	W 127-125	-3.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsWSH	W 121-111	-9.5	W +0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 29	@ATL	L 111-114	+1.5	L −1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@MIL	W 136-111	-8.5	W +16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−5.5

BKN

W 125-121

−7.5

MIN

W 127-125

−1.5

WSH

W 121-111

+0.5

ATL

L 111-114

−1.5

MIL

W 136-111

+16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−17.5

BKN

W 125-121

+17.5

MIN

W 127-125

+17.5

WSH

W 121-111

−8.5

ATL

L 111-114

−12.5

MIL

W 136-111

+12.5

over 3under 3avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Cavaliers has the better starters

Position by position: Nets 1, Cavaliers 4, even 0

NetsBetterCavaliers

G K. Ellis5 pts · 2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 21

CLESmall

G J. Harden16.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 53

G N. Traore10.5 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 1

CLEBig

G D. Mitchell22.7 pts · 5.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 86

F J. Randle20.8 pts · 7.2 reb · 5.3 ast Score 39

CLEBig

G S. Merrill8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 90

F M. Porter21.2 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 91

BKNBig

C E. Mobley19.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 30

C D. Sharpe8 pts · 7.7 reb · 1.7 ast Score 6

CLEBig

C J. Allen15.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 100

NetsBetterCavaliers

BKN offense29th of 30 · -5.5

CLESmall

CLE defense20th of 30 · -1.2

BKN defense22nd of 30 · -1.7

CLEBig

CLE offense2nd of 30 · +4.0

Backcourt-12.0 · 2 players

CLEBig

Backcourt+25.3 · 3 players

Frontcourt+7.8 · 3 players

CLEBig

Frontcourt+17.9 · 2 players

Bench-17.9 · 5 players

CLEBig

Bench+4.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestBKN betterCLE betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Nets

Guards

K. Ellis24 minN. Traore21 minT. Mann24 minD. Powell21 minB. Saraf21 min

Forwards

J. Randle34 minM. Porter32 minC. Johnson22 minN. Clowney22 minD. Wolf21 minJ. Minott11 min

Centers

D. Sharpe23 minM. Wagner19 min

Out

M. BrownDay-To-DayE. DeminOut

Cavaliers

Guards

J. Harden34 minD. Mitchell33 minS. Merrill24 minM. Thomas21 minT. Proctor12 minC. Porter8 min

Forwards

M. Hezonja18 minT. Enaruna10 minR. Minix7 min

Centers

E. Mobley33 minJ. Allen28 minT. Bryant11 minE. UdehNew

Out

P. WatsonDay-To-DayJ. TysonOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BKN108.2 #25

CLE121.0 #2

Points per possession

BKN1.03 #29

CLE1.14 #7

Pace (possessions)

BKN105.1 #10

CLE106.2 #3

Shooting

Effective FG%

BKN50.7 #26

CLE55.3 #7

3-point %

BKN35.1 #15

CLE37.0 #8

3-point attempt rate

BKN48.0 #3

CLE43.6 #12

Free throw rate

BKN32.9 #6

CLE28.9 #13

Possessions

Turnover rate

BKN18.2 #27

CLE14.2 #6

Offensive rebound rate

BKN25.4 #23

CLE26.7 #20

Assists per game

BKN22.8 #28

CLE28.7 #4

Defense

Points allowed

BKN116.0 #21

CLE116.0 #20

Points allowed per possession

BKN1.11 #18

CLE1.09 #14

Opponent effective FG%

BKN55.3 #23

CLE52.5 #12

Opponent 3-point %

BKN35.8 #19

CLE33.7 #11

Turnovers forced

BKN15.9 #12

CLE14.1 #25

Defensive rebound rate

BKN77.8 #2

CLE73.9 #11

Steals per game

BKN9.0 #14

CLE7.8 #22

Blocks per game

BKN4.7 #17

CLE6.3 #6

BKN		CLE
Scoring
108.2 #25	Points per game	121.0 #2
1.03 #29	Points per possession	1.14 #7
105.1 #10	Pace (possessions)	106.2 #3
Shooting
50.7 #26	Effective FG%	55.3 #7
35.1 #15	3-point %	37.0 #8
48.0 #3	3-point attempt rate	43.6 #12
32.9 #6	Free throw rate	28.9 #13
Possessions
18.2 #27	Turnover rate	14.2 #6
25.4 #23	Offensive rebound rate	26.7 #20
22.8 #28	Assists per game	28.7 #4
Defense
116.0 #21	Points allowed	116.0 #20
1.11 #18	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #14
55.3 #23	Opponent effective FG%	52.5 #12
35.8 #19	Opponent 3-point %	33.7 #11
15.9 #12	Turnovers forced	14.1 #25
77.8 #2	Defensive rebound rate	73.9 #11
9.0 #14	Steals per game	7.8 #22
4.7 #17	Blocks per game	6.3 #6

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Nets

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Pacers98–90
Lvs Pistons94–110
L@ Celtics124–125
Lvs Pacers109–136
L@ Cavaliers121–125

A week or more of rest.

Cavaliers

4-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Bucks136–111
L@ Hawks111–114
Wvs Wizards121–111
Wvs Timberwolves127–125
Wvs Nets125–121

A week or more of rest.

Nets @ Cavaliers

What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Nets

Cavaliers

Cavaliers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Nets

Cavaliers