Frost Bank Center · at Spurs
LineNo line yet
Total—
 CLE | This season | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 4-2 |
| 2-4 | ATS | 2-4 |
| 3-3 | O/U | 2-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects SA 118–112 · win probability SA 68%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 230.1
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it
CLE 4, SA 4 · 2026-27 so far
SABigSA offense vs CLE defense
Offense 5th of 30 against a defense 20th, on the model’s ratings
CLEBigThree-pointers
CLE hits 37.0% and allows 33.7%; SA hits 34.9% and allows 37.3%. Threes are 43.6% and 39.0% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
CLE has played the 24th-hardest schedule, SA the 15th. A record against a soft schedule means less
SASmallTurnovers
Turnover rate: CLE 14.2%, SA 13.1%. Forced: CLE 14.1%, SA 15.7%
CLESmallCLE offense vs SA defense
Offense 2nd of 30 against a defense 7th, on the model’s ratings
CLESmallFree throws
Free throw rate: CLE 28.9, SA 24.5. Allowed: CLE 23.2, SA 21.7
SASmallHome court
SA at home. This season: SA 2-2 at home, CLE 1-2 away
CLESmallShooting
Effective FG%: CLE 55.3 and allows 52.5; SA 53.3 and allows 52.1
SASmallRebounding
Offensive rebound rate: CLE 26.7%, SA 27.2%. Defensive: CLE 73.9%, SA 75.8%
Context
Tempo
About 105 possessions: CLE plays 106.2 a game (3rd fastest), SA 104.3 (11th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Recent form
Last 5: CLE 2-3 ATS, margin +7.6; SA 2-3 ATS, margin +11.0
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: CLE 100%, SA 100%. Transfers in: CLE 0, SA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelSA -6.4
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model230.1
Model edge—
Projected score
CLE 111.9 · SA 118.3
Win probability
SA 68%
1st half
Spread
SA -3.5
Total
115.2
Projected score
CLE 55.9 · SA 59.3
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLElast 6 | 4-2 67% | 2-4 33% | 3-3 50% |
| SAlast 6 | 4-2 67% | 2-4 33% | 2-4 33% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22
CLE 9–1 SACLE leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · CLE has won the last 7 meetings · CLE 5-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2025-26 | CLE 113 @ SA 101 | SA -3.5 | CLE W |
| Dec 5, 2025-26 | SA 117 @ CLE 130 | CLE -5.5 | CLE W |
| Apr 4, 2024-25 | CLE 114 @ SA 113 | SA +12.5 | SA W |
| Mar 27, 2024-25 | SA 116 @ CLE 124 | CLE -13.5 | SA W |
| Feb 3, 2023-24 | CLE 117 @ SA 101 | SA +10.5 | CLE W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Cavaliers
6 games played
Straight up
4-2
67% wins
Against the spread
2-4
33% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-3
50% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
22
@
PHI
PHIL 106-114
−5.5
24
vs
BKN
BKNW 125-121
−7.5
26
vs
MIN
MINW 127-125
−1.5
28
vs
WSH
WSHW 121-111
+0.5
29
@
ATL
ATLL 111-114
−1.5
31
@
MIL
MILW 136-111
+16.5
covered 2didn’t cover 4avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
22
@PHI
PHIL 106-114
−17.5
24
vsBKN
BKNW 125-121
+17.5
26
vsMIN
MINW 127-125
+17.5
28
vsWSH
WSHW 121-111
−8.5
29
@ATL
ATLL 111-114
−12.5
31
@MIL
MILW 136-111
+12.5
over 3under 3avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Spurs
6 games played
Straight up
4-2
67% wins
Against the spread
2-4
33% covers · avg −3.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
20
vs
OKC
OKCL 104-116
−10.5
23
vs
HOU
HOUL 110-114
−8.5
24
@
DAL
DALW 122-106
+1.5
27
vs
SAC
SACW 130-103
+7.5
28
@
UTAH
UTAHW 117-111
−7.5
31
vsMIN
MINW 121-111
−2.5
covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
20
vsOKC
OKCL 104-116
−9.5
23
vsHOU
HOUL 110-114
−0.5
24
@DAL
DALW 122-106
−1.5
27
vsSAC
SACW 130-103
+0.5
28
@UTAH
UTAHW 117-111
−4.5
31
vsMIN
MINW 121-111
+1.5
over 2under 4avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Spurs has the better starters
Position by position: Cavaliers 1, Spurs 2, even 2
CavaliersBetterSpurs
G J. Harden16.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 6.3 ast
Score 53
→SABig
G D. Harper18.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 4.8 ast
Score 98
G D. Mitchell22.7 pts · 5.3 reb · 4.5 ast
Score 86
←CLESmall
G D. Vassell12 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.5 ast
Score 53
G S. Merrill8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2.3 ast
Score 90
=Even
G D. Fox16.5 pts · 4.8 reb · 7 ast
Score 84
C E. Mobley19.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 3.5 ast
Score 30
→SABig
G S. Castle14.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 5.2 ast
Score 69
C J. Allen15.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 1.5 ast
Score 100
=Even
F V. Wembanyama28 pts · 10.7 reb · 3 ast
Score 98
CavaliersBetterSpurs
CLE offense2nd of 30 · +4.0
←CLESmall
SA defense7th of 30 · +3.7
CLE defense20th of 30 · -1.2
→SABig
SA offense5th of 30 · +2.9
Backcourt+25.3 · 3 players
→SABig
Backcourt+42.2 · 4 players
Frontcourt+17.9 · 2 players
=Even
Frontcourt+17.3 · 1 player
Bench+4.1 · 5 players
→SABig
Bench+19.9 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestCLE betterSA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
CavaliersGuards
J. Harden34 minD. Mitchell33 minS. Merrill24 minM. Thomas21 minT. Proctor12 minC. Porter8 min
Forwards
M. Hezonja18 minT. Enaruna10 minR. Minix7 min
Centers
E. Mobley33 minJ. Allen28 minT. Bryant11 minE. UdehNew
Out
P. WatsonDay-To-DayJ. TysonOut
SpursGuards
D. Harper34 minD. Vassell33 minD. Fox32 minS. Castle29 minJ. McLaughlin6 minJ. Gillespie2 min
Forwards
V. Wembanyama33 minJ. Champagnie28 minK. Johnson22 minC. Bryant9 minH. Barnes8 minD. Jones Garcia6 min
Centers
L. Kornet15 minT. Reed4 min
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
CLE121.0 #2SA117.3 #12Points per possession
CLE1.14 #7SA1.12 #10Pace (possessions)
CLE106.2 #3SA104.3 #11Shooting
Effective FG%
CLE55.3 #7SA53.3 #163-point %
CLE37.0 #8SA34.9 #173-point attempt rate
CLE43.6 #12SA39.0 #24Free throw rate
CLE28.9 #13SA24.5 #24Possessions
Turnover rate
CLE14.2 #6SA13.1 #2Offensive rebound rate
CLE26.7 #20SA27.2 #16Assists per game
CLE28.7 #4SA27.5 #9Defense
Points allowed
CLE116.0 #20SA110.2 #12Points allowed per possession
CLE1.09 #14SA1.06 #6Opponent effective FG%
CLE52.5 #12SA52.1 #11Opponent 3-point %
CLE33.7 #11SA37.3 #23Turnovers forced
CLE14.1 #25SA15.7 #14Defensive rebound rate
CLE73.9 #11SA75.8 #7Steals per game
CLE7.8 #22SA9.2 #10Blocks per game
CLE6.3 #6SA7.0 #1| CLE | SA | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 121.0 #2 | Points per game | 117.3 #12 |
| 1.14 #7 | Points per possession | 1.12 #10 |
| 106.2 #3 | Pace (possessions) | 104.3 #11 |
| Shooting | ||
| 55.3 #7 | Effective FG% | 53.3 #16 |
| 37.0 #8 | 3-point % | 34.9 #17 |
| 43.6 #12 | 3-point attempt rate | 39.0 #24 |
| 28.9 #13 | Free throw rate | 24.5 #24 |
| Possessions | ||
| 14.2 #6 | Turnover rate | 13.1 #2 |
| 26.7 #20 | Offensive rebound rate | 27.2 #16 |
| 28.7 #4 | Assists per game | 27.5 #9 |
| Defense | ||
| 116.0 #20 | Points allowed | 110.2 #12 |
| 1.09 #14 | Points allowed per possession | 1.06 #6 |
| 52.5 #12 | Opponent effective FG% | 52.1 #11 |
| 33.7 #11 | Opponent 3-point % | 37.3 #23 |
| 14.1 #25 | Turnovers forced | 15.7 #14 |
| 73.9 #11 | Defensive rebound rate | 75.8 #7 |
| 7.8 #22 | Steals per game | 9.2 #10 |
| 6.3 #6 | Blocks per game | 7.0 #1 |
Cavaliers
4-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- W@ Bucks136–111
- L@ Hawks111–114
- Wvs Wizards121–111
- Wvs Timberwolves127–125
- Wvs Nets125–121
A week or more of rest.
Spurs
4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Timberwolves121–111
- W@ Jazz117–111
- Wvs Kings130–103
- W@ Mavericks122–106
- Lvs Rockets110–114
A week or more of rest.