Brooklyn Nets at Toronto Raptors: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Apr 7, 7:30 PM ETScotiabank Arena · at Raptors · Conference game

#27BKNNets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Nets and Raptors
BKN	This season	TOR
1-5	Record	3-3
3-3	ATS	3-3
3-3	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TOR 119–104 · win probability TOR 85%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 222.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TOR has more of the edges

BKN 2, TOR 6 · 2026-27 so far

TORBig

BKN offense vs TOR defense

Offense 29th of 30 against a defense 9th, on the model’s ratings

TORBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BKN 18.2%, TOR 13.5%. Forced: BKN 15.9%, TOR 20.8%

TORSmall

TOR offense vs BKN defense

Offense 14th of 30 against a defense 22nd, on the model’s ratings

BKNSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: BKN 32.9, TOR 27.7. Allowed: BKN 33.5, TOR 41.5

TORSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: BKN 50.7 and allows 55.3; TOR 51.0 and allows 53.4

BKNSmall

Three-pointers

BKN hits 35.1% and allows 35.8%; TOR hits 32.0% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 48.0% and 38.1% of their shots

TORSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BKN 25.4%, TOR 32.6%. Defensive: BKN 77.8%, TOR 73.4%

TORSmall

Home court

TOR at home. This season: TOR 2-1 at home, BKN 1-2 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: BKN 3-2 ATS, margin -8.0; TOR 2-3 ATS, margin +0.8

Context

Schedule so far

BKN has played the 19th-hardest schedule, TOR the 21st. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 105 possessions: BKN plays 105.1 a game (10th fastest), TOR 105.5 (8th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BKN 100%, TOR 100%. Transfers in: BKN 0, TOR 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BKN WLWLW	3-3	50%	3-0	—
TOR WLWLL	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: BKN away; TOR home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BKN OOOUU	3-3	50%	1-5
TOR UUOOO	3-3	50%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BKNlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
TORlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Nets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 9	@ CHA	L103–110LU
Apr 11	vs TOR	L101–136LO

Raptors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 9	@ ORL	L114–121LO
Apr 11	@ BKN	W136–101WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 20 since 2021-22

BKN 11–9 TORBKN leads · 20 games since 2021-22 · BKN 11-9 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 12, 2025-26	BKN 101 @ TOR 136	TOR -23.5	TOR W
Dec 21, 2025-26	TOR 81 @ BKN 96	BKN +3.5	BKN W
Nov 23, 2025-26	BKN 109 @ TOR 119	TOR -11.5	BKN W
Nov 11, 2025-26	TOR 119 @ BKN 109	BKN +9.5	TOR W
Apr 6, 2024-25	TOR 120 @ BKN 109	BKN +2.5	TOR W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Nets

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHA	L 103-110	+1.5	L −5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 24	@CLE	L 121-125	+11.5	W +7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 25	vsIND	L 109-136	+5.5	L −21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 27	@BOS	L 124-125	+13.5	W +12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsDET	L 94-110	+8.5	L −7.5	222.5	U 204
Nov 1	@IND	W 98-90	+3.5	W +11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−5.5

CLE

L 121-125

+7.5

IND

L 109-136

−21.5

BOS

L 124-125

+12.5

DET

L 94-110

−7.5

IND

W 98-90

+11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−7.5

CLE

L 121-125

+17.5

IND

L 109-136

+13.5

BOS

L 124-125

+25.5

DET

L 94-110

−18.5

IND

W 98-90

−42.5

over 3under 3avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Raptors

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHI	W 135-92	-10.5	W +32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@WSH	W 112-102	-9.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 25	@MIN	L 94-117	+3.5	L −19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 28	vsORL	W 129-99	-5.5	W +24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	vsORL	L 114-121	-5.5	L −12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	@LAL	L 125-131	+3.5	L −2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

+32.5

WSH

W 112-102

+0.5

MIN

L 94-117

−19.5

ORL

W 129-99

+24.5

ORL

L 114-121

−12.5

LAL

L 125-131

−2.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

−10.5

WSH

W 112-102

−22.5

MIN

L 94-117

−17.5

ORL

W 129-99

+3.5

ORL

L 114-121

+8.5

LAL

L 125-131

+31.5

over 3under 3avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Raptors has the better starters

Position by position: Nets 0, Raptors 3, even 2

NetsBetterRaptors

G K. Ellis5 pts · 2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 21

Even

G I. Quickley16.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.2 ast Score 33

G N. Traore10.5 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 1

TORBig

G J. Walter12.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 64

F J. Randle20.8 pts · 7.2 reb · 5.3 ast Score 39

TORSmall

F S. Barnes24.8 pts · 6.7 reb · 4.5 ast Score 68

F M. Porter21.2 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 91

Even

F R. Barrett19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 88

C D. Sharpe8 pts · 7.7 reb · 1.7 ast Score 6

TORBig

F T. Jackson-Davis3.8 pts · 3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 52

NetsBetterRaptors

BKN offense29th of 30 · -5.5

TORBig

TOR defense9th of 30 · +3.1

BKN defense22nd of 30 · -1.7

TORSmall

TOR offense14th of 30 · +0.9

Backcourt-12.0 · 2 players

TORBig

Backcourt+4.4 · 2 players

Frontcourt+7.8 · 3 players

TORBig

Frontcourt+19.0 · 3 players

Bench-17.9 · 5 players

TORBig

Bench+2.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestBKN betterTOR betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Nets

Guards

K. Ellis24 minN. Traore21 minT. Mann24 minD. Powell21 minB. Saraf21 min

Forwards

J. Randle34 minM. Porter32 minC. Johnson22 minN. Clowney22 minD. Wolf21 minJ. Minott11 min

Centers

D. Sharpe23 minM. Wagner19 min

Out

M. BrownDay-To-DayE. DeminOut

Raptors

Guards

I. Quickley31 minJ. Walter29 minJ. Shead22 minA. Martin7 minJ. Bradley4 min

Forwards

S. Barnes33 minR. Barrett32 minT. Jackson-Davis8 minC. Murray-Boyles19 minK. Anderson18 minJ. Battle15 min

Out

J. PoeltlDay-To-DayK. LeonardOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BKN108.2 #25

TOR118.2 #10

Points per possession

BKN1.03 #29

TOR1.11 #13

Pace (possessions)

BKN105.1 #10

TOR105.5 #8

Shooting

Effective FG%

BKN50.7 #26

TOR51.0 #22

3-point %

BKN35.1 #15

TOR32.0 #24

3-point attempt rate

BKN48.0 #3

TOR38.1 #25

Free throw rate

BKN32.9 #6

TOR27.7 #18

Possessions

Turnover rate

BKN18.2 #27

TOR13.5 #3

Offensive rebound rate

BKN25.4 #23

TOR32.6 #2

Assists per game

BKN22.8 #28

TOR29.2 #2

Defense

Points allowed

BKN116.0 #21

TOR110.3 #13

Points allowed per possession

BKN1.11 #18

TOR1.05 #5

Opponent effective FG%

BKN55.3 #23

TOR53.4 #16

Opponent 3-point %

BKN35.8 #19

TOR36.7 #21

Turnovers forced

BKN15.9 #12

TOR20.8 #1

Defensive rebound rate

BKN77.8 #2

TOR73.4 #13

Steals per game

BKN9.0 #14

TOR12.7 #2

Blocks per game

BKN4.7 #17

TOR4.3 #19

BKN		TOR
Scoring
108.2 #25	Points per game	118.2 #10
1.03 #29	Points per possession	1.11 #13
105.1 #10	Pace (possessions)	105.5 #8
Shooting
50.7 #26	Effective FG%	51.0 #22
35.1 #15	3-point %	32.0 #24
48.0 #3	3-point attempt rate	38.1 #25
32.9 #6	Free throw rate	27.7 #18
Possessions
18.2 #27	Turnover rate	13.5 #3
25.4 #23	Offensive rebound rate	32.6 #2
22.8 #28	Assists per game	29.2 #2
Defense
116.0 #21	Points allowed	110.3 #13
1.11 #18	Points allowed per possession	1.05 #5
55.3 #23	Opponent effective FG%	53.4 #16
35.8 #19	Opponent 3-point %	36.7 #21
15.9 #12	Turnovers forced	20.8 #1
77.8 #2	Defensive rebound rate	73.4 #13
9.0 #14	Steals per game	12.7 #2
4.7 #17	Blocks per game	4.3 #19

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Nets

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Pacers98–90
Lvs Pistons94–110
L@ Celtics124–125
Lvs Pacers109–136
L@ Cavaliers121–125

A week or more of rest.

Raptors

3-3 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Lakers125–131
Lvs Magic114–121
Wvs Magic129–99
L@ Timberwolves94–117
W@ Wizards112–102

A week or more of rest.

Nets @ Raptors

What could decide it: TOR has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Nets

Raptors

Raptors has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Nets

Raptors