Toronto Raptors at Orlando Magic: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Apr 9, 7:00 PM ETKia Center · at Magic · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Raptors and Magic
TOR	This season	ORL
3-3	Record	2-4
3-3	ATS	2-4
3-3	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TOR 114–112 · win probability TOR 57%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 225.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ORL has more of the edges

TOR 3, ORL 4 · 2026-27 so far

TORBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: TOR 13.5%, ORL 17.0%. Forced: TOR 20.8%, ORL 13.6%

Context

Schedule so far

TOR has played the 21st-hardest schedule, ORL the 1st. A record against a soft schedule means less

TORBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: TOR 32.6%, ORL 23.4%. Defensive: TOR 73.4%, ORL 68.9%

TORBig

ORL offense vs TOR defense

Offense 21st of 30 against a defense 9th, on the model’s ratings

ORLBig

Three-pointers

TOR hits 32.0% and allows 36.7%; ORL hits 35.4% and allows 34.6%. Threes are 38.1% and 46.5% of their shots

ORLBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: TOR 27.7, ORL 31.7. Allowed: TOR 41.5, ORL 29.8

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: TOR plays 105.5 a game (8th fastest), ORL 101.9 (22nd). Faster games mean more points

ORLSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: TOR 51.0 and allows 53.4; ORL 53.4 and allows 53.0

ORLSmall

Home court

ORL at home. This season: ORL 0-3 at home, TOR 1-2 away

Even

TOR offense vs ORL defense

Offense 14th of 30 against a defense 15th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Recent form

Last 5: TOR 2-3 ATS, margin +0.8; ORL 2-3 ATS, margin -9.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: TOR 100%, ORL 100%. Transfers in: TOR 0, ORL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TOR WLWLL	3-3	50%	1-2	—
ORL LWLWL	2-4	33%	0-3	—

Venue/role: TOR away; ORL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
TOR UUOOO	3-3	50%	3-3
ORL UUOOU	3-3	50%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TORlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
ORLlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Raptors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 11	@ BKN	W136–101WO

Magic

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 11	@ MIA	W121–117WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 19 since 2021-22

TOR 10–9 ORLTOR leads · 19 games since 2021-22 · TOR 9-10 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 30, 2026-27	ORL 121 @ TOR 114	TOR -5.5	ORL W
Oct 28, 2026-27	ORL 99 @ TOR 129	TOR -5.5	TOR W
Mar 29, 2025-26	ORL 87 @ TOR 139	TOR -1.5	TOR W
Jan 30, 2025-26	TOR 120 @ ORL 130	ORL -2.5	ORL W
Dec 29, 2025-26	ORL 106 @ TOR 107	TOR +1.5	TOR W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Raptors

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHI	W 135-92	-10.5	W +32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@WSH	W 112-102	-9.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 25	@MIN	L 94-117	+3.5	L −19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 28	vsORL	W 129-99	-5.5	W +24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	vsORL	L 114-121	-5.5	L −12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	@LAL	L 125-131	+3.5	L −2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

+32.5

WSH

W 112-102

+0.5

MIN

L 94-117

−19.5

ORL

W 129-99

+24.5

ORL

L 114-121

−12.5

LAL

L 125-131

−2.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

−10.5

WSH

W 112-102

−22.5

MIN

L 94-117

−17.5

ORL

W 129-99

+3.5

ORL

L 114-121

+8.5

LAL

L 125-131

+31.5

over 3under 3avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Magic

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −5.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsATL	L 125-132	-2.5	L −9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	vsMIN	L 93-115	-1.5	L −23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	@NY	W 111-102	+6.5	W +15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 28	@TOR	L 99-129	+5.5	L −24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	@TOR	W 121-114	+5.5	W +12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	vsBOS	L 97-108	+6.5	L −4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

−9.5

MIN

L 93-115

−23.5

W 111-102

+15.5

TOR

L 99-129

−24.5

TOR

W 121-114

+12.5

BOS

L 97-108

−4.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

+23.5

MIN

L 93-115

−26.5

W 111-102

−11.5

TOR

L 99-129

+3.5

TOR

W 121-114

+8.5

BOS

L 97-108

−16.5

over 3under 3avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Raptors has the better starters

Position by position: Raptors 3, Magic 2, even 0

RaptorsBetterMagic

G I. Quickley16.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.2 ast Score 33

ORLSmall

G D. Bane17.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 62

G J. Walter12.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 64

TORBig

G J. Richardson5.3 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast Score 3

F S. Barnes24.8 pts · 6.7 reb · 4.5 ast Score 68

ORLSmall

F F. Wagner19.7 pts · 6.7 reb · 7.8 ast Score 90

F R. Barrett19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 88

TORBig

F T. da Silva14.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 35

F T. Jackson-Davis3.8 pts · 3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 52

TORSmall

C W. Carter13.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 28

RaptorsBetterMagic

TOR offense14th of 30 · +0.9

Even

ORL defense15th of 30 · -0.1

TOR defense9th of 30 · +3.1

TORBig

ORL offense21st of 30 · -1.5

Backcourt+4.4 · 2 players

TORBig

Backcourt-2.5 · 2 players

Frontcourt+19.0 · 3 players

TORBig

Frontcourt+14.7 · 3 players

Bench+2.4 · 5 players

TORBig

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestTOR betterORL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Raptors

Guards

I. Quickley31 minJ. Walter29 minJ. Shead22 minA. Martin7 minJ. Bradley4 min

Forwards

S. Barnes33 minR. Barrett32 minT. Jackson-Davis8 minC. Murray-Boyles19 minK. Anderson18 minJ. Battle15 min

Out

J. PoeltlDay-To-DayK. LeonardOut

Magic

Guards

D. Bane35 minJ. Richardson20 minJ. Carter18 minA. Morales6 min

Forwards

F. Wagner35 minT. da Silva29 minJ. Cain15 min

Centers

W. Carter32 minG. Bitadze9 minN. Vucevic9 minC. Castleton5 min

Out

J. SuggsOutP. BancheroOutA. BlackOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

TOR118.2 #10

ORL107.7 #26

Points per possession

TOR1.11 #13

ORL1.07 #21

Pace (possessions)

TOR105.5 #8

ORL101.9 #22

Shooting

Effective FG%

TOR51.0 #22

ORL53.4 #15

3-point %

TOR32.0 #24

ORL35.4 #11

3-point attempt rate

TOR38.1 #25

ORL46.5 #6

Free throw rate

TOR27.7 #18

ORL31.7 #9

Possessions

Turnover rate

TOR13.5 #3

ORL17.0 #24

Offensive rebound rate

TOR32.6 #2

ORL23.4 #26

Assists per game

TOR29.2 #2

ORL26.3 #16

Defense

Points allowed

TOR110.3 #13

ORL116.7 #22

Points allowed per possession

TOR1.05 #5

ORL1.13 #24

Opponent effective FG%

TOR53.4 #16

ORL53.0 #13

Opponent 3-point %

TOR36.7 #21

ORL34.6 #13

Turnovers forced

TOR20.8 #1

ORL13.6 #26

Defensive rebound rate

TOR73.4 #13

ORL68.9 #26

Steals per game

TOR12.7 #2

ORL7.0 #26

Blocks per game

TOR4.3 #19

ORL4.2 #23

TOR		ORL
Scoring
118.2 #10	Points per game	107.7 #26
1.11 #13	Points per possession	1.07 #21
105.5 #8	Pace (possessions)	101.9 #22
Shooting
51.0 #22	Effective FG%	53.4 #15
32.0 #24	3-point %	35.4 #11
38.1 #25	3-point attempt rate	46.5 #6
27.7 #18	Free throw rate	31.7 #9
Possessions
13.5 #3	Turnover rate	17.0 #24
32.6 #2	Offensive rebound rate	23.4 #26
29.2 #2	Assists per game	26.3 #16
Defense
110.3 #13	Points allowed	116.7 #22
1.05 #5	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #24
53.4 #16	Opponent effective FG%	53.0 #13
36.7 #21	Opponent 3-point %	34.6 #13
20.8 #1	Turnovers forced	13.6 #26
73.4 #13	Defensive rebound rate	68.9 #26
12.7 #2	Steals per game	7.0 #26
4.3 #19	Blocks per game	4.2 #23

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Raptors

3-3 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Lakers125–131
Lvs Magic114–121
Wvs Magic129–99
L@ Timberwolves94–117
W@ Wizards112–102

A week or more of rest.

Magic

2-4 overall · 2-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Celtics97–108
W@ Raptors121–114
L@ Raptors99–129
W@ Knicks111–102
Lvs Timberwolves93–115

A week or more of rest.

Raptors @ Magic

What could decide it: ORL has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Raptors

Magic

Raptors has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Raptors

Magic