Boston Celtics at Orlando Magic: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Apr 7, 7:00 PM ETKia Center · at Magic · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Celtics and Magic
BOS	This season	ORL
5-1	Record	2-4
3-3	ATS	2-4
2-4	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BOS 114–108 · win probability BOS 66%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 222.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

BOS 4, ORL 1 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

BOS has played the 25th-hardest schedule, ORL the 1st. A record against a soft schedule means less

BOSBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BOS 14.9%, ORL 17.0%. Forced: BOS 17.8%, ORL 13.6%

BOSBig

ORL offense vs BOS defense

Offense 21st of 30 against a defense 5th, on the model’s ratings

BOSSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BOS 28.3%, ORL 23.4%. Defensive: BOS 68.4%, ORL 68.9%

BOSSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: BOS 55.0 and allows 51.3; ORL 53.4 and allows 53.0

ORLSmall

Home court

ORL at home. This season: ORL 0-3 at home, BOS 1-1 away

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: BOS plays 103.0 a game (16th fastest), ORL 101.9 (22nd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Recent form

Last 5: BOS 3-2 ATS, margin +13.0; ORL 2-3 ATS, margin -9.4

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: BOS 32.3, ORL 31.7. Allowed: BOS 31.7, ORL 29.8

Even

Three-pointers

BOS hits 35.5% and allows 33.8%; ORL hits 35.4% and allows 34.6%. Threes are 45.9% and 46.5% of their shots

Even

BOS offense vs ORL defense

Offense 15th of 30 against a defense 15th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BOS 100%, ORL 100%. Transfers in: BOS 0, ORL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BOS WWLLW	3-3	50%	1-1	—
ORL LWLWL	2-4	33%	0-3	—

Venue/role: BOS away; ORL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BOS UUOUU	2-4	33%	5-1
ORL UUOOU	3-3	50%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BOSlast 6	5-1 83%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%
ORLlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Celtics

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 9	@ ATL	L102–112LU
Apr 11	vs MIL	W133–101WO

Magic

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 9	vs TOR	W121–114WO
Apr 11	@ MIA	W121–117WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 23 since 2021-22

BOS 15–8 ORLBOS leads · 23 games since 2021-22 · BOS has won the last 4 meetings · BOS 12-11 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 1, 2026-27	BOS 108 @ ORL 97	ORL +6.5	BOS W
Apr 12, 2025-26	ORL 108 @ BOS 113	BOS +12.5	BOS W
Nov 23, 2025-26	ORL 129 @ BOS 138	BOS -4.5	BOS W
Nov 9, 2025-26	BOS 111 @ ORL 107	ORL -3.5	BOS W
Nov 7, 2025-26	BOS 110 @ ORL 123	ORL -3.5	ORL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Celtics

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@DET	L 113-121	-1.5	L −9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	vsNY	W 107-103	-2.5	W +1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 26	vsCHI	W 134-99	-14.5	W +20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 27	vsBKN	W 125-124	-13.5	L −12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsCHI	W 125-111	-14.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 236
Nov 1	@ORL	W 108-97	-6.5	W +4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DET

L 113-121

−9.5

W 107-103

+1.5

CHI

W 134-99

+20.5

BKN

W 125-124

−12.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

+4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DET

L 113-121

+13.5

W 107-103

−10.5

CHI

W 134-99

−0.5

BKN

W 125-124

+25.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

−16.5

over 2under 4avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Magic

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −5.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsATL	L 125-132	-2.5	L −9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	vsMIN	L 93-115	-1.5	L −23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	@NY	W 111-102	+6.5	W +15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 28	@TOR	L 99-129	+5.5	L −24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	@TOR	W 121-114	+5.5	W +12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	vsBOS	L 97-108	+6.5	L −4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

−9.5

MIN

L 93-115

−23.5

W 111-102

+15.5

TOR

L 99-129

−24.5

TOR

W 121-114

+12.5

BOS

L 97-108

−4.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

+23.5

MIN

L 93-115

−26.5

W 111-102

−11.5

TOR

L 99-129

+3.5

TOR

W 121-114

+8.5

BOS

L 97-108

−16.5

over 3under 3avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Celtics has the better starters

Position by position: Celtics 4, Magic 0, even 1

CelticsBetterMagic

G D. White11.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 87

BOSSmall

G D. Bane17.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 62

G J. Walsh4.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 1 ast Score 74

BOSBig

G J. Richardson5.3 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast Score 3

F J. Tatum28.3 pts · 6 reb · 7.7 ast Score 86

Even

F F. Wagner19.7 pts · 6.7 reb · 7.8 ast Score 90

F P. George20.7 pts · 6 reb · 5 ast Score 66

BOSSmall

F T. da Silva14.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 35

C N. Queta8.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 62

BOSSmall

C W. Carter13.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 28

CelticsBetterMagic

BOS offense15th of 30 · +0.8

Even

ORL defense15th of 30 · -0.1

BOS defense5th of 30 · +4.6

BOSBig

ORL offense21st of 30 · -1.5

Backcourt+15.6 · 2 players

BOSBig

Backcourt-2.5 · 2 players

Frontcourt+21.5 · 3 players

BOSBig

Frontcourt+14.7 · 3 players

Bench+32.1 · 5 players

BOSBig

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestBOS betterORL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Celtics

Guards

D. White30 minJ. Walsh17 minP. Pritchard28 minB. Scheierman19 minM. Conley18 minH. Gonzalez12 min

Forwards

J. Tatum36 minP. George31 minS. Hauser20 minA. Williams7 minC. Cenac4 min

Centers

N. Queta21 minL. Garza11 min

Out

M. RobinsonDay-To-Day

Magic

Guards

D. Bane35 minJ. Richardson20 minJ. Carter18 minA. Morales6 min

Forwards

F. Wagner35 minT. da Silva29 minJ. Cain15 min

Centers

W. Carter32 minG. Bitadze9 minN. Vucevic9 minC. Castleton5 min

Out

J. SuggsOutP. BancheroOutA. BlackOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BOS118.7 #8

ORL107.7 #26

Points per possession

BOS1.15 #6

ORL1.07 #21

Pace (possessions)

BOS103.0 #16

ORL101.9 #22

Shooting

Effective FG%

BOS55.0 #10

ORL53.4 #15

3-point %

BOS35.5 #10

ORL35.4 #11

3-point attempt rate

BOS45.9 #7

ORL46.5 #6

Free throw rate

BOS32.3 #7

ORL31.7 #9

Possessions

Turnover rate

BOS14.9 #11

ORL17.0 #24

Offensive rebound rate

BOS28.3 #12

ORL23.4 #26

Assists per game

BOS28.0 #6

ORL26.3 #16

Defense

Points allowed

BOS109.2 #9

ORL116.7 #22

Points allowed per possession

BOS1.06 #9

ORL1.13 #24

Opponent effective FG%

BOS51.3 #7

ORL53.0 #13

Opponent 3-point %

BOS33.8 #12

ORL34.6 #13

Turnovers forced

BOS17.8 #3

ORL13.6 #26

Defensive rebound rate

BOS68.4 #27

ORL68.9 #26

Steals per game

BOS9.2 #9

ORL7.0 #26

Blocks per game

BOS4.0 #25

ORL4.2 #23

BOS		ORL
Scoring
118.7 #8	Points per game	107.7 #26
1.15 #6	Points per possession	1.07 #21
103.0 #16	Pace (possessions)	101.9 #22
Shooting
55.0 #10	Effective FG%	53.4 #15
35.5 #10	3-point %	35.4 #11
45.9 #7	3-point attempt rate	46.5 #6
32.3 #7	Free throw rate	31.7 #9
Possessions
14.9 #11	Turnover rate	17.0 #24
28.3 #12	Offensive rebound rate	23.4 #26
28.0 #6	Assists per game	26.3 #16
Defense
109.2 #9	Points allowed	116.7 #22
1.06 #9	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #24
51.3 #7	Opponent effective FG%	53.0 #13
33.8 #12	Opponent 3-point %	34.6 #13
17.8 #3	Turnovers forced	13.6 #26
68.4 #27	Defensive rebound rate	68.9 #26
9.2 #9	Steals per game	7.0 #26
4.0 #25	Blocks per game	4.2 #23

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Celtics

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Magic108–97
Wvs Bulls125–111
Wvs Nets125–124
Wvs Bulls134–99
Wvs Knicks107–103

A week or more of rest.

Magic

2-4 overall · 2-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Celtics97–108
W@ Raptors121–114
L@ Raptors99–129
W@ Knicks111–102
Lvs Timberwolves93–115

A week or more of rest.

Celtics @ Magic

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Celtics

Magic

Celtics has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Celtics

Magic