Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Apr 11, 6:00 PM ETTD Garden · at Celtics · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Bucks and Celtics
MIL	This season	BOS
1-5	Record	5-1
2-4	ATS	3-3
5-1	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BOS 122–104 · win probability BOS 89%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 226.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

MIL 1, BOS 7 · 2026-27 so far

BOSBig

MIL offense vs BOS defense

Offense 26th of 30 against a defense 5th, on the model’s ratings

BOSBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MIL 15.8%, BOS 14.9%. Forced: MIL 12.2%, BOS 17.8%

BOSBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: MIL 52.0 and allows 55.4; BOS 55.0 and allows 51.3

BOSBig

BOS offense vs MIL defense

Offense 15th of 30 against a defense 28th, on the model’s ratings

MILBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MIL 29.7%, BOS 28.3%. Defensive: MIL 74.2%, BOS 68.4%

BOSSmall

Three-pointers

MIL hits 33.9% and allows 34.9%; BOS hits 35.5% and allows 33.8%. Threes are 45.9% and 45.9% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 105 possessions: MIL plays 106.2 a game (4th fastest), BOS 103.0 (16th). Faster games mean more points

BOSSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: MIL 23.9, BOS 32.3. Allowed: MIL 29.7, BOS 31.7

BOSSmall

Home court

BOS at home. This season: BOS 4-0 at home, MIL 0-2 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: MIL 2-3 ATS, margin -13.4; BOS 3-2 ATS, margin +13.0

Context

Schedule so far

MIL has played the 23rd-hardest schedule, BOS the 25th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MIL 100%, BOS 100%. Transfers in: MIL 0, BOS 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIL LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-1	—
BOS WWLLW	3-3	50%	2-2	—

Venue/role: MIL away; BOS home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIL OOUOO	5-1	83%	1-5
BOS UUOUU	2-4	33%	5-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MILlast 6	1-5 17%	2-4 33%	5-1 83%
BOSlast 6	5-1 83%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Bucks

No more games listed yet.

Celtics

No more games listed yet.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 25 since 2021-22

MIL 9–16 BOSBOS leads · 25 games since 2021-22 · BOS has won the last 3 meetings · MIL 8-17 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 3, 2025-26	BOS 133 @ MIL 101	MIL +17.5	BOS W
Mar 2, 2025-26	BOS 108 @ MIL 81	MIL +2.5	BOS W
Feb 1, 2025-26	MIL 79 @ BOS 107	BOS -12.5	BOS W
Dec 11, 2025-26	BOS 101 @ MIL 116	MIL +9.5	MIL W
Dec 6, 2024-25	MIL 105 @ BOS 111	BOS -8.5	MIL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bucks

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −7.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

O O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@WSH	L 116-128	+4.5	L −7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsCHI	L 125-132	-1.5	L −8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	@PHI	L 116-127	+12.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 26	vsIND	W 110-102	+3.5	W +11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsHOU	L 100-132	+8.5	L −23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 31	vsCLE	L 111-136	+8.5	L −16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

−7.5

CHI

L 125-132

−8.5

PHI

L 116-127

+1.5

IND

W 110-102

+11.5

HOU

L 100-132

−23.5

CLE

L 111-136

−16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −7.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

+4.5

CHI

L 125-132

+15.5

PHI

L 116-127

+8.5

IND

W 110-102

−27.5

HOU

L 100-132

+5.5

CLE

L 111-136

+12.5

over 5under 1avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Celtics

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@DET	L 113-121	-1.5	L −9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	vsNY	W 107-103	-2.5	W +1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 26	vsCHI	W 134-99	-14.5	W +20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 27	vsBKN	W 125-124	-13.5	L −12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsCHI	W 125-111	-14.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 236
Nov 1	@ORL	W 108-97	-6.5	W +4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DET

L 113-121

−9.5

W 107-103

+1.5

CHI

W 134-99

+20.5

BKN

W 125-124

−12.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

+4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DET

L 113-121

+13.5

W 107-103

−10.5

CHI

W 134-99

−0.5

BKN

W 125-124

+25.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

−16.5

over 2under 4avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Celtics has the better starters

Position by position: Bucks 0, Celtics 4, even 1

BucksBetterCeltics

G T. Herro22 pts · 4.8 reb · 4.2 ast Score 6

BOSBig

G D. White11.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 87

G R. Rollins11.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.7 ast Score 2

BOSBig

G J. Walsh4.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 1 ast Score 74

F J. Jaquez16.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 3 ast Score 51

BOSBig

F J. Tatum28.3 pts · 6 reb · 7.7 ast Score 86

F K. Kuzma11.3 pts · 7.2 reb · 2.8 ast Score 31

BOSBig

F P. George20.7 pts · 6 reb · 5 ast Score 66

C M. Turner7.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 56

Even

C N. Queta8.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 62

BucksBetterCeltics

MIL offense26th of 30 · -2.9

BOSBig

BOS defense5th of 30 · +4.6

MIL defense28th of 30 · -6.0

BOSBig

BOS offense15th of 30 · +0.8

Backcourt-20.2 · 2 players

BOSBig

Backcourt+15.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt+5.0 · 3 players

BOSBig

Frontcourt+21.5 · 3 players

Bench-0.7 · 5 players

BOSBig

Bench+32.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMIL betterBOS betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Bucks

Guards

T. Herro30 minR. Rollins26 minK. Porter33 minK. Jakucionis23 minG. Trent21 minA. Green19 min

Forwards

J. Jaquez28 minK. Kuzma27 minN. Ament16 minO. Dieng12 minB. Markovic5 min

Centers

M. Turner26 minJ. Sims20 minK. Ware20 min

Celtics

Guards

D. White30 minJ. Walsh17 minP. Pritchard28 minB. Scheierman19 minM. Conley18 minH. Gonzalez12 min

Forwards

J. Tatum36 minP. George31 minS. Hauser20 minA. Williams7 minC. Cenac4 min

Centers

N. Queta21 minL. Garza11 min

Out

M. RobinsonDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MIL113.0 #17

BOS118.7 #8

Points per possession

MIL1.07 #20

BOS1.15 #6

Pace (possessions)

MIL106.2 #4

BOS103.0 #16

Shooting

Effective FG%

MIL52.0 #21

BOS55.0 #10

3-point %

MIL33.9 #21

BOS35.5 #10

3-point attempt rate

MIL45.9 #8

BOS45.9 #7

Free throw rate

MIL23.9 #25

BOS32.3 #7

Possessions

Turnover rate

MIL15.8 #18

BOS14.9 #11

Offensive rebound rate

MIL29.7 #8

BOS28.3 #12

Assists per game

MIL26.0 #20

BOS28.0 #6

Defense

Points allowed

MIL126.2 #28

BOS109.2 #9

Points allowed per possession

MIL1.18 #28

BOS1.06 #9

Opponent effective FG%

MIL55.4 #24

BOS51.3 #7

Opponent 3-point %

MIL34.9 #14

BOS33.8 #12

Turnovers forced

MIL12.2 #30

BOS17.8 #3

Defensive rebound rate

MIL74.2 #10

BOS68.4 #27

Steals per game

MIL5.7 #30

BOS9.2 #9

Blocks per game

MIL4.0 #27

BOS4.0 #25

MIL		BOS
Scoring
113.0 #17	Points per game	118.7 #8
1.07 #20	Points per possession	1.15 #6
106.2 #4	Pace (possessions)	103.0 #16
Shooting
52.0 #21	Effective FG%	55.0 #10
33.9 #21	3-point %	35.5 #10
45.9 #8	3-point attempt rate	45.9 #7
23.9 #25	Free throw rate	32.3 #7
Possessions
15.8 #18	Turnover rate	14.9 #11
29.7 #8	Offensive rebound rate	28.3 #12
26.0 #20	Assists per game	28.0 #6
Defense
126.2 #28	Points allowed	109.2 #9
1.18 #28	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #9
55.4 #24	Opponent effective FG%	51.3 #7
34.9 #14	Opponent 3-point %	33.8 #12
12.2 #30	Turnovers forced	17.8 #3
74.2 #10	Defensive rebound rate	68.4 #27
5.7 #30	Steals per game	9.2 #9
4.0 #27	Blocks per game	4.0 #25

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bucks

1-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Cavaliers111–136
Lvs Rockets100–132
Wvs Pacers110–102
L@ 76ers116–127
Lvs Bulls125–132

A week or more of rest.

Celtics

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Magic108–97
Wvs Bulls125–111
Wvs Nets125–124
Wvs Bulls134–99
Wvs Knicks107–103

A week or more of rest.

Bucks @ Celtics

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Bucks

Celtics

Celtics has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Bucks

Celtics