Boston Celtics at Atlanta Hawks: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Apr 9, 7:00 PM ETState Farm Arena · at Hawks · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Celtics and Hawks
BOS	This season	ATL
5-1	Record	3-4
3-3	ATS	3-4
2-4	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BOS 115–111 · win probability BOS 59%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 226.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

BOS 3, ATL 2 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

BOS has played the 25th-hardest schedule, ATL the 9th. A record against a soft schedule means less

BOSBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: BOS 55.0 and allows 51.3; ATL 52.6 and allows 54.5

BOSBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: BOS 32.3, ATL 23.4. Allowed: BOS 31.7, ATL 32.1

BOSSmall

Recent form

Last 5: BOS 3-2 ATS, margin +13.0; ATL 1-4 ATS, margin -9.6

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: BOS plays 103.0 a game (16th fastest), ATL 105.6 (7th). Faster games mean more points

ATLSmall

Home court

ATL at home. This season: ATL 1-2 at home, BOS 1-1 away

ATLSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BOS 14.9%, ATL 13.8%. Forced: BOS 17.8%, ATL 18.3%

Even

Three-pointers

BOS hits 35.5% and allows 33.8%; ATL hits 32.8% and allows 31.9%. Threes are 45.9% and 44.7% of their shots

Even

BOS offense vs ATL defense

Offense 15th of 30 against a defense 18th, on the model’s ratings

Even

ATL offense vs BOS defense

Offense 7th of 30 against a defense 5th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BOS 28.3%, ATL 27.1%. Defensive: BOS 68.4%, ATL 70.9%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BOS 100%, ATL 100%. Transfers in: BOS 0, ATL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BOS WWLLW	3-3	50%	1-1	—
ATL LLLWL	3-4	43%	1-2	—

Venue/role: BOS away; ATL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BOS UUOUU	2-4	33%	5-1
ATL OOOUU	4-3	57%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BOSlast 6	5-1 83%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%
ATLlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Celtics

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 11	vs MIL	W133–101WO

Hawks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 11	@ CLE	W114–111WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 24 since 2021-22

BOS 14–10 ATLBOS leads · 24 games since 2021-22 · BOS 13-11 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 30, 2025-26	BOS 102 @ ATL 112	ATL -2.5	ATL W
Mar 27, 2025-26	ATL 102 @ BOS 109	BOS -4.5	BOS W
Jan 28, 2025-26	ATL 117 @ BOS 106	BOS -5.5	ATL W
Jan 17, 2025-26	BOS 132 @ ATL 106	ATL +3.5	BOS W
Jan 18, 2024-25	ATL 119 @ BOS 115	BOS -9.5	ATL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Celtics

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@DET	L 113-121	-1.5	L −9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	vsNY	W 107-103	-2.5	W +1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 26	vsCHI	W 134-99	-14.5	W +20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 27	vsBKN	W 125-124	-13.5	L −12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsCHI	W 125-111	-14.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 236
Nov 1	@ORL	W 108-97	-6.5	W +4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DET

L 113-121

−9.5

W 107-103

+1.5

CHI

W 134-99

+20.5

BKN

W 125-124

−12.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

+4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DET

L 113-121

+13.5

W 107-103

−10.5

CHI

W 134-99

−0.5

BKN

W 125-124

+25.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

−16.5

over 2under 4avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Hawks

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

O U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@ORL	W 132-125	+2.5	W +9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	@CHA	W 128-81	-2.5	W +44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsHOU	L 114-121	+1.5	L −5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	@HOU	L 110-120	+4.5	L −5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	vsMIA	L 117-129	-2.5	L −14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 29	vsCLE	W 114-111	-1.5	W +1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@NO	L 99-121	-5.5	L −27.5	239.5	U 220

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+9.5

CHA

W 128-81

+44.5

HOU

L 114-121

−5.5

HOU

L 110-120

−5.5

MIA

L 117-129

−14.5

CLE

W 114-111

+1.5

L 99-121

−27.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+23.5

CHA

W 128-81

−17.5

HOU

L 114-121

+7.5

HOU

L 110-120

+1.5

MIA

L 117-129

+2.5

CLE

W 114-111

−12.5

L 99-121

−19.5

over 4under 3avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Celtics has the better starters

Position by position: Celtics 3, Hawks 0, even 2

CelticsBetterHawks

G D. White11.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 87

BOSSmall

G N. Alexander-Walker19.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 67

G J. Walsh4.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 1 ast Score 74

Even

G D. Daniels10.3 pts · 5 reb · 4.1 ast Score 87

F J. Tatum28.3 pts · 6 reb · 7.7 ast Score 86

BOSSmall

G C. McCollum14.4 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.9 ast Score 59

F P. George20.7 pts · 6 reb · 5 ast Score 66

Even

G A. Wiggins14.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 78

C N. Queta8.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 62

BOSSmall

F O. Okongwu11.9 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 30

CelticsBetterHawks

BOS offense15th of 30 · +0.8

Even

ATL defense18th of 30 · -0.6

BOS defense5th of 30 · +4.6

Even

ATL offense7th of 30 · +2.5

Backcourt+15.6 · 2 players

ATLBig

Backcourt+27.7 · 4 players

Frontcourt+21.5 · 3 players

BOSBig

Frontcourt-1.3 · 1 player

Bench+32.1 · 5 players

BOSBig

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestBOS betterATL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Celtics

Guards

D. White30 minJ. Walsh17 minP. Pritchard28 minB. Scheierman19 minM. Conley18 minH. Gonzalez12 min

Forwards

J. Tatum36 minP. George31 minS. Hauser20 minA. Williams7 minC. Cenac4 min

Centers

N. Queta21 minL. Garza11 min

Out

M. RobinsonDay-To-Day

Hawks

Guards

N. Alexander-Walker30 minD. Daniels29 minC. McCollum26 minA. Wiggins26 minL. Dort24 min

Forwards

O. Okongwu28 minC. Kispert18 minD. Finney-Smith16 minA. Newell11 minZ. Ejiofor5 min

Out

J. LandaleOutJ. JohnsonDay-To-DayK. FlemingsSuspension

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BOS118.7 #8

ATL116.3 #13

Points per possession

BOS1.15 #6

ATL1.10 #16

Pace (possessions)

BOS103.0 #16

ATL105.6 #7

Shooting

Effective FG%

BOS55.0 #10

ATL52.6 #19

3-point %

BOS35.5 #10

ATL32.8 #22

3-point attempt rate

BOS45.9 #7

ATL44.7 #11

Free throw rate

BOS32.3 #7

ATL23.4 #26

Possessions

Turnover rate

BOS14.9 #11

ATL13.8 #4

Offensive rebound rate

BOS28.3 #12

ATL27.1 #18

Assists per game

BOS28.0 #6

ATL30.7 #1

Defense

Points allowed

BOS109.2 #9

ATL115.4 #19

Points allowed per possession

BOS1.06 #9

ATL1.10 #17

Opponent effective FG%

BOS51.3 #7

ATL54.5 #22

Opponent 3-point %

BOS33.8 #12

ATL31.9 #7

Turnovers forced

BOS17.8 #3

ATL18.3 #2

Defensive rebound rate

BOS68.4 #27

ATL70.9 #19

Steals per game

BOS9.2 #9

ATL9.4 #8

Blocks per game

BOS4.0 #25

ATL3.7 #29

BOS		ATL
Scoring
118.7 #8	Points per game	116.3 #13
1.15 #6	Points per possession	1.10 #16
103.0 #16	Pace (possessions)	105.6 #7
Shooting
55.0 #10	Effective FG%	52.6 #19
35.5 #10	3-point %	32.8 #22
45.9 #7	3-point attempt rate	44.7 #11
32.3 #7	Free throw rate	23.4 #26
Possessions
14.9 #11	Turnover rate	13.8 #4
28.3 #12	Offensive rebound rate	27.1 #18
28.0 #6	Assists per game	30.7 #1
Defense
109.2 #9	Points allowed	115.4 #19
1.06 #9	Points allowed per possession	1.10 #17
51.3 #7	Opponent effective FG%	54.5 #22
33.8 #12	Opponent 3-point %	31.9 #7
17.8 #3	Turnovers forced	18.3 #2
68.4 #27	Defensive rebound rate	70.9 #19
9.2 #9	Steals per game	9.4 #8
4.0 #25	Blocks per game	3.7 #29

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Celtics

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Magic108–97
Wvs Bulls125–111
Wvs Nets125–124
Wvs Bulls134–99
Wvs Knicks107–103

A week or more of rest.

Hawks

3-4 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Pelicans99–121
Wvs Cavaliers114–111
Lvs Heat117–129
L@ Rockets110–120
Lvs Rockets114–121

A week or more of rest.

Celtics @ Hawks

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Celtics

Hawks

Celtics has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Celtics

Hawks