Atlanta Hawks at Cleveland Cavaliers: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Apr 11, 6:00 PM ETRocket Arena · at Cavaliers · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Hawks and Cavaliers
ATL	This season	CLE
3-4	Record	4-2
3-4	ATS	2-4
4-3	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CLE 120–115 · win probability CLE 64%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 234.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges

ATL 2, CLE 5 · 2026-27 so far

CLEBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: ATL 23.4, CLE 28.9. Allowed: ATL 32.1, CLE 23.2

CLEBig

CLE offense vs ATL defense

Offense 2nd of 30 against a defense 18th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

ATL has played the 9th-hardest schedule, CLE the 24th. A record against a soft schedule means less

ATLBig

ATL offense vs CLE defense

Offense 7th of 30 against a defense 20th, on the model’s ratings

ATLBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ATL 13.8%, CLE 14.2%. Forced: ATL 18.3%, CLE 14.1%

CLEBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: ATL 52.6 and allows 54.5; CLE 55.3 and allows 52.5

CLESmall

Three-pointers

ATL hits 32.8% and allows 31.9%; CLE hits 37.0% and allows 33.7%. Threes are 44.7% and 43.6% of their shots

CLESmall

Home court

CLE at home. This season: CLE 3-0 at home, ATL 2-2 away

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ATL 27.1%, CLE 26.7%. Defensive: ATL 70.9%, CLE 73.9%

Even

Recent form

Last 5: ATL 1-4 ATS, margin -9.6; CLE 2-3 ATS, margin +7.6

Context

Tempo

About 106 possessions: ATL plays 105.6 a game (7th fastest), CLE 106.2 (3rd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ATL 100%, CLE 100%. Transfers in: ATL 0, CLE 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ATL LLLWL	3-4	43%	2-2	—
CLE LLWLW	2-4	33%	1-2	—

Venue/role: ATL away; CLE home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ATL OOOUU	4-3	57%	3-4
CLE OOUUO	3-3	50%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ATLlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	4-3 57%
CLElast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Hawks

No more games listed yet.

Cavaliers

No more games listed yet.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 20 since 2021-22

ATL 12–8 CLEATL leads · 20 games since 2021-22 · ATL has won the last 2 meetings · ATL 11-9 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 29, 2026-27	CLE 111 @ ATL 114	ATL -1.5	ATL W
Apr 10, 2025-26	CLE 102 @ ATL 124	ATL -8.5	ATL W
Apr 8, 2025-26	ATL 116 @ CLE 122	CLE -4.5	CLE W
Nov 28, 2025-26	CLE 123 @ ATL 130	ATL +6.5	ATL W
Nov 2, 2025-26	ATL 109 @ CLE 117	CLE -6.5	CLE W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Hawks

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

O U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@ORL	W 132-125	+2.5	W +9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	@CHA	W 128-81	-2.5	W +44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsHOU	L 114-121	+1.5	L −5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	@HOU	L 110-120	+4.5	L −5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	vsMIA	L 117-129	-2.5	L −14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 29	vsCLE	W 114-111	-1.5	W +1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@NO	L 99-121	-5.5	L −27.5	239.5	U 220

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+9.5

CHA

W 128-81

+44.5

HOU

L 114-121

−5.5

HOU

L 110-120

−5.5

MIA

L 117-129

−14.5

CLE

W 114-111

+1.5

L 99-121

−27.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+23.5

CHA

W 128-81

−17.5

HOU

L 114-121

+7.5

HOU

L 110-120

+1.5

MIA

L 117-129

+2.5

CLE

W 114-111

−12.5

L 99-121

−19.5

over 4under 3avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Cavaliers

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@PHI	L 106-114	+2.5	L −5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsBKN	W 125-121	-11.5	L −7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 26	vsMIN	W 127-125	-3.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsWSH	W 121-111	-9.5	W +0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 29	@ATL	L 111-114	+1.5	L −1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@MIL	W 136-111	-8.5	W +16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−5.5

BKN

W 125-121

−7.5

MIN

W 127-125

−1.5

WSH

W 121-111

+0.5

ATL

L 111-114

−1.5

MIL

W 136-111

+16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−17.5

BKN

W 125-121

+17.5

MIN

W 127-125

+17.5

WSH

W 121-111

−8.5

ATL

L 111-114

−12.5

MIL

W 136-111

+12.5

over 3under 3avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Cavaliers has the better starters

Position by position: Hawks 1, Cavaliers 2, even 2

HawksBetterCavaliers

G N. Alexander-Walker19.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 67

Even

G J. Harden16.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 53

G D. Daniels10.3 pts · 5 reb · 4.1 ast Score 87

Even

G D. Mitchell22.7 pts · 5.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 86

G C. McCollum14.4 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.9 ast Score 59

CLESmall

G S. Merrill8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 90

G A. Wiggins14.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 78

ATLBig

C E. Mobley19.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 30

F O. Okongwu11.9 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 30

CLEBig

C J. Allen15.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 100

HawksBetterCavaliers

ATL offense7th of 30 · +2.5

ATLBig

CLE defense20th of 30 · -1.2

ATL defense18th of 30 · -0.6

CLEBig

CLE offense2nd of 30 · +4.0

Backcourt+27.7 · 4 players

ATLSmall

Backcourt+25.3 · 3 players

Frontcourt-1.3 · 1 player

CLEBig

Frontcourt+17.9 · 2 players

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

CLEBig

Bench+4.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestATL betterCLE betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Hawks

Guards

N. Alexander-Walker30 minD. Daniels29 minC. McCollum26 minA. Wiggins26 minL. Dort24 min

Forwards

O. Okongwu28 minC. Kispert18 minD. Finney-Smith16 minA. Newell11 minZ. Ejiofor5 min

Out

J. LandaleOutJ. JohnsonDay-To-DayK. FlemingsSuspension

Cavaliers

Guards

J. Harden34 minD. Mitchell33 minS. Merrill24 minM. Thomas21 minT. Proctor12 minC. Porter8 min

Forwards

M. Hezonja18 minT. Enaruna10 minR. Minix7 min

Centers

E. Mobley33 minJ. Allen28 minT. Bryant11 minE. UdehNew

Out

P. WatsonDay-To-DayJ. TysonOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ATL116.3 #13

CLE121.0 #2

Points per possession

ATL1.10 #16

CLE1.14 #7

Pace (possessions)

ATL105.6 #7

CLE106.2 #3

Shooting

Effective FG%

ATL52.6 #19

CLE55.3 #7

3-point %

ATL32.8 #22

CLE37.0 #8

3-point attempt rate

ATL44.7 #11

CLE43.6 #12

Free throw rate

ATL23.4 #26

CLE28.9 #13

Possessions

Turnover rate

ATL13.8 #4

CLE14.2 #6

Offensive rebound rate

ATL27.1 #18

CLE26.7 #20

Assists per game

ATL30.7 #1

CLE28.7 #4

Defense

Points allowed

ATL115.4 #19

CLE116.0 #20

Points allowed per possession

ATL1.10 #17

CLE1.09 #14

Opponent effective FG%

ATL54.5 #22

CLE52.5 #12

Opponent 3-point %

ATL31.9 #7

CLE33.7 #11

Turnovers forced

ATL18.3 #2

CLE14.1 #25

Defensive rebound rate

ATL70.9 #19

CLE73.9 #11

Steals per game

ATL9.4 #8

CLE7.8 #22

Blocks per game

ATL3.7 #29

CLE6.3 #6

ATL		CLE
Scoring
116.3 #13	Points per game	121.0 #2
1.10 #16	Points per possession	1.14 #7
105.6 #7	Pace (possessions)	106.2 #3
Shooting
52.6 #19	Effective FG%	55.3 #7
32.8 #22	3-point %	37.0 #8
44.7 #11	3-point attempt rate	43.6 #12
23.4 #26	Free throw rate	28.9 #13
Possessions
13.8 #4	Turnover rate	14.2 #6
27.1 #18	Offensive rebound rate	26.7 #20
30.7 #1	Assists per game	28.7 #4
Defense
115.4 #19	Points allowed	116.0 #20
1.10 #17	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #14
54.5 #22	Opponent effective FG%	52.5 #12
31.9 #7	Opponent 3-point %	33.7 #11
18.3 #2	Turnovers forced	14.1 #25
70.9 #19	Defensive rebound rate	73.9 #11
9.4 #8	Steals per game	7.8 #22
3.7 #29	Blocks per game	6.3 #6

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hawks

3-4 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Pelicans99–121
Wvs Cavaliers114–111
Lvs Heat117–129
L@ Rockets110–120
Lvs Rockets114–121

A week or more of rest.

Cavaliers

4-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Bucks136–111
L@ Hawks111–114
Wvs Wizards121–111
Wvs Timberwolves127–125
Wvs Nets125–121

A week or more of rest.

Hawks @ Cavaliers

What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Hawks

Cavaliers

Cavaliers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Hawks

Cavaliers