Smoothie King Center · at Pelicans
Closing line
ATL -5.5✓ NO covered by 27.5
ATL -5.5✓ NO covered by 27.5Closing total239.5Under by 19.5
| ATL | This season | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 3-3 | Record | 1-4 |
| 3-3 | ATS | 3-2 |
| 4-2 | O/U | 4-1 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: ATL 121–117 NO · ✗ ATL (62%) lost
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Box score
Score by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 18 | 30 | 26 | 25 | 99 |
| NO | 35 | 28 | 29 | 29 | 121 |
1st half: ATL 48, NO 63 (NO by 15). The model had ATL by 2.6 and a total of 119.1 (actual 111).
Team stats
| ATL | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| 35-91 38% | Field goals | 43-76 57% |
| 8-46 17% | 3-pointers | 7-17 41% |
| 21-23 91% | Free throws | 28-35 80% |
| 36 14 off | Rebounds | 49 10 off |
| 20 | Assists | 27 |
| 11 | Steals | 15 |
| 4 | Blocks | 4 |
| 19 | Turnovers | 25 |
| 21 | Fouls | 21 |
| 52 | Points in paint | 66 |
| 18 | Fast-break points | 19 |
Players
| ATL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker G | 29 | 12 | 2 | 1 | -12 |
| Jalen Johnson F | 28 | 13 | 7 | 4 | -20 |
| Onyeka Okongwu F | 28 | 6 | 10 | 1 | -19 |
| Dyson Daniels G | 27 | 8 | 4 | 3 | -4 |
| CJ McCollum G | 24 | 14 | 2 | 2 | -18 |
| Bench | |||||
| Luguentz Dort G | 29 | 11 | 3 | 0 | -15 |
| Kingston Flemings G | 25 | 12 | 2 | 6 | -17 |
| Aaron Wiggins G | 23 | 10 | 2 | 1 | -7 |
| Asa Newell F | 19 | 13 | 4 | 1 | +1 |
| Corey Kispert F | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 |
| Dorian Finney-Smith F | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +4 |
| Jock Landale C | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 |
| NO | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiah Fears G | 31 | 20 | 5 | 7 | +21 |
| Zion Williamson F | 30 | 15 | 6 | 4 | +22 |
| Trey Murphy III F | 29 | 15 | 5 | 5 | +24 |
| Herbert Jones F | 25 | 11 | 3 | 2 | +14 |
| Karlo Matkovic F | 18 | 8 | 10 | 1 | +17 |
| Bench | |||||
| Saddiq Bey G | 26 | 25 | 6 | 1 | +8 |
| Derik Queen C | 23 | 8 | 8 | 4 | +9 |
| Bennedict Mathurin G | 19 | 7 | 1 | 2 | -2 |
| Trendon Watford F | 18 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryce McGowens G | 15 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +5 |
| AJ Johnson G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 |
| Julian Reese F | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -4 |
Did not play: DeAndre Jordan (COACH'S DECISION)
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketATL -5.5
ModelATL -4.3
Model edgeNO +1.2
W NO covered
Total
Market239.5
Model238.5
Model edgeUnder 1.0
W Under
Projected score
ATL 121.4 · NO 117.1
ATL 99 · NO 121
Win probability
ATL 62%
1st half
Spread
ATL -2.6
NO -15.0
Total
119.1
111 points
Projected score
ATL 60.9 · NO 58.3
ATL 48 · NO 63
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenATL -3.5
2 → ATL
CloseATL -5.5
2 pts toward ATL
Total
Open239.5
no move
Close239.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
ATL -198 · NO +164
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ATL -3.5 · closed ATL -5.5 · moved 2 toward ATLmodel ATL -4.5
model ATL -4.5
Opened 239.5 · unchangedmodel 238.5
model 238.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATLlast 6 | 3-3 50% | 3-3 50% | 4-2 67% |
| NOlast 5 | 1-4 20% | 3-2 60% | 4-1 80% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22
ATL 7–3 NOATL leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · ATL has won the last 4 meetings · ATL 6-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2025-26 | NO 100 @ ATL 117 | ATL -10.5 | ATL W |
| Nov 22, 2025-26 | ATL 115 @ NO 98 | NO +9.5 | ATL W |
| Dec 2, 2024-25 | NO 112 @ ATL 124 | ATL -9.5 | ATL W |
| Nov 3, 2024-25 | ATL 126 @ NO 111 | NO +1.5 | ATL W |
| Mar 10, 2023-24 | NO 116 @ ATL 103 | ATL +6.5 | NO W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Hawks
6 games played
Straight up
3-3
50% wins
Against the spread
3-3
50% covers · avg +5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-2
67% overs · avg +0.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@
ORL
ORLW 132-125
+9.5
23
@
CHA
CHAW 128-81
+44.5
24
vs
HOU
HOUL 114-121
−5.5
26
@HOU
HOUL 110-120
−5.5
28
vs
MIA
MIAL 117-129
−14.5
29
vs
CLE
CLEW 114-111
+1.5
covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@ORL
ORLW 132-125
+23.5
23
@CHA
CHAW 128-81
−17.5
24
vsHOU
HOUL 114-121
+7.5
26
@HOU
HOUL 110-120
+1.5
28
vsMIA
MIAL 117-129
+2.5
29
vsCLE
CLEW 114-111
−12.5
over 4under 2avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Pelicans
5 games played
Straight up
1-4
20% wins
Against the spread
3-2
60% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-1
80% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vs
IND
INDL 120-123
−0.5
23
@
UTAH
UTAHL 119-120
+0.5
24
@
DEN
DENL 135-141
+5.5
28
vsDEN
DENL 91-104
−8.5
29
vs
SAC
SACW 132-120
+5.5
covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsIND
INDL 120-123
+4.5
23
@UTAH
UTAHL 119-120
+0.5
24
@DEN
DENL 135-141
+36.5
28
vsDEN
DENL 91-104
−46.5
29
vsSAC
SACW 132-120
+17.5
over 4under 1avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Hawks
3-3 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Cavaliers114–111
- Lvs Heat117–129
- L@ Rockets110–120
- Lvs Rockets114–121
- W@ Hornets128–81
2 days since their last game.
Pelicans
1-4 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Kings132–120
- Lvs Nuggets91–104
- L@ Nuggets135–141
- L@ Jazz119–120
- Lvs Pacers120–123
2 days since their last game.