Brooklyn Nets at Charlotte Hornets: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Apr 9, 7:00 PM ETSpectrum Center · at Hornets · Conference game

#27BKNNets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Nets and Hornets
BKN	This season	CHA
1-5	Record	3-4
3-3	ATS	3-4
3-3	O/U	1-6

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CHA 112–103 · win probability CHA 73%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 214.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BKN has more of the edges

BKN 4, CHA 3 · 2026-27 so far

CHABig

BKN offense vs CHA defense

Offense 29th of 30 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: BKN plays 105.1 a game (10th fastest), CHA 98.3 (30th). Faster games mean more points

BKNBig

Three-pointers

BKN hits 35.1% and allows 35.8%; CHA hits 29.6% and allows 37.5%. Threes are 48.0% and 50.8% of their shots

BKNSmall

CHA offense vs BKN defense

Offense 30th of 30 against a defense 22nd, on the model’s ratings

CHASmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BKN 25.4%, CHA 31.6%. Defensive: BKN 77.8%, CHA 76.6%

BKNSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BKN 18.2%, CHA 18.8%. Forced: BKN 15.9%, CHA 14.5%

BKNSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: BKN 32.9, CHA 18.9. Allowed: BKN 33.5, CHA 28.4

CHASmall

Home court

CHA at home. This season: CHA 2-2 at home, BKN 1-2 away

Context

Schedule so far

BKN has played the 19th-hardest schedule, CHA the 22nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Recent form

Last 5: BKN 3-2 ATS, margin -8.0; CHA 2-3 ATS, margin -3.4

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: BKN 50.7 and allows 55.3; CHA 48.4 and allows 53.1

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BKN 100%, CHA 100%. Transfers in: BKN 0, CHA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BKN WLWLW	3-3	50%	3-0	—
CHA WWLLL	3-4	43%	2-2	—

Venue/role: BKN away; CHA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BKN OOOUU	3-3	50%	1-5
CHA UUUUO	1-6	14%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BKNlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
CHAlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	1-6 14%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Nets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 11	vs TOR	L101–136LO

Hornets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 11	@ PHI	L104–109LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

BKN 10–8 CHABKN leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · CHA has won the last 2 meetings · BKN 8-10 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 21, 2026-27	CHA 110 @ BKN 103	BKN +1.5	CHA W
Mar 31, 2025-26	CHA 117 @ BKN 86	BKN +18.5	CHA W
Dec 1, 2025-26	CHA 103 @ BKN 116	BKN +4.5	BKN W
Oct 22, 2025-26	BKN 117 @ CHA 136	CHA -5.5	CHA W
Mar 8, 2024-25	BKN 102 @ CHA 105	CHA +5.5	CHA W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Nets

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHA	L 103-110	+1.5	L −5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 24	@CLE	L 121-125	+11.5	W +7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 25	vsIND	L 109-136	+5.5	L −21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 27	@BOS	L 124-125	+13.5	W +12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsDET	L 94-110	+8.5	L −7.5	222.5	U 204
Nov 1	@IND	W 98-90	+3.5	W +11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−5.5

CLE

L 121-125

+7.5

IND

L 109-136

−21.5

BOS

L 124-125

+12.5

DET

L 94-110

−7.5

IND

W 98-90

+11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−7.5

CLE

L 121-125

+17.5

IND

L 109-136

+13.5

BOS

L 124-125

+25.5

DET

L 94-110

−18.5

IND

W 98-90

−42.5

over 3under 3avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Hornets

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −6.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-6

14% overs · avg −15.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-614%

U U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@BKN	W 110-103	-1.5	W +5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 23	vsATL	L 81-128	+2.5	L −44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsMIA	W 115-110	+4.5	W +9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsWSH	W 110-103	-2.5	W +4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@DET	L 89-97	+7.5	L −0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@WSH	L 79-95	+1.5	L −14.5	218.5	U 174
Oct 31	vsPHI	L 104-109	+1.5	L −3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

+5.5

ATL

L 81-128

−44.5

MIA

W 115-110

+9.5

WSH

W 110-103

+4.5

DET

L 89-97

−0.5

WSH

L 79-95

−14.5

PHI

L 104-109

−3.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

−7.5

ATL

L 81-128

−17.5

MIA

W 115-110

−2.5

WSH

W 110-103

−12.5

DET

L 89-97

−26.5

WSH

L 79-95

−44.5

PHI

L 104-109

+1.5

over 1under 6avg −15.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Hornets has the better starters

Position by position: Nets 1, Hornets 2, even 2

NetsBetterHornets

G K. Ellis5 pts · 2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 21

Even

G D. Schroder11.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.4 ast Score 21

G N. Traore10.5 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 1

CHABig

G S. James3.7 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 63

F J. Randle20.8 pts · 7.2 reb · 5.3 ast Score 39

CHASmall

F B. Miller24.4 pts · 6 reb · 2.3 ast Score 70

F M. Porter21.2 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 91

BKNSmall

F M. Diabate9.4 pts · 9.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 66

C D. Sharpe8 pts · 7.7 reb · 1.7 ast Score 6

Even

C N. Reid15.9 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 14

NetsBetterHornets

BKN offense29th of 30 · -5.5

CHABig

CHA defense6th of 30 · +4.4

BKN defense22nd of 30 · -1.7

BKNSmall

CHA offense30th of 30 · -7.4

Backcourt-12.0 · 2 players

CHABig

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt+7.8 · 3 players

Even

Frontcourt+7.7 · 3 players

Bench-17.9 · 5 players

CHABig

Bench-5.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestBKN betterCHA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Nets

Guards

K. Ellis24 minN. Traore21 minT. Mann24 minD. Powell21 minB. Saraf21 min

Forwards

J. Randle34 minM. Porter32 minC. Johnson22 minN. Clowney22 minD. Wolf21 minJ. Minott11 min

Centers

D. Sharpe23 minM. Wagner19 min

Out

M. BrownDay-To-DayE. DeminOut

Hornets

Guards

D. Schroder32 minS. James25 minG. Allen27 minL. McNeeley12 minC. Anderson11 minM. AjayiNew

Forwards

B. Miller34 minM. Diabate29 minR. O'Neale18 minT. Salaun14 minH. Steinbach7 min

Centers

N. Reid29 minR. Kalkbrenner17 minP. Hall13 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BKN108.2 #25

CHA98.3 #30

Points per possession

BKN1.03 #29

CHA0.99 #30

Pace (possessions)

BKN105.1 #10

CHA98.3 #30

Shooting

Effective FG%

BKN50.7 #26

CHA48.4 #29

3-point %

BKN35.1 #15

CHA29.6 #28

3-point attempt rate

BKN48.0 #3

CHA50.8 #2

Free throw rate

BKN32.9 #6

CHA18.9 #30

Possessions

Turnover rate

BKN18.2 #27

CHA18.8 #29

Offensive rebound rate

BKN25.4 #23

CHA31.6 #4

Assists per game

BKN22.8 #28

CHA21.6 #30

Defense

Points allowed

BKN116.0 #21

CHA106.4 #4

Points allowed per possession

BKN1.11 #18

CHA1.09 #15

Opponent effective FG%

BKN55.3 #23

CHA53.1 #15

Opponent 3-point %

BKN35.8 #19

CHA37.5 #24

Turnovers forced

BKN15.9 #12

CHA14.5 #23

Defensive rebound rate

BKN77.8 #2

CHA76.6 #5

Steals per game

BKN9.0 #14

CHA7.1 #25

Blocks per game

BKN4.7 #17

CHA5.0 #15

BKN		CHA
Scoring
108.2 #25	Points per game	98.3 #30
1.03 #29	Points per possession	0.99 #30
105.1 #10	Pace (possessions)	98.3 #30
Shooting
50.7 #26	Effective FG%	48.4 #29
35.1 #15	3-point %	29.6 #28
48.0 #3	3-point attempt rate	50.8 #2
32.9 #6	Free throw rate	18.9 #30
Possessions
18.2 #27	Turnover rate	18.8 #29
25.4 #23	Offensive rebound rate	31.6 #4
22.8 #28	Assists per game	21.6 #30
Defense
116.0 #21	Points allowed	106.4 #4
1.11 #18	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #15
55.3 #23	Opponent effective FG%	53.1 #15
35.8 #19	Opponent 3-point %	37.5 #24
15.9 #12	Turnovers forced	14.5 #23
77.8 #2	Defensive rebound rate	76.6 #5
9.0 #14	Steals per game	7.1 #25
4.7 #17	Blocks per game	5.0 #15

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Nets

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Pacers98–90
Lvs Pistons94–110
L@ Celtics124–125
Lvs Pacers109–136
L@ Cavaliers121–125

A week or more of rest.

Hornets

3-4 overall · 3-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs 76ers104–109
L@ Wizards79–95
L@ Pistons89–97
Wvs Wizards110–103
Wvs Heat115–110

A week or more of rest.

Nets @ Hornets

What could decide it: BKN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Nets

Hornets

Hornets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Nets

Hornets