Charlotte Hornets at Philadelphia 76ers: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Apr 11, 6:00 PM ETXfinity Mobile Arena · at 76ers · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Hornets and 76ers
CHA	This season	PHI
3-4	Record	6-1
3-4	ATS	4-3
1-6	O/U	2-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PHI 109–104 · win probability PHI 64%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 213.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PHI has more of the edges

CHA 2, PHI 6 · 2026-27 so far

CHABig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CHA 31.6%, PHI 19.9%. Defensive: CHA 76.6%, PHI 70.8%

PHIBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CHA 18.8%, PHI 12.3%. Forced: CHA 14.5%, PHI 17.0%

PHIBig

CHA offense vs PHI defense

Offense 30th of 30 against a defense 10th, on the model’s ratings

CHABig

PHI offense vs CHA defense

Offense 22nd of 30 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings

PHIBig

Three-pointers

CHA hits 29.6% and allows 37.5%; PHI hits 34.0% and allows 32.1%. Threes are 50.8% and 39.5% of their shots

PHISmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: CHA 48.4 and allows 53.1; PHI 50.8 and allows 49.8

PHISmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: CHA 18.9, PHI 28.7. Allowed: CHA 28.4, PHI 28.5

Context

Tempo

About 100 possessions: CHA plays 98.3 a game (30th fastest), PHI 102.4 (19th). Faster games mean more points

PHISmall

Home court

PHI at home. This season: PHI 3-1 at home, CHA 1-2 away

Context

Schedule so far

CHA has played the 22nd-hardest schedule, PHI the 20th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Recent form

Last 5: CHA 2-3 ATS, margin -3.4; PHI 2-3 ATS, margin +2.6

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CHA 100%, PHI 100%. Transfers in: CHA 0, PHI 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHA WWLLL	3-4	43%	1-2	—
PHI LLLWW	4-3	57%	2-2	—

Venue/role: CHA away; PHI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHA UUUUO	1-6	14%	3-4
PHI OUUUO	2-5	29%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHAlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	1-6 14%
PHIlast 7	6-1 86%	4-3 57%	2-5 29%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Hornets

No more games listed yet.

76ers

No more games listed yet.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 19 since 2021-22

CHA 3–16 PHIPHI leads · 19 games since 2021-22 · PHI has won the last 2 meetings · CHA 10-9 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 31, 2026-27	PHI 109 @ CHA 104	CHA +1.5	PHI W
Mar 28, 2025-26	PHI 118 @ CHA 114	CHA -6.5	PHI W
Jan 26, 2025-26	PHI 93 @ CHA 130	CHA -1.5	CHA W
Oct 25, 2025-26	CHA 121 @ PHI 125	PHI -4.5	CHA W
Dec 20, 2024-25	CHA 98 @ PHI 108	PHI -13.5	CHA W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Hornets

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −6.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-6

14% overs · avg −15.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-614%

U U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@BKN	W 110-103	-1.5	W +5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 23	vsATL	L 81-128	+2.5	L −44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsMIA	W 115-110	+4.5	W +9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsWSH	W 110-103	-2.5	W +4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@DET	L 89-97	+7.5	L −0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@WSH	L 79-95	+1.5	L −14.5	218.5	U 174
Oct 31	vsPHI	L 104-109	+1.5	L −3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

+5.5

ATL

L 81-128

−44.5

MIA

W 115-110

+9.5

WSH

W 110-103

+4.5

DET

L 89-97

−0.5

WSH

L 79-95

−14.5

PHI

L 104-109

−3.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

−7.5

ATL

L 81-128

−17.5

MIA

W 115-110

−2.5

WSH

W 110-103

−12.5

DET

L 89-97

−26.5

WSH

L 79-95

−44.5

PHI

L 104-109

+1.5

over 1under 6avg −15.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

76ers

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −15.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

W W L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-529%

U U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@NY	W 106-100	+4.5	W +10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 22	vsCLE	W 114-106	-2.5	W +5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsMIL	W 127-116	-12.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 25	vsDET	L 93-106	+1.5	L −11.5	228.5	U 199
Oct 28	@IND	W 114-109	-7.5	L −2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	vsNY	W 98-93	-2.5	W +2.5	224.5	U 191
Oct 31	@CHA	W 109-104	-1.5	W +3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 106-100

+10.5

CLE

W 114-106

+5.5

MIL

W 127-116

−1.5

DET

L 93-106

−11.5

IND

W 114-109

−2.5

W 98-93

+2.5

CHA

W 109-104

+3.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 106-100

−25.5

CLE

W 114-106

−17.5

MIL

W 127-116

+8.5

DET

L 93-106

−29.5

IND

W 114-109

−11.5

W 98-93

−33.5

CHA

W 109-104

+1.5

over 2under 5avg −15.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

76ers has the better starters

Position by position: Hornets 1, 76ers 3, even 1

HornetsBetter76ers

G D. Schroder11.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.4 ast Score 21

PHIBig

G T. Maxey29.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.4 ast Score 67

G S. James3.7 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 63

CHASmall

G J. Brown19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 35

F B. Miller24.4 pts · 6 reb · 2.3 ast Score 70

PHISmall

G V. Edgecombe11.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 96

F M. Diabate9.4 pts · 9.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 66

Even

F L. James16.4 pts · 7 reb · 7 ast Score 54

C N. Reid15.9 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 14

PHIBig

F D. Wade3.6 pts · 3 reb · 2.6 ast Score 90

HornetsBetter76ers

CHA offense30th of 30 · -7.4

PHIBig

PHI defense10th of 30 · +3.0

CHA defense6th of 30 · +4.4

CHABig

PHI offense22nd of 30 · -1.7

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

PHIBig

Backcourt+25.4 · 3 players

Frontcourt+7.7 · 3 players

PHIBig

Frontcourt+14.0 · 2 players

Bench-5.0 · 5 players

CHABig

Bench-19.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCHA betterPHI betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Hornets

Guards

D. Schroder32 minS. James25 minG. Allen27 minL. McNeeley12 minC. Anderson11 minM. AjayiNew

Forwards

B. Miller34 minM. Diabate29 minR. O'Neale18 minT. Salaun14 minH. Steinbach7 min

Centers

N. Reid29 minR. Kalkbrenner17 minP. Hall13 min

76ers

Guards

T. Maxey38 minJ. Brown37 minV. Edgecombe33 minA. Simons25 minK. Caldwell-Pope24 minC. Love21 min

Forwards

L. James33 minD. Wade28 minJ. Edwards15 minJ. Walker10 min

Centers

A. Bona14 minT. FallNew

Out

J. EmbiidDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CHA98.3 #30

PHI108.7 #23

Points per possession

CHA0.99 #30

PHI1.06 #22

Pace (possessions)

CHA98.3 #30

PHI102.4 #19

Shooting

Effective FG%

CHA48.4 #29

PHI50.8 #25

3-point %

CHA29.6 #28

PHI34.0 #20

3-point attempt rate

CHA50.8 #2

PHI39.5 #23

Free throw rate

CHA18.9 #30

PHI28.7 #16

Possessions

Turnover rate

CHA18.8 #29

PHI12.3 #1

Offensive rebound rate

CHA31.6 #4

PHI19.9 #30

Assists per game

CHA21.6 #30

PHI25.1 #22

Defense

Points allowed

CHA106.4 #4

PHI104.9 #2

Points allowed per possession

CHA1.09 #15

PHI1.03 #3

Opponent effective FG%

CHA53.1 #15

PHI49.8 #4

Opponent 3-point %

CHA37.5 #24

PHI32.1 #9

Turnovers forced

CHA14.5 #23

PHI17.0 #9

Defensive rebound rate

CHA76.6 #5

PHI70.8 #21

Steals per game

CHA7.1 #25

PHI9.6 #7

Blocks per game

CHA5.0 #15

PHI5.0 #14

CHA		PHI
Scoring
98.3 #30	Points per game	108.7 #23
0.99 #30	Points per possession	1.06 #22
98.3 #30	Pace (possessions)	102.4 #19
Shooting
48.4 #29	Effective FG%	50.8 #25
29.6 #28	3-point %	34.0 #20
50.8 #2	3-point attempt rate	39.5 #23
18.9 #30	Free throw rate	28.7 #16
Possessions
18.8 #29	Turnover rate	12.3 #1
31.6 #4	Offensive rebound rate	19.9 #30
21.6 #30	Assists per game	25.1 #22
Defense
106.4 #4	Points allowed	104.9 #2
1.09 #15	Points allowed per possession	1.03 #3
53.1 #15	Opponent effective FG%	49.8 #4
37.5 #24	Opponent 3-point %	32.1 #9
14.5 #23	Turnovers forced	17.0 #9
76.6 #5	Defensive rebound rate	70.8 #21
7.1 #25	Steals per game	9.6 #7
5.0 #15	Blocks per game	5.0 #14

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hornets

3-4 overall · 3-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs 76ers104–109
L@ Wizards79–95
L@ Pistons89–97
Wvs Wizards110–103
Wvs Heat115–110

A week or more of rest.

76ers

6-1 overall · 6-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Hornets109–104
Wvs Knicks98–93
W@ Pacers114–109
Lvs Pistons93–106
Wvs Bucks127–116

A week or more of rest.

Hornets @ 76ers

What could decide it: PHI has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Hornets

76ers

76ers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Hornets

76ers