Charlotte Hornets at Milwaukee Bucks: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Apr 2, 8:00 PM ETFiserv Forum · at Bucks · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Hornets and Bucks
CHA	This season	MIL
3-4	Record	1-5
3-4	ATS	2-4
1-6	O/U	5-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CHA 112–109 · win probability CHA 61%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 220.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

CHA 2, MIL 2 · 2026-27 so far

CHABig

MIL offense vs CHA defense

Offense 26th of 30 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: CHA plays 98.3 a game (30th fastest), MIL 106.2 (4th). Faster games mean more points

MILSmall

Three-pointers

CHA hits 29.6% and allows 37.5%; MIL hits 33.9% and allows 34.9%. Threes are 50.8% and 45.9% of their shots

CHASmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CHA 31.6%, MIL 29.7%. Defensive: CHA 76.6%, MIL 74.2%

MILSmall

Home court

MIL at home. This season: MIL 1-3 at home, CHA 1-2 away

Even

CHA offense vs MIL defense

Offense 30th of 30 against a defense 28th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CHA 18.8%, MIL 15.8%. Forced: CHA 14.5%, MIL 12.2%

Context

Schedule so far

CHA has played the 22nd-hardest schedule, MIL the 23rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: CHA 18.9, MIL 23.9. Allowed: CHA 28.4, MIL 29.7

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: CHA 48.4 and allows 53.1; MIL 52.0 and allows 55.4

Even

Recent form

Last 5: CHA 2-3 ATS, margin -3.4; MIL 2-3 ATS, margin -13.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CHA 100%, MIL 100%. Transfers in: CHA 0, MIL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHA WWLLL	3-4	43%	1-2	—
MIL LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-3	—

Venue/role: CHA away; MIL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHA UUUUO	1-6	14%	3-4
MIL OOUOO	5-1	83%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHAlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	1-6 14%
MILlast 6	1-5 17%	2-4 33%	5-1 83%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Hornets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 4	@ CLE	L113–118WO
Apr 6	vs IND	W129–108WO
Apr 7	@ CHI	W131–99WU

Bucks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 4	vs BKN	W125–108WO
Apr 6	vs CHI	L125–132LO
Apr 8	vs NY	L98–127LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

CHA 5–13 MILMIL leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · MIL has won the last 3 meetings · CHA 9-9 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 2, 2025-26	CHA 121 @ MIL 122	MIL -5.5	CHA W
Dec 29, 2025-26	MIL 123 @ CHA 113	CHA +2.5	MIL W
Nov 14, 2025-26	CHA 134 @ MIL 147	MIL -9.5	MIL W
Nov 12, 2025-26	MIL 100 @ CHA 111	CHA +2.5	CHA W
Feb 5, 2024-25	MIL 112 @ CHA 102	CHA +8.5	MIL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Hornets

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −6.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-6

14% overs · avg −15.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-614%

U U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@BKN	W 110-103	-1.5	W +5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 23	vsATL	L 81-128	+2.5	L −44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsMIA	W 115-110	+4.5	W +9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsWSH	W 110-103	-2.5	W +4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@DET	L 89-97	+7.5	L −0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@WSH	L 79-95	+1.5	L −14.5	218.5	U 174
Oct 31	vsPHI	L 104-109	+1.5	L −3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

+5.5

ATL

L 81-128

−44.5

MIA

W 115-110

+9.5

WSH

W 110-103

+4.5

DET

L 89-97

−0.5

WSH

L 79-95

−14.5

PHI

L 104-109

−3.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

−7.5

ATL

L 81-128

−17.5

MIA

W 115-110

−2.5

WSH

W 110-103

−12.5

DET

L 89-97

−26.5

WSH

L 79-95

−44.5

PHI

L 104-109

+1.5

over 1under 6avg −15.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bucks

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −7.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

O O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@WSH	L 116-128	+4.5	L −7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsCHI	L 125-132	-1.5	L −8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	@PHI	L 116-127	+12.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 26	vsIND	W 110-102	+3.5	W +11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsHOU	L 100-132	+8.5	L −23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 31	vsCLE	L 111-136	+8.5	L −16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

−7.5

CHI

L 125-132

−8.5

PHI

L 116-127

+1.5

IND

W 110-102

+11.5

HOU

L 100-132

−23.5

CLE

L 111-136

−16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −7.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

+4.5

CHI

L 125-132

+15.5

PHI

L 116-127

+8.5

IND

W 110-102

−27.5

HOU

L 100-132

+5.5

CLE

L 111-136

+12.5

over 5under 1avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Hornets has the better starters

Position by position: Hornets 4, Bucks 1, even 0

HornetsBetterBucks

G D. Schroder11.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.4 ast Score 21

CHASmall

G T. Herro22 pts · 4.8 reb · 4.2 ast Score 6

G S. James3.7 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 63

CHABig

G R. Rollins11.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.7 ast Score 2

F B. Miller24.4 pts · 6 reb · 2.3 ast Score 70

CHASmall

F J. Jaquez16.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 3 ast Score 51

F M. Diabate9.4 pts · 9.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 66

CHABig

F K. Kuzma11.3 pts · 7.2 reb · 2.8 ast Score 31

C N. Reid15.9 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 14

MILBig

C M. Turner7.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 56

HornetsBetterBucks

CHA offense30th of 30 · -7.4

Even

MIL defense28th of 30 · -6.0

CHA defense6th of 30 · +4.4

CHABig

MIL offense26th of 30 · -2.9

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

CHABig

Backcourt-20.2 · 2 players

Frontcourt+7.7 · 3 players

CHASmall

Frontcourt+5.0 · 3 players

Bench-5.0 · 5 players

MILBig

Bench-0.7 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCHA betterMIL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Hornets

Guards

D. Schroder32 minS. James25 minG. Allen27 minL. McNeeley12 minC. Anderson11 minM. AjayiNew

Forwards

B. Miller34 minM. Diabate29 minR. O'Neale18 minT. Salaun14 minH. Steinbach7 min

Centers

N. Reid29 minR. Kalkbrenner17 minP. Hall13 min

Bucks

Guards

T. Herro30 minR. Rollins26 minK. Porter33 minK. Jakucionis23 minG. Trent21 minA. Green19 min

Forwards

J. Jaquez28 minK. Kuzma27 minN. Ament16 minO. Dieng12 minB. Markovic5 min

Centers

M. Turner26 minJ. Sims20 minK. Ware20 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CHA98.3 #30

MIL113.0 #17

Points per possession

CHA0.99 #30

MIL1.07 #20

Pace (possessions)

CHA98.3 #30

MIL106.2 #4

Shooting

Effective FG%

CHA48.4 #29

MIL52.0 #21

3-point %

CHA29.6 #28

MIL33.9 #21

3-point attempt rate

CHA50.8 #2

MIL45.9 #8

Free throw rate

CHA18.9 #30

MIL23.9 #25

Possessions

Turnover rate

CHA18.8 #29

MIL15.8 #18

Offensive rebound rate

CHA31.6 #4

MIL29.7 #8

Assists per game

CHA21.6 #30

MIL26.0 #20

Defense

Points allowed

CHA106.4 #4

MIL126.2 #28

Points allowed per possession

CHA1.09 #15

MIL1.18 #28

Opponent effective FG%

CHA53.1 #15

MIL55.4 #24

Opponent 3-point %

CHA37.5 #24

MIL34.9 #14

Turnovers forced

CHA14.5 #23

MIL12.2 #30

Defensive rebound rate

CHA76.6 #5

MIL74.2 #10

Steals per game

CHA7.1 #25

MIL5.7 #30

Blocks per game

CHA5.0 #15

MIL4.0 #27

CHA		MIL
Scoring
98.3 #30	Points per game	113.0 #17
0.99 #30	Points per possession	1.07 #20
98.3 #30	Pace (possessions)	106.2 #4
Shooting
48.4 #29	Effective FG%	52.0 #21
29.6 #28	3-point %	33.9 #21
50.8 #2	3-point attempt rate	45.9 #8
18.9 #30	Free throw rate	23.9 #25
Possessions
18.8 #29	Turnover rate	15.8 #18
31.6 #4	Offensive rebound rate	29.7 #8
21.6 #30	Assists per game	26.0 #20
Defense
106.4 #4	Points allowed	126.2 #28
1.09 #15	Points allowed per possession	1.18 #28
53.1 #15	Opponent effective FG%	55.4 #24
37.5 #24	Opponent 3-point %	34.9 #14
14.5 #23	Turnovers forced	12.2 #30
76.6 #5	Defensive rebound rate	74.2 #10
7.1 #25	Steals per game	5.7 #30
5.0 #15	Blocks per game	4.0 #27

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hornets

3-4 overall · 3-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs 76ers104–109
L@ Wizards79–95
L@ Pistons89–97
Wvs Wizards110–103
Wvs Heat115–110

A week or more of rest.

Bucks

1-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Cavaliers111–136
Lvs Rockets100–132
Wvs Pacers110–102
L@ 76ers116–127
Lvs Bulls125–132

A week or more of rest.

Hornets @ Bucks

What could decide it

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Hornets

Bucks

Hornets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Hornets

Bucks