Chicago Bulls at Milwaukee Bucks: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Apr 6, 8:00 PM ETFiserv Forum · at Bucks · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Bulls and Bucks
CHI	This season	MIL
1-5	Record	1-5
3-3	ATS	2-4
2-4	O/U	5-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIL 121–119 · win probability MIL 58%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 239.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIL has more of the edges

CHI 2, MIL 5 · 2026-27 so far

CHIBig

CHI offense vs MIL defense

Offense 12th of 30 against a defense 28th, on the model’s ratings

MILBig

Three-pointers

CHI hits 28.1% and allows 39.3%; MIL hits 33.9% and allows 34.9%. Threes are 47.9% and 45.9% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

CHI has played the 14th-hardest schedule, MIL the 23rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

MILSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CHI 29.2%, MIL 29.7%. Defensive: CHI 69.8%, MIL 74.2%

CHISmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: CHI 38.3, MIL 23.9. Allowed: CHI 33.5, MIL 29.7

MILSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: CHI 48.2 and allows 56.0; MIL 52.0 and allows 55.4

MILSmall

Home court

MIL at home. This season: MIL 1-3 at home, CHI 1-3 away

MILSmall

MIL offense vs CHI defense

Offense 26th of 30 against a defense 30th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CHI 16.2%, MIL 15.8%. Forced: CHI 14.7%, MIL 12.2%

Even

Recent form

Last 5: CHI 3-2 ATS, margin -10.4; MIL 2-3 ATS, margin -13.4

Context

Tempo

About 108 possessions: CHI plays 109.8 a game (1st fastest), MIL 106.2 (4th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CHI 100%, MIL 100%. Transfers in: CHI 0, MIL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHI WLLWW	3-3	50%	2-2	—
MIL LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-3	—

Venue/role: CHI away; MIL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHI OUUOU	2-4	33%	1-5
MIL OOUOO	5-1	83%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHIlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%
MILlast 6	1-5 17%	2-4 33%	5-1 83%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Bulls

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 7	vs CHA	L99–131LU
Apr 9	vs MIL	W132–125WO
Apr 11	@ NO	W134–118WO

Bucks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 8	vs NY	L98–127LO
Apr 9	@ CHI	L125–132LO
Apr 11	@ BOS	L101–133LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 26 since 2021-22

CHI 8–18 MILMIL leads · 26 games since 2021-22 · CHI has won the last 2 meetings · CHI 12-14 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 23, 2026-27	CHI 132 @ MIL 125	MIL -1.5	CHI W
Mar 1, 2025-26	MIL 97 @ CHI 120	CHI +2.5	CHI W
Feb 3, 2025-26	CHI 115 @ MIL 131	MIL +1.5	MIL W
Dec 27, 2025-26	MIL 112 @ CHI 103	CHI -2.5	MIL W
Nov 7, 2025-26	CHI 110 @ MIL 126	MIL -4.5	MIL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bulls

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@TOR	L 92-135	+10.5	L −32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@MIL	W 132-125	+1.5	W +8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	vsWSH	L 120-124	-1.5	L −5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@BOS	L 99-134	+14.5	L −20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 28	vsNY	L 127-133	+7.5	W +1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@BOS	L 111-125	+14.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−32.5

MIL

W 132-125

+8.5

WSH

L 120-124

−5.5

BOS

L 99-134

−20.5

L 127-133

+1.5

BOS

L 111-125

+0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−10.5

MIL

W 132-125

+15.5

WSH

L 120-124

−0.5

BOS

L 99-134

−0.5

L 127-133

+26.5

BOS

L 111-125

−0.5

over 2under 4avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bucks

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −7.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

O O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@WSH	L 116-128	+4.5	L −7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsCHI	L 125-132	-1.5	L −8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	@PHI	L 116-127	+12.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 26	vsIND	W 110-102	+3.5	W +11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsHOU	L 100-132	+8.5	L −23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 31	vsCLE	L 111-136	+8.5	L −16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

−7.5

CHI

L 125-132

−8.5

PHI

L 116-127

+1.5

IND

W 110-102

+11.5

HOU

L 100-132

−23.5

CLE

L 111-136

−16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −7.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

+4.5

CHI

L 125-132

+15.5

PHI

L 116-127

+8.5

IND

W 110-102

−27.5

HOU

L 100-132

+5.5

CLE

L 111-136

+12.5

over 5under 1avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Bucks has the better starters

Position by position: Bulls 2, Bucks 3, even 0

BullsBetterBucks

G N. Powell20.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 2 ast Score 71

CHIBig

G T. Herro22 pts · 4.8 reb · 4.2 ast Score 6

G J. Giddey8.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 7.5 ast Score 29

CHISmall

G R. Rollins11.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.7 ast Score 2

F C. Wilson21.2 pts · 6.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 6

MILBig

F J. Jaquez16.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 3 ast Score 51

F M. Buzelis14.5 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 4

MILSmall

F K. Kuzma11.3 pts · 7.2 reb · 2.8 ast Score 31

F P. Williams7 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 19

MILBig

C M. Turner7.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 56

BullsBetterBucks

CHI offense12th of 30 · +1.2

CHIBig

MIL defense28th of 30 · -6.0

CHI defense30th of 30 · -9.4

Even

MIL offense26th of 30 · -2.9

Backcourt+5.1 · 2 players

CHIBig

Backcourt-20.2 · 2 players

Frontcourt-24.0 · 3 players

MILBig

Frontcourt+5.0 · 3 players

Bench-6.9 · 5 players

MILBig

Bench-0.7 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCHI betterMIL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Bulls

Guards

N. Powell30 minJ. Giddey27 minT. Jones18 minB. Hield14 minJ. Hawkins14 minD. Swain12 min

Forwards

C. Wilson34 minM. Buzelis25 minP. Williams21 minL. Miller19 minZ. Collins18 minI. Okoro18 min

Out

J. SmithDay-To-DayT. AwakaDay-To-Day

Bucks

Guards

T. Herro30 minR. Rollins26 minK. Porter33 minK. Jakucionis23 minG. Trent21 minA. Green19 min

Forwards

J. Jaquez28 minK. Kuzma27 minN. Ament16 minO. Dieng12 minB. Markovic5 min

Centers

M. Turner26 minJ. Sims20 minK. Ware20 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CHI113.5 #16

MIL113.0 #17

Points per possession

CHI1.04 #26

MIL1.07 #20

Pace (possessions)

CHI109.8 #1

MIL106.2 #4

Shooting

Effective FG%

CHI48.2 #30

MIL52.0 #21

3-point %

CHI28.1 #30

MIL33.9 #21

3-point attempt rate

CHI47.9 #4

MIL45.9 #8

Free throw rate

CHI38.3 #1

MIL23.9 #25

Possessions

Turnover rate

CHI16.2 #20

MIL15.8 #18

Offensive rebound rate

CHI29.2 #9

MIL29.7 #8

Assists per game

CHI24.3 #25

MIL26.0 #20

Defense

Points allowed

CHI129.3 #30

MIL126.2 #28

Points allowed per possession

CHI1.17 #27

MIL1.18 #28

Opponent effective FG%

CHI56.0 #26

MIL55.4 #24

Opponent 3-point %

CHI39.3 #28

MIL34.9 #14

Turnovers forced

CHI14.7 #21

MIL12.2 #30

Defensive rebound rate

CHI69.8 #24

MIL74.2 #10

Steals per game

CHI8.7 #17

MIL5.7 #30

Blocks per game

CHI5.0 #12

MIL4.0 #27

CHI		MIL
Scoring
113.5 #16	Points per game	113.0 #17
1.04 #26	Points per possession	1.07 #20
109.8 #1	Pace (possessions)	106.2 #4
Shooting
48.2 #30	Effective FG%	52.0 #21
28.1 #30	3-point %	33.9 #21
47.9 #4	3-point attempt rate	45.9 #8
38.3 #1	Free throw rate	23.9 #25
Possessions
16.2 #20	Turnover rate	15.8 #18
29.2 #9	Offensive rebound rate	29.7 #8
24.3 #25	Assists per game	26.0 #20
Defense
129.3 #30	Points allowed	126.2 #28
1.17 #27	Points allowed per possession	1.18 #28
56.0 #26	Opponent effective FG%	55.4 #24
39.3 #28	Opponent 3-point %	34.9 #14
14.7 #21	Turnovers forced	12.2 #30
69.8 #24	Defensive rebound rate	74.2 #10
8.7 #17	Steals per game	5.7 #30
5.0 #12	Blocks per game	4.0 #27

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bulls

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Celtics111–125
Lvs Knicks127–133
L@ Celtics99–134
Lvs Wizards120–124
W@ Bucks132–125

A week or more of rest.

Bucks

1-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Cavaliers111–136
Lvs Rockets100–132
Wvs Pacers110–102
L@ 76ers116–127
Lvs Bulls125–132

A week or more of rest.

Bulls @ Bucks

What could decide it: MIL has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Bulls

Bucks

Bucks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Bulls

Bucks