Chicago Bulls at New Orleans Pelicans: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Apr 11, 6:00 PM ETSmoothie King Center · at Pelicans

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Bulls and Pelicans
CHI	This season	NO
1-5	Record	2-4
3-3	ATS	4-2
2-4	O/U	4-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NO 126–117 · win probability NO 74%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 242.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NO has more of the edges

CHI 1, NO 4 · 2026-27 so far

NOBig

NO offense vs CHI defense

Offense 13th of 30 against a defense 30th, on the model’s ratings

NOBig

Three-pointers

CHI hits 28.1% and allows 39.3%; NO hits 31.2% and allows 30.5%. Threes are 47.9% and 32.8% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

CHI has played the 14th-hardest schedule, NO the 28th. A record against a soft schedule means less

NOBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: CHI 48.2 and allows 56.0; NO 55.1 and allows 54.2

CHIBig

CHI offense vs NO defense

Offense 12th of 30 against a defense 24th, on the model’s ratings

NOSmall

Home court

NO at home. This season: NO 2-2 at home, CHI 1-3 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: CHI 3-2 ATS, margin -10.4; NO 4-1 ATS, margin +2.8

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: CHI 38.3, NO 35.3. Allowed: CHI 33.5, NO 30.6

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CHI 16.2%, NO 17.4%. Forced: CHI 14.7%, NO 16.3%

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CHI 29.2%, NO 24.3%. Defensive: CHI 69.8%, NO 76.4%

Context

Tempo

About 109 possessions: CHI plays 109.8 a game (1st fastest), NO 108.0 (2nd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CHI 100%, NO 100%. Transfers in: CHI 0, NO 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHI WLLWW	3-3	50%	2-2	—
NO WWLWW	4-2	67%	2-2	—

Venue/role: CHI away; NO home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHI OUUOU	2-4	33%	1-5
NO OOUOU	4-2	67%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHIlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%
NOlast 6	2-4 33%	4-2 67%	4-2 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Bulls

No more games listed yet.

Pelicans

No more games listed yet.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 11 since 2021-22

CHI 4–7 NONO leads · 11 games since 2021-22 · CHI 4-7 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 31, 2025-26	NO 118 @ CHI 134	CHI -1.5	CHI W
Dec 14, 2025-26	NO 114 @ CHI 104	CHI -4.5	NO W
Nov 24, 2025-26	CHI 130 @ NO 143	NO +4.5	NO W
Jan 14, 2024-25	NO 119 @ CHI 113	CHI -1.5	NO W
Oct 23, 2024-25	CHI 111 @ NO 123	NO -5.5	NO W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bulls

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@TOR	L 92-135	+10.5	L −32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@MIL	W 132-125	+1.5	W +8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	vsWSH	L 120-124	-1.5	L −5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@BOS	L 99-134	+14.5	L −20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 28	vsNY	L 127-133	+7.5	W +1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@BOS	L 111-125	+14.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−32.5

MIL

W 132-125

+8.5

WSH

L 120-124

−5.5

BOS

L 99-134

−20.5

L 127-133

+1.5

BOS

L 111-125

+0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−10.5

MIL

W 132-125

+15.5

WSH

L 120-124

−0.5

BOS

L 99-134

−0.5

L 127-133

+26.5

BOS

L 111-125

−0.5

over 2under 4avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Pelicans

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-267%

L W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-267%

O O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsIND	L 120-123	+2.5	L −0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	@UTAH	L 119-120	+1.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 239
Oct 24	@DEN	L 135-141	+11.5	W +5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 28	vsDEN	L 91-104	+4.5	L −8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 29	vsSAC	W 132-120	-6.5	W +5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	vsATL	W 121-99	+5.5	W +27.5	239.5	U 220

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

IND

L 120-123

−0.5

UTAH

L 119-120

+0.5

DEN

L 135-141

+5.5

DEN

L 91-104

−8.5

SAC

W 132-120

+5.5

ATL

W 121-99

+27.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

IND

L 120-123

+4.5

UTAH

L 119-120

+0.5

DEN

L 135-141

+36.5

DEN

L 91-104

−46.5

SAC

W 132-120

+17.5

ATL

W 121-99

−19.5

over 4under 2avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Pelicans has the better starters

Position by position: Bulls 1, Pelicans 3, even 1

BullsBetterPelicans

G N. Powell20.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 2 ast Score 71

CHISmall

G D. Murray17.8 pts · 5.8 reb · 6 ast Score 45

G J. Giddey8.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 7.5 ast Score 29

Even

G J. Fears13 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 19

F C. Wilson21.2 pts · 6.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 6

NOBig

F Z. Williamson20.7 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.5 ast Score 81

F M. Buzelis14.5 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 4

NOBig

F H. Jones6.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 75

F P. Williams7 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 19

NOSmall

C D. Jordan6 pts · 6.5 reb · 1 ast Score 52

BullsBetterPelicans

CHI offense12th of 30 · +1.2

CHIBig

NO defense24th of 30 · -3.7

CHI defense30th of 30 · -9.4

NOBig

NO offense13th of 30 · +1.1

Backcourt+5.1 · 2 players

CHIBig

Backcourt-1.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt-24.0 · 3 players

NOBig

Frontcourt+15.7 · 3 players

Bench-6.9 · 5 players

CHIBig

Bench-16.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCHI betterNO betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Bulls

Guards

N. Powell30 minJ. Giddey27 minT. Jones18 minB. Hield14 minJ. Hawkins14 minD. Swain12 min

Forwards

C. Wilson34 minM. Buzelis25 minP. Williams21 minL. Miller19 minZ. Collins18 minI. Okoro18 min

Out

J. SmithDay-To-DayT. AwakaDay-To-Day

Pelicans

Guards

D. Murray32 minJ. Fears25 minS. Bey25 minB. McGowens21 minB. Mathurin18 minA. Johnson10 min

Forwards

Z. Williamson32 minH. Jones21 minJ. Reese31 minT. Watford18 minK. Matkovic16 min

Centers

D. Jordan17 minD. Queen24 min

Out

J. PooleOutT. MurphyDay-To-DayY. MissiOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CHI113.5 #16

NO119.7 #7

Points per possession

CHI1.04 #26

NO1.10 #15

Pace (possessions)

CHI109.8 #1

NO108.0 #2

Shooting

Effective FG%

CHI48.2 #30

NO55.1 #9

3-point %

CHI28.1 #30

NO31.2 #25

3-point attempt rate

CHI47.9 #4

NO32.8 #30

Free throw rate

CHI38.3 #1

NO35.3 #4

Possessions

Turnover rate

CHI16.2 #20

NO17.4 #26

Offensive rebound rate

CHI29.2 #9

NO24.3 #25

Assists per game

CHI24.3 #25

NO25.5 #21

Defense

Points allowed

CHI129.3 #30

NO117.8 #24

Points allowed per possession

CHI1.17 #27

NO1.09 #16

Opponent effective FG%

CHI56.0 #26

NO54.2 #21

Opponent 3-point %

CHI39.3 #28

NO30.5 #5

Turnovers forced

CHI14.7 #21

NO16.3 #10

Defensive rebound rate

CHI69.8 #24

NO76.4 #6

Steals per game

CHI8.7 #17

NO13.7 #1

Blocks per game

CHI5.0 #12

NO4.8 #16

CHI		NO
Scoring
113.5 #16	Points per game	119.7 #7
1.04 #26	Points per possession	1.10 #15
109.8 #1	Pace (possessions)	108.0 #2
Shooting
48.2 #30	Effective FG%	55.1 #9
28.1 #30	3-point %	31.2 #25
47.9 #4	3-point attempt rate	32.8 #30
38.3 #1	Free throw rate	35.3 #4
Possessions
16.2 #20	Turnover rate	17.4 #26
29.2 #9	Offensive rebound rate	24.3 #25
24.3 #25	Assists per game	25.5 #21
Defense
129.3 #30	Points allowed	117.8 #24
1.17 #27	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #16
56.0 #26	Opponent effective FG%	54.2 #21
39.3 #28	Opponent 3-point %	30.5 #5
14.7 #21	Turnovers forced	16.3 #10
69.8 #24	Defensive rebound rate	76.4 #6
8.7 #17	Steals per game	13.7 #1
5.0 #12	Blocks per game	4.8 #16

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bulls

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Celtics111–125
Lvs Knicks127–133
L@ Celtics99–134
Lvs Wizards120–124
W@ Bucks132–125

A week or more of rest.

Pelicans

2-4 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hawks121–99
Wvs Kings132–120
Lvs Nuggets91–104
L@ Nuggets135–141
L@ Jazz119–120

A week or more of rest.

Bulls @ Pelicans

What could decide it: NO has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Bulls

Pelicans

Pelicans has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Bulls

Pelicans