Sacramento Kings at San Antonio Spurs: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Apr 6, 8:00 PM ETFrost Bank Center · at Spurs · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Kings and Spurs
SAC	This season	SA
0-6	Record	4-2
1-5	ATS	2-4
5-1	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SA 127–105 · win probability SA 94%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 231.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SA has more of the edges

SAC 0, SA 8 · 2026-27 so far

SABig

SA offense vs SAC defense

Offense 5th of 30 against a defense 29th, on the model’s ratings

SABig

SAC offense vs SA defense

Offense 27th of 30 against a defense 7th, on the model’s ratings

SABig

Shooting

Effective FG%: SAC 51.0 and allows 60.4; SA 53.3 and allows 52.1

SABig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SAC 15.9%, SA 13.1%. Forced: SAC 14.6%, SA 15.7%

SASmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SAC 22.9%, SA 27.2%. Defensive: SAC 73.7%, SA 75.8%

SASmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: SAC 26.4, SA 24.5. Allowed: SAC 31.2, SA 21.7

SASmall

Three-pointers

SAC hits 30.4% and allows 39.2%; SA hits 34.9% and allows 37.3%. Threes are 38.0% and 39.0% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

SAC has played the 8th-hardest schedule, SA the 15th. A record against a soft schedule means less

SASmall

Home court

SA at home. This season: SA 2-2 at home, SAC 0-4 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: SAC 1-4 ATS, margin -17.8; SA 2-3 ATS, margin +11.0

Context

Tempo

About 105 possessions: SAC plays 106.0 a game (6th fastest), SA 104.3 (11th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SAC 100%, SA 100%. Transfers in: SAC 0, SA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SAC WLLLL	1-5	17%	0-4	—
SA LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-3	—

Venue/role: SAC away; SA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SAC OOOOO	5-1	83%	0-6
SA UUOUO	2-4	33%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SAClast 6	0-6 0%	1-5 17%	5-1 83%
SAlast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Kings

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 7	@ HOU	L97–128LO
Apr 9	vs DAL	W130–121WO
Apr 11	@ LAC	L96–121LU

Spurs

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 7	vs CLE	L101–113LU
Apr 9	vs DEN	L118–128LO
Apr 11	vs POR	W114–95WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

SAC 10–8 SASAC leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · SA has won the last 4 meetings · SAC 9-9 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 27, 2026-27	SAC 103 @ SA 130	SA -19.5	SA W
Mar 17, 2025-26	SA 132 @ SAC 104	SAC +13.5	SA W
Feb 21, 2025-26	SAC 122 @ SA 139	SA -18.5	SAC W
Nov 16, 2025-26	SAC 110 @ SA 123	SA -6.5	SA W
Mar 7, 2024-25	SA 109 @ SAC 127	SAC -6.5	SAC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Kings

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −10.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAC	L 96-121	+5.5	L −19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	vsPOR	L 120-128	+9.5	W +1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 25	vsMEM	L 112-123	+3.5	L −7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 27	@SA	L 103-130	+19.5	L −7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 29	@NO	L 120-132	+6.5	L −5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	@MEM	L 105-136	+7.5	L −23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−19.5

POR

L 120-128

+1.5

MEM

L 112-123

−7.5

L 103-130

−7.5

L 120-132

−5.5

MEM

L 105-136

−23.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −10.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−9.5

POR

L 120-128

+16.5

MEM

L 112-123

+0.5

L 103-130

+0.5

L 120-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-136

+11.5

over 5under 1avg +6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Spurs

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −3.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsOKC	L 104-116	+1.5	L −10.5	229.5	U 220
Oct 23	vsHOU	L 110-114	-4.5	L −8.5	224.5	U 224
Oct 24	@DAL	W 122-106	-14.5	W +1.5	229.5	U 228
Oct 27	vsSAC	W 130-103	-19.5	W +7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 28	@UTAH	W 117-111	-13.5	L −7.5	232.5	U 228
Oct 31	vsMIN	W 121-111	-12.5	L −2.5	230.5	O 232

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 104-116

−10.5

HOU

L 110-114

−8.5

DAL

W 122-106

+1.5

SAC

W 130-103

+7.5

UTAH

W 117-111

−7.5

MIN

W 121-111

−2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 104-116

−9.5

HOU

L 110-114

−0.5

DAL

W 122-106

−1.5

SAC

W 130-103

+0.5

UTAH

W 117-111

−4.5

MIN

W 121-111

+1.5

over 2under 4avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Spurs has the better starters

Position by position: Kings 0, Spurs 5, even 0

KingsBetterSpurs

G D. Acuff26.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 6.3 ast Score 4

SABig

G D. Harper18.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 4.8 ast Score 98

F D. Sabonis16 pts · 15.8 reb · 7.3 ast Score 26

SASmall

G D. Vassell12 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 53

F D. Hunter14 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 38

SABig

G D. Fox16.5 pts · 4.8 reb · 7 ast Score 84

F P. Achiuwa12.5 pts · 6 reb · 1 ast Score 7

SABig

G S. Castle14.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 5.2 ast Score 69

F L. Black7.1 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 13

SABig

F V. Wembanyama28 pts · 10.7 reb · 3 ast Score 98

KingsBetterSpurs

SAC offense27th of 30 · -3.0

SABig

SA defense7th of 30 · +3.7

SAC defense29th of 30 · -7.9

SABig

SA offense5th of 30 · +2.9

Backcourt-13.7 · 1 player

SABig

Backcourt+42.2 · 4 players

Frontcourt-18.6 · 4 players

SABig

Frontcourt+17.3 · 1 player

Bench-13.2 · 5 players

SABig

Bench+19.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestSAC betterSA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Kings

Guards

D. Acuff37 minE. Sharp18 minD. Plowden14 minM. Monk12 minN. Clifford8 minA. FlaglerNew

Forwards

D. Sabonis37 minD. Hunter29 minP. Achiuwa29 minL. Black29 minJ. Mogbo17 minA. Karaban10 min

Out

Z. LaVineDay-To-DayK. MurrayOut

Spurs

Guards

D. Harper34 minD. Vassell33 minD. Fox32 minS. Castle29 minJ. McLaughlin6 minJ. Gillespie2 min

Forwards

V. Wembanyama33 minJ. Champagnie28 minK. Johnson22 minC. Bryant9 minH. Barnes8 minD. Jones Garcia6 min

Centers

L. Kornet15 minT. Reed4 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SAC109.3 #22

SA117.3 #12

Points per possession

SAC1.03 #28

SA1.12 #10

Pace (possessions)

SAC106.0 #6

SA104.3 #11

Shooting

Effective FG%

SAC51.0 #23

SA53.3 #16

3-point %

SAC30.4 #27

SA34.9 #17

3-point attempt rate

SAC38.0 #27

SA39.0 #24

Free throw rate

SAC26.4 #20

SA24.5 #24

Possessions

Turnover rate

SAC15.9 #19

SA13.1 #2

Offensive rebound rate

SAC22.9 #28

SA27.2 #16

Assists per game

SAC24.5 #23

SA27.5 #9

Defense

Points allowed

SAC128.3 #29

SA110.2 #12

Points allowed per possession

SAC1.21 #29

SA1.06 #6

Opponent effective FG%

SAC60.4 #30

SA52.1 #11

Opponent 3-point %

SAC39.2 #27

SA37.3 #23

Turnovers forced

SAC14.6 #22

SA15.7 #14

Defensive rebound rate

SAC73.7 #12

SA75.8 #7

Steals per game

SAC8.0 #21

SA9.2 #10

Blocks per game

SAC2.3 #30

SA7.0 #1

SAC		SA
Scoring
109.3 #22	Points per game	117.3 #12
1.03 #28	Points per possession	1.12 #10
106.0 #6	Pace (possessions)	104.3 #11
Shooting
51.0 #23	Effective FG%	53.3 #16
30.4 #27	3-point %	34.9 #17
38.0 #27	3-point attempt rate	39.0 #24
26.4 #20	Free throw rate	24.5 #24
Possessions
15.9 #19	Turnover rate	13.1 #2
22.9 #28	Offensive rebound rate	27.2 #16
24.5 #23	Assists per game	27.5 #9
Defense
128.3 #29	Points allowed	110.2 #12
1.21 #29	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #6
60.4 #30	Opponent effective FG%	52.1 #11
39.2 #27	Opponent 3-point %	37.3 #23
14.6 #22	Turnovers forced	15.7 #14
73.7 #12	Defensive rebound rate	75.8 #7
8.0 #21	Steals per game	9.2 #10
2.3 #30	Blocks per game	7.0 #1

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Kings

0-6 overall · 0-6 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Grizzlies105–136
L@ Pelicans120–132
L@ Spurs103–130
Lvs Grizzlies112–123
Lvs Trail Blazers120–128

A week or more of rest.

Spurs

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Timberwolves121–111
W@ Jazz117–111
Wvs Kings130–103
W@ Mavericks122–106
Lvs Rockets110–114

A week or more of rest.

Kings @ Spurs

What could decide it: SA has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Kings

Spurs

Spurs has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Kings

Spurs