New Orleans Pelicans at Denver Nuggets: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Apr 6, 9:00 PM ETBall Arena · at Nuggets · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Pelicans and Nuggets
NO	This season	DEN
2-4	Record	3-2
4-2	ATS	2-3
4-2	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DEN 122–116 · win probability DEN 67%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 237.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

NO 2, DEN 4 · 2026-27 so far

DENBig

DEN offense vs NO defense

Offense 8th of 30 against a defense 24th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

NO has played the 28th-hardest schedule, DEN the 18th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 105 possessions: NO plays 108.0 a game (2nd fastest), DEN 102.1 (21st). Faster games mean more points

NOSmall

Recent form

Last 5: NO 4-1 ATS, margin +2.8; DEN 2-3 ATS, margin -1.2

NOSmall

NO offense vs DEN defense

Offense 13th of 30 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings

DENSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: NO 35.3, DEN 31.3. Allowed: NO 30.6, DEN 21.5

DENSmall

Home court

DEN at home. This season: DEN 1-1 at home, NO 0-2 away

DENSmall

Three-pointers

NO hits 31.2% and allows 30.5%; DEN hits 37.4% and allows 35.0%. Threes are 32.8% and 40.9% of their shots

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NO 24.3%, DEN 27.5%. Defensive: NO 76.4%, DEN 70.5%

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NO 17.4%, DEN 16.4%. Forced: NO 16.3%, DEN 15.9%

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: NO 55.1 and allows 54.2; DEN 54.7 and allows 54.2

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NO 100%, DEN 100%. Transfers in: NO 0, DEN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NO WWLWW	4-2	67%	2-0	—
DEN LLLWW	2-3	40%	0-2	—

Venue/role: NO away; DEN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NO OOUOU	4-2	67%	2-4
DEN UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NOlast 6	2-4 33%	4-2 67%	4-2 67%
DENlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Pelicans

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 8	@ UTAH	L119–120WO
Apr 11	vs CHI	L118–134LO

Nuggets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 8	vs LAC	L114–115LO
Apr 9	@ SA	W128–118WO
Apr 11	vs OKC	L84–96LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 20 since 2021-22

NO 5–15 DENDEN leads · 20 games since 2021-22 · DEN has won the last 8 meetings · NO 9-11 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 28, 2026-27	DEN 104 @ NO 91	NO +4.5	DEN W
Oct 24, 2026-27	NO 135 @ DEN 141	DEN -11.5	NO W
Jan 13, 2025-26	DEN 122 @ NO 116	NO +2.5	DEN W
Nov 19, 2025-26	DEN 125 @ NO 118	NO +10.5	NO W
Oct 29, 2025-26	NO 88 @ DEN 122	DEN -11.5	DEN W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Pelicans

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-267%

L W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-267%

O O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsIND	L 120-123	+2.5	L −0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	@UTAH	L 119-120	+1.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 239
Oct 24	@DEN	L 135-141	+11.5	W +5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 28	vsDEN	L 91-104	+4.5	L −8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 29	vsSAC	W 132-120	-6.5	W +5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	vsATL	W 121-99	+5.5	W +27.5	239.5	U 220

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

IND

L 120-123

−0.5

UTAH

L 119-120

+0.5

DEN

L 135-141

+5.5

DEN

L 91-104

−8.5

SAC

W 132-120

+5.5

ATL

W 121-99

+27.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

IND

L 120-123

+4.5

UTAH

L 119-120

+0.5

DEN

L 135-141

+36.5

DEN

L 91-104

−46.5

SAC

W 132-120

+17.5

ATL

W 121-99

−19.5

over 4under 2avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nuggets

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@OKC	L 84-96	+7.5	L −4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 24	vsNO	W 141-135	-11.5	L −5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 26	vsGS	L 114-134	-6.5	L −26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@NO	W 104-91	-4.5	W +8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 30	@PHX	W 127-120	-4.5	W +2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−4.5

W 141-135

−5.5

L 114-134

−26.5

W 104-91

+8.5

PHX

W 127-120

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−56.5

W 141-135

+36.5

L 114-134

+11.5

W 104-91

−46.5

PHX

W 127-120

+15.5

over 3under 2avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nuggets has the better starters

Position by position: Pelicans 0, Nuggets 3, even 2

PelicansBetterNuggets

G D. Murray17.8 pts · 5.8 reb · 6 ast Score 45

Even

G J. Murray25.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 5.6 ast Score 40

G J. Fears13 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 19

DENBig

G C. Braun15.4 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 66

F Z. Williamson20.7 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.5 ast Score 81

Even

F A. Gordon12.8 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 74

F H. Jones6.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 75

DENSmall

F C. Johnson8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 2 ast Score 98

C D. Jordan6 pts · 6.5 reb · 1 ast Score 52

DENSmall

C N. Jokic21.2 pts · 9.8 reb · 9.2 ast Score 86

PelicansBetterNuggets

NO offense13th of 30 · +1.1

NOSmall

DEN defense19th of 30 · -0.9

NO defense24th of 30 · -3.7

DENBig

DEN offense8th of 30 · +2.5

Backcourt-1.6 · 2 players

DENBig

Backcourt+7.7 · 2 players

Frontcourt+15.7 · 3 players

DENBig

Frontcourt+35.7 · 3 players

Bench-16.0 · 5 players

DENBig

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestNO betterDEN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Pelicans

Guards

D. Murray32 minJ. Fears25 minS. Bey25 minB. McGowens21 minB. Mathurin18 minA. Johnson10 min

Forwards

Z. Williamson32 minH. Jones21 minJ. Reese31 minT. Watford18 minK. Matkovic16 min

Centers

D. Jordan17 minD. Queen24 min

Out

J. PooleOutT. MurphyDay-To-DayY. MissiOut

Nuggets

Guards

J. Murray38 minC. Braun36 minD. DeRozan26 minR. Nembhard20 minT. Jones10 min

Forwards

A. Gordon30 minC. Johnson23 minT. Brazile23 minC. Whitmore17 minB. Hopkins17 minM. Bagley12 min

Centers

N. Jokic37 min

Out

A. DialloOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NO119.7 #7

DEN114.0 #15

Points per possession

NO1.10 #15

DEN1.13 #9

Pace (possessions)

NO108.0 #2

DEN102.1 #21

Shooting

Effective FG%

NO55.1 #9

DEN54.7 #11

3-point %

NO31.2 #25

DEN37.4 #7

3-point attempt rate

NO32.8 #30

DEN40.9 #22

Free throw rate

NO35.3 #4

DEN31.3 #11

Possessions

Turnover rate

NO17.4 #26

DEN16.4 #21

Offensive rebound rate

NO24.3 #25

DEN27.5 #15

Assists per game

NO25.5 #21

DEN26.8 #14

Defense

Points allowed

NO117.8 #24

DEN115.2 #18

Points allowed per possession

NO1.09 #16

DEN1.12 #20

Opponent effective FG%

NO54.2 #21

DEN54.2 #20

Opponent 3-point %

NO30.5 #5

DEN35.0 #15

Turnovers forced

NO16.3 #10

DEN15.9 #11

Defensive rebound rate

NO76.4 #6

DEN70.5 #22

Steals per game

NO13.7 #1

DEN10.2 #5

Blocks per game

NO4.8 #16

DEN4.4 #18

NO		DEN
Scoring
119.7 #7	Points per game	114.0 #15
1.10 #15	Points per possession	1.13 #9
108.0 #2	Pace (possessions)	102.1 #21
Shooting
55.1 #9	Effective FG%	54.7 #11
31.2 #25	3-point %	37.4 #7
32.8 #30	3-point attempt rate	40.9 #22
35.3 #4	Free throw rate	31.3 #11
Possessions
17.4 #26	Turnover rate	16.4 #21
24.3 #25	Offensive rebound rate	27.5 #15
25.5 #21	Assists per game	26.8 #14
Defense
117.8 #24	Points allowed	115.2 #18
1.09 #16	Points allowed per possession	1.12 #20
54.2 #21	Opponent effective FG%	54.2 #20
30.5 #5	Opponent 3-point %	35.0 #15
16.3 #10	Turnovers forced	15.9 #11
76.4 #6	Defensive rebound rate	70.5 #22
13.7 #1	Steals per game	10.2 #5
4.8 #16	Blocks per game	4.4 #18

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pelicans

2-4 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hawks121–99
Wvs Kings132–120
Lvs Nuggets91–104
L@ Nuggets135–141
L@ Jazz119–120

A week or more of rest.

Nuggets

3-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Suns127–120
W@ Pelicans104–91
Lvs Warriors114–134
Wvs Pelicans141–135
L@ Thunder84–96

A week or more of rest.

Pelicans @ Nuggets

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Pelicans

Nuggets

Nuggets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Pelicans

Nuggets