Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Apr 11, 8:30 PM ETBall Arena · at Nuggets · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Thunder and Nuggets
OKC	This season	DEN
4-2	Record	3-2
3-3	ATS	2-3
1-5	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DEN 114–113 · win probability DEN 53%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 226.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

OKC 3, DEN 3 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

OKC has played the 5th-hardest schedule, DEN the 18th. A record against a soft schedule means less

DENBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: OKC 21.8, DEN 31.3. Allowed: OKC 23.4, DEN 21.5

DENBig

Three-pointers

OKC hits 30.9% and allows 35.3%; DEN hits 37.4% and allows 35.0%. Threes are 35.8% and 40.9% of their shots

OKCSmall

DEN offense vs OKC defense

Offense 8th of 30 against a defense 2nd, on the model’s ratings

OKCSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: OKC 14.5%, DEN 16.4%. Forced: OKC 15.8%, DEN 15.9%

OKCSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: OKC 28.5%, DEN 27.5%. Defensive: OKC 71.4%, DEN 70.5%

DENSmall

Home court

DEN at home. This season: DEN 1-1 at home, OKC 1-2 away

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: OKC plays 101.1 a game (27th fastest), DEN 102.1 (21st). Faster games mean more points

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: OKC 49.5 and allows 51.0; DEN 54.7 and allows 54.2

Even

OKC offense vs DEN defense

Offense 18th of 30 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Recent form

Last 5: OKC 2-3 ATS, margin -3.0; DEN 2-3 ATS, margin -1.2

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: OKC 100%, DEN 100%. Transfers in: OKC 0, DEN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OKC WLWLL	3-3	50%	1-2	—
DEN LLLWW	2-3	40%	0-2	—

Venue/role: OKC away; DEN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
OKC UUOUU	1-5	17%	4-2
DEN UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OKClast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%
DENlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Thunder

No more games listed yet.

Nuggets

No more games listed yet.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 28 since 2021-22

OKC 16–12 DENOKC leads · 28 games since 2021-22 · OKC 14-14 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 22, 2026-27	DEN 84 @ OKC 96	OKC -7.5	OKC W
Apr 10, 2025-26	OKC 107 @ DEN 127	DEN -2.5	DEN W
Mar 9, 2025-26	DEN 126 @ OKC 129	OKC -3.5	DEN W
Feb 27, 2025-26	DEN 121 @ OKC 127	OKC -6.5	DEN W
Feb 1, 2025-26	OKC 121 @ DEN 111	DEN +7.5	OKC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Thunder

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −12.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@SA	W 116-104	-1.5	W +10.5	229.5	U 220
Oct 22	vsDEN	W 96-84	-7.5	W +4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 25	vsLAC	W 108-101	-16.5	L −9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 26	vsPHX	W 125-114	-8.5	W +2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 28	@DAL	L 96-120	-4.5	L −28.5	227.5	U 216
Oct 31	@HOU	L 98-119	+2.5	L −18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 116-104

+10.5

DEN

W 96-84

+4.5

LAC

W 108-101

−9.5

PHX

W 125-114

+2.5

DAL

L 96-120

−28.5

HOU

L 98-119

−18.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 116-104

−9.5

DEN

W 96-84

−56.5

LAC

W 108-101

−14.5

PHX

W 125-114

+17.5

DAL

L 96-120

−11.5

HOU

L 98-119

−2.5

over 1under 5avg −12.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nuggets

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@OKC	L 84-96	+7.5	L −4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 24	vsNO	W 141-135	-11.5	L −5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 26	vsGS	L 114-134	-6.5	L −26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@NO	W 104-91	-4.5	W +8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 30	@PHX	W 127-120	-4.5	W +2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−4.5

W 141-135

−5.5

L 114-134

−26.5

W 104-91

+8.5

PHX

W 127-120

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−56.5

W 141-135

+36.5

L 114-134

+11.5

W 104-91

−46.5

PHX

W 127-120

+15.5

over 3under 2avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Thunder 2, Nuggets 2, even 1

ThunderBetterNuggets

G S. Gilgeous-Alexander26 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 88

OKCBig

G J. Murray25.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 5.6 ast Score 40

G A. Mitchell16.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 99

OKCSmall

G C. Braun15.4 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 66

G J. McCain10.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 8

DENBig

F A. Gordon12.8 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 74

G K. Williams5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 40

DENBig

F C. Johnson8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 2 ast Score 98

C I. Hartenstein9.5 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 88

Even

C N. Jokic21.2 pts · 9.8 reb · 9.2 ast Score 86

ThunderBetterNuggets

OKC offense18th of 30 · -1.1

Even

DEN defense19th of 30 · -0.9

OKC defense2nd of 30 · +6.2

OKCSmall

DEN offense8th of 30 · +2.5

Backcourt+24.2 · 4 players

OKCBig

Backcourt+7.7 · 2 players

Frontcourt+12.0 · 1 player

DENBig

Frontcourt+35.7 · 3 players

Bench-4.1 · 5 players

Even

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestOKC betterDEN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Thunder

Guards

S. Gilgeous-Alexander33 minA. Mitchell26 minJ. McCain25 minK. Williams14 minJ. Dix18 minB. Stirtz16 min

Forwards

J. Williams18 minB. Barnhizer9 min

Centers

I. Hartenstein24 minA. Mara18 min

Out

A. CarusoOutC. HolmgrenOutJ. WilliamsOutC. WallaceOut

Nuggets

Guards

J. Murray38 minC. Braun36 minD. DeRozan26 minR. Nembhard20 minT. Jones10 min

Forwards

A. Gordon30 minC. Johnson23 minT. Brazile23 minC. Whitmore17 minB. Hopkins17 minM. Bagley12 min

Centers

N. Jokic37 min

Out

A. DialloOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

OKC106.5 #29

DEN114.0 #15

Points per possession

OKC1.05 #23

DEN1.13 #9

Pace (possessions)

OKC101.1 #27

DEN102.1 #21

Shooting

Effective FG%

OKC49.5 #28

DEN54.7 #11

3-point %

OKC30.9 #26

DEN37.4 #7

3-point attempt rate

OKC35.8 #29

DEN40.9 #22

Free throw rate

OKC21.8 #28

DEN31.3 #11

Possessions

Turnover rate

OKC14.5 #7

DEN16.4 #21

Offensive rebound rate

OKC28.5 #10

DEN27.5 #15

Assists per game

OKC21.7 #29

DEN26.8 #14

Defense

Points allowed

OKC107.0 #5

DEN115.2 #18

Points allowed per possession

OKC1.06 #7

DEN1.12 #20

Opponent effective FG%

OKC51.0 #6

DEN54.2 #20

Opponent 3-point %

OKC35.3 #17

DEN35.0 #15

Turnovers forced

OKC15.8 #13

DEN15.9 #11

Defensive rebound rate

OKC71.4 #18

DEN70.5 #22

Steals per game

OKC8.3 #20

DEN10.2 #5

Blocks per game

OKC6.3 #7

DEN4.4 #18

OKC		DEN
Scoring
106.5 #29	Points per game	114.0 #15
1.05 #23	Points per possession	1.13 #9
101.1 #27	Pace (possessions)	102.1 #21
Shooting
49.5 #28	Effective FG%	54.7 #11
30.9 #26	3-point %	37.4 #7
35.8 #29	3-point attempt rate	40.9 #22
21.8 #28	Free throw rate	31.3 #11
Possessions
14.5 #7	Turnover rate	16.4 #21
28.5 #10	Offensive rebound rate	27.5 #15
21.7 #29	Assists per game	26.8 #14
Defense
107.0 #5	Points allowed	115.2 #18
1.06 #7	Points allowed per possession	1.12 #20
51.0 #6	Opponent effective FG%	54.2 #20
35.3 #17	Opponent 3-point %	35.0 #15
15.8 #13	Turnovers forced	15.9 #11
71.4 #18	Defensive rebound rate	70.5 #22
8.3 #20	Steals per game	10.2 #5
6.3 #7	Blocks per game	4.4 #18

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Thunder

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Rockets98–119
L@ Mavericks96–120
Wvs Suns125–114
Wvs Clippers108–101
Wvs Nuggets96–84

A week or more of rest.

Nuggets

3-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Suns127–120
W@ Pelicans104–91
Lvs Warriors114–134
Wvs Pelicans141–135
L@ Thunder84–96

A week or more of rest.

Thunder @ Nuggets

What could decide it

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Thunder

Nuggets

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Thunder

Nuggets