LA Clippers at Denver Nuggets: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Apr 8, 9:00 PM ETBall Arena · at Nuggets · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Clippers and Nuggets
LAC	This season	DEN
1-5	Record	3-2
3-3	ATS	2-3
3-3	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DEN 117–112 · win probability DEN 64%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 229.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

LAC 0, DEN 6 · 2026-27 so far

DENBig

LAC offense vs DEN defense

Offense 28th of 30 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

LAC has played the 10th-hardest schedule, DEN the 18th. A record against a soft schedule means less

DENSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: LAC 52.9 and allows 56.9; DEN 54.7 and allows 54.2

DENSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: LAC 28.0, DEN 31.3. Allowed: LAC 24.7, DEN 21.5

DENSmall

Three-pointers

LAC hits 38.6% and allows 38.2%; DEN hits 37.4% and allows 35.0%. Threes are 42.3% and 40.9% of their shots

DENSmall

Home court

DEN at home. This season: DEN 1-1 at home, LAC 0-4 away

DENSmall

DEN offense vs LAC defense

Offense 8th of 30 against a defense 12th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LAC 20.4%, DEN 16.4%. Forced: LAC 17.0%, DEN 15.9%

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LAC 26.5%, DEN 27.5%. Defensive: LAC 70.9%, DEN 70.5%

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: LAC plays 101.7 a game (23rd fastest), DEN 102.1 (21st). Faster games mean more points

Even

Recent form

Last 5: LAC 2-3 ATS, margin -13.8; DEN 2-3 ATS, margin -1.2

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LAC 100%, DEN 100%. Transfers in: LAC 0, DEN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAC WWLLL	3-3	50%	2-2	—
DEN LLLWW	2-3	40%	0-2	—

Venue/role: LAC away; DEN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAC OUUOO	3-3	50%	1-5
DEN UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAClast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
DENlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Clippers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 9	@ UTAH	W115–103WU
Apr 11	vs SAC	W121–96WU

Nuggets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 9	@ SA	W128–118WO
Apr 11	vs OKC	L84–96LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 26 since 2021-22

LAC 9–17 DENDEN leads · 26 games since 2021-22 · LAC 13-13 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 19, 2025-26	DEN 114 @ LAC 115	LAC +4.5	LAC W
Jan 30, 2025-26	LAC 109 @ DEN 122	DEN +2.5	DEN W
Nov 12, 2025-26	DEN 130 @ LAC 116	LAC +4.5	DEN W
May 3, 2024-25	LAC 101 @ DEN 120	DEN -1.5	DEN W
May 1, 2024-25	DEN 105 @ LAC 111	LAC -5.5	LAC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Clippers

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsSAC	W 121-96	-5.5	W +19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	@LAL	L 117-125	+8.5	W +0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@OKC	L 101-108	+16.5	W +9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 28	vsLAL	L 87-103	-1.5	L −17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@MIN	L 101-127	+6.5	L −19.5	222.5	O 228
Nov 1	@GS	L 112-124	+1.5	L −10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

+19.5

LAL

L 117-125

+0.5

OKC

L 101-108

+9.5

LAL

L 87-103

−17.5

MIN

L 101-127

−19.5

L 112-124

−10.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

−9.5

LAL

L 117-125

+16.5

OKC

L 101-108

−14.5

LAL

L 87-103

−34.5

MIN

L 101-127

+5.5

L 112-124

+15.5

over 3under 3avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nuggets

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@OKC	L 84-96	+7.5	L −4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 24	vsNO	W 141-135	-11.5	L −5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 26	vsGS	L 114-134	-6.5	L −26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@NO	W 104-91	-4.5	W +8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 30	@PHX	W 127-120	-4.5	W +2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−4.5

W 141-135

−5.5

L 114-134

−26.5

W 104-91

+8.5

PHX

W 127-120

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−56.5

W 141-135

+36.5

L 114-134

+11.5

W 104-91

−46.5

PHX

W 127-120

+15.5

over 3under 2avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nuggets has the better starters

Position by position: Clippers 0, Nuggets 4, even 1

ClippersBetterNuggets

G D. Garland20.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 6.3 ast Score 27

Even

G J. Murray25.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 5.6 ast Score 40

G K. Dunn8.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 25

DENBig

G C. Braun15.4 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 66

G K. Sanders8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast Score 31

DENBig

F A. Gordon12.8 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 74

F R. Hachimura13.4 pts · 6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 83

DENSmall

F C. Johnson8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 2 ast Score 98

F I. Jackson8 pts · 6.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 8

DENBig

C N. Jokic21.2 pts · 9.8 reb · 9.2 ast Score 86

ClippersBetterNuggets

LAC offense28th of 30 · -3.5

DENSmall

DEN defense19th of 30 · -0.9

LAC defense12th of 30 · +1.7

Even

DEN offense8th of 30 · +2.5

Backcourt-5.9 · 3 players

DENBig

Backcourt+7.7 · 2 players

Frontcourt+3.6 · 2 players

DENBig

Frontcourt+35.7 · 3 players

Bench+3.5 · 5 players

LACBig

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestLAC betterDEN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Clippers

Guards

D. Garland33 minK. Dunn30 minK. Sanders23 minK. Wagler25 minJ. Pickett16 minG. Dick14 min

Forwards

R. Hachimura30 minI. Jackson22 minB. Miller8 minN. Martinelli5 min

Centers

B. Lopez22 min

Out

D. JonesDay-To-Day

Nuggets

Guards

J. Murray38 minC. Braun36 minD. DeRozan26 minR. Nembhard20 minT. Jones10 min

Forwards

A. Gordon30 minC. Johnson23 minT. Brazile23 minC. Whitmore17 minB. Hopkins17 minM. Bagley12 min

Centers

N. Jokic37 min

Out

A. DialloOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LAC106.5 #28

DEN114.0 #15

Points per possession

LAC1.04 #27

DEN1.13 #9

Pace (possessions)

LAC101.7 #23

DEN102.1 #21

Shooting

Effective FG%

LAC52.9 #18

DEN54.7 #11

3-point %

LAC38.6 #5

DEN37.4 #7

3-point attempt rate

LAC42.3 #17

DEN40.9 #22

Free throw rate

LAC28.0 #17

DEN31.3 #11

Possessions

Turnover rate

LAC20.4 #30

DEN16.4 #21

Offensive rebound rate

LAC26.5 #21

DEN27.5 #15

Assists per game

LAC24.3 #26

DEN26.8 #14

Defense

Points allowed

LAC113.8 #15

DEN115.2 #18

Points allowed per possession

LAC1.13 #22

DEN1.12 #20

Opponent effective FG%

LAC56.9 #28

DEN54.2 #20

Opponent 3-point %

LAC38.2 #26

DEN35.0 #15

Turnovers forced

LAC17.0 #8

DEN15.9 #11

Defensive rebound rate

LAC70.9 #20

DEN70.5 #22

Steals per game

LAC11.3 #3

DEN10.2 #5

Blocks per game

LAC4.2 #22

DEN4.4 #18

LAC		DEN
Scoring
106.5 #28	Points per game	114.0 #15
1.04 #27	Points per possession	1.13 #9
101.7 #23	Pace (possessions)	102.1 #21
Shooting
52.9 #18	Effective FG%	54.7 #11
38.6 #5	3-point %	37.4 #7
42.3 #17	3-point attempt rate	40.9 #22
28.0 #17	Free throw rate	31.3 #11
Possessions
20.4 #30	Turnover rate	16.4 #21
26.5 #21	Offensive rebound rate	27.5 #15
24.3 #26	Assists per game	26.8 #14
Defense
113.8 #15	Points allowed	115.2 #18
1.13 #22	Points allowed per possession	1.12 #20
56.9 #28	Opponent effective FG%	54.2 #20
38.2 #26	Opponent 3-point %	35.0 #15
17.0 #8	Turnovers forced	15.9 #11
70.9 #20	Defensive rebound rate	70.5 #22
11.3 #3	Steals per game	10.2 #5
4.2 #22	Blocks per game	4.4 #18

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Clippers

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Warriors112–124
L@ Timberwolves101–127
Lvs Lakers87–103
L@ Thunder101–108
L@ Lakers117–125

A week or more of rest.

Nuggets

3-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Suns127–120
W@ Pelicans104–91
Lvs Warriors114–134
Wvs Pelicans141–135
L@ Thunder84–96

A week or more of rest.

Clippers @ Nuggets

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Clippers

Nuggets

Nuggets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Clippers

Nuggets