Sacramento Kings at LA Clippers: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Apr 11, 8:30 PM ETIntuit Dome · at Clippers · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Kings and Clippers
SAC	This season	LAC
0-6	Record	1-5
1-5	ATS	3-3
5-1	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LAC 121–109 · win probability LAC 81%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 230.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LAC has more of the edges

SAC 0, LAC 4 · 2026-27 so far

LACBig

SAC offense vs LAC defense

Offense 27th of 30 against a defense 12th, on the model’s ratings

LACBig

Three-pointers

SAC hits 30.4% and allows 39.2%; LAC hits 38.6% and allows 38.2%. Threes are 38.0% and 42.3% of their shots

LACBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: SAC 26.4, LAC 28.0. Allowed: SAC 31.2, LAC 24.7

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: SAC plays 106.0 a game (6th fastest), LAC 101.7 (23rd). Faster games mean more points

LACSmall

Home court

LAC at home. This season: LAC 1-1 at home, SAC 0-4 away

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: SAC 51.0 and allows 60.4; LAC 52.9 and allows 56.9

Even

Recent form

Last 5: SAC 1-4 ATS, margin -17.8; LAC 2-3 ATS, margin -13.8

Context

Schedule so far

SAC has played the 8th-hardest schedule, LAC the 10th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SAC 15.9%, LAC 20.4%. Forced: SAC 14.6%, LAC 17.0%

Even

LAC offense vs SAC defense

Offense 28th of 30 against a defense 29th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SAC 22.9%, LAC 26.5%. Defensive: SAC 73.7%, LAC 70.9%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SAC 100%, LAC 100%. Transfers in: SAC 0, LAC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SAC WLLLL	1-5	17%	0-4	—
LAC WWLLL	3-3	50%	1-1	—

Venue/role: SAC away; LAC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SAC OOOOO	5-1	83%	0-6
LAC OUUOO	3-3	50%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SAClast 6	0-6 0%	1-5 17%	5-1 83%
LAClast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Kings

No more games listed yet.

Clippers

No more games listed yet.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 21 since 2021-22

SAC 8–13 LACLAC leads · 21 games since 2021-22 · LAC has won the last 2 meetings · SAC 11-10 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 21, 2026-27	SAC 96 @ LAC 121	LAC -5.5	LAC W
Apr 5, 2025-26	LAC 138 @ SAC 109	SAC +13.5	LAC W
Mar 14, 2025-26	SAC 118 @ LAC 109	LAC -13.5	SAC W
Feb 6, 2025-26	LAC 114 @ SAC 111	SAC +3.5	SAC W
Dec 30, 2025-26	SAC 90 @ LAC 131	LAC -9.5	LAC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Kings

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −10.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAC	L 96-121	+5.5	L −19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	vsPOR	L 120-128	+9.5	W +1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 25	vsMEM	L 112-123	+3.5	L −7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 27	@SA	L 103-130	+19.5	L −7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 29	@NO	L 120-132	+6.5	L −5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	@MEM	L 105-136	+7.5	L −23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−19.5

POR

L 120-128

+1.5

MEM

L 112-123

−7.5

L 103-130

−7.5

L 120-132

−5.5

MEM

L 105-136

−23.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −10.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−9.5

POR

L 120-128

+16.5

MEM

L 112-123

+0.5

L 103-130

+0.5

L 120-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-136

+11.5

over 5under 1avg +6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Clippers

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsSAC	W 121-96	-5.5	W +19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	@LAL	L 117-125	+8.5	W +0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@OKC	L 101-108	+16.5	W +9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 28	vsLAL	L 87-103	-1.5	L −17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@MIN	L 101-127	+6.5	L −19.5	222.5	O 228
Nov 1	@GS	L 112-124	+1.5	L −10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

+19.5

LAL

L 117-125

+0.5

OKC

L 101-108

+9.5

LAL

L 87-103

−17.5

MIN

L 101-127

−19.5

L 112-124

−10.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

−9.5

LAL

L 117-125

+16.5

OKC

L 101-108

−14.5

LAL

L 87-103

−34.5

MIN

L 101-127

+5.5

L 112-124

+15.5

over 3under 3avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Clippers has the better starters

Position by position: Kings 0, Clippers 2, even 3

KingsBetterClippers

G D. Acuff26.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 6.3 ast Score 4

LACSmall

G D. Garland20.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 6.3 ast Score 27

F D. Sabonis16 pts · 15.8 reb · 7.3 ast Score 26

Even

G K. Dunn8.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 25

F D. Hunter14 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 38

Even

G K. Sanders8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast Score 31

F P. Achiuwa12.5 pts · 6 reb · 1 ast Score 7

LACBig

F R. Hachimura13.4 pts · 6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 83

F L. Black7.1 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 13

Even

F I. Jackson8 pts · 6.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 8

KingsBetterClippers

SAC offense27th of 30 · -3.0

LACBig

LAC defense12th of 30 · +1.7

SAC defense29th of 30 · -7.9

Even

LAC offense28th of 30 · -3.5

Backcourt-13.7 · 1 player

LACBig

Backcourt-5.9 · 3 players

Frontcourt-18.6 · 4 players

LACBig

Frontcourt+3.6 · 2 players

Bench-13.2 · 5 players

LACBig

Bench+3.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestSAC betterLAC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Kings

Guards

D. Acuff37 minE. Sharp18 minD. Plowden14 minM. Monk12 minN. Clifford8 minA. FlaglerNew

Forwards

D. Sabonis37 minD. Hunter29 minP. Achiuwa29 minL. Black29 minJ. Mogbo17 minA. Karaban10 min

Out

Z. LaVineDay-To-DayK. MurrayOut

Clippers

Guards

D. Garland33 minK. Dunn30 minK. Sanders23 minK. Wagler25 minJ. Pickett16 minG. Dick14 min

Forwards

R. Hachimura30 minI. Jackson22 minB. Miller8 minN. Martinelli5 min

Centers

B. Lopez22 min

Out

D. JonesDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SAC109.3 #22

LAC106.5 #28

Points per possession

SAC1.03 #28

LAC1.04 #27

Pace (possessions)

SAC106.0 #6

LAC101.7 #23

Shooting

Effective FG%

SAC51.0 #23

LAC52.9 #18

3-point %

SAC30.4 #27

LAC38.6 #5

3-point attempt rate

SAC38.0 #27

LAC42.3 #17

Free throw rate

SAC26.4 #20

LAC28.0 #17

Possessions

Turnover rate

SAC15.9 #19

LAC20.4 #30

Offensive rebound rate

SAC22.9 #28

LAC26.5 #21

Assists per game

SAC24.5 #23

LAC24.3 #26

Defense

Points allowed

SAC128.3 #29

LAC113.8 #15

Points allowed per possession

SAC1.21 #29

LAC1.13 #22

Opponent effective FG%

SAC60.4 #30

LAC56.9 #28

Opponent 3-point %

SAC39.2 #27

LAC38.2 #26

Turnovers forced

SAC14.6 #22

LAC17.0 #8

Defensive rebound rate

SAC73.7 #12

LAC70.9 #20

Steals per game

SAC8.0 #21

LAC11.3 #3

Blocks per game

SAC2.3 #30

LAC4.2 #22

SAC		LAC
Scoring
109.3 #22	Points per game	106.5 #28
1.03 #28	Points per possession	1.04 #27
106.0 #6	Pace (possessions)	101.7 #23
Shooting
51.0 #23	Effective FG%	52.9 #18
30.4 #27	3-point %	38.6 #5
38.0 #27	3-point attempt rate	42.3 #17
26.4 #20	Free throw rate	28.0 #17
Possessions
15.9 #19	Turnover rate	20.4 #30
22.9 #28	Offensive rebound rate	26.5 #21
24.5 #23	Assists per game	24.3 #26
Defense
128.3 #29	Points allowed	113.8 #15
1.21 #29	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #22
60.4 #30	Opponent effective FG%	56.9 #28
39.2 #27	Opponent 3-point %	38.2 #26
14.6 #22	Turnovers forced	17.0 #8
73.7 #12	Defensive rebound rate	70.9 #20
8.0 #21	Steals per game	11.3 #3
2.3 #30	Blocks per game	4.2 #22

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Kings

0-6 overall · 0-6 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Grizzlies105–136
L@ Pelicans120–132
L@ Spurs103–130
Lvs Grizzlies112–123
Lvs Trail Blazers120–128

A week or more of rest.

Clippers

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Warriors112–124
L@ Timberwolves101–127
Lvs Lakers87–103
L@ Thunder101–108
L@ Lakers117–125

A week or more of rest.

Kings @ Clippers

What could decide it: LAC has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Kings

Clippers

Clippers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Kings

Clippers