Sacramento Kings at Houston Rockets: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Apr 7, 8:30 PM ETToyota Center (Houston) · at Rockets · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Kings and Rockets
SAC	This season	HOU
0-6	Record	6-1
1-5	ATS	6-1
5-1	O/U	5-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HOU 126–105 · win probability HOU 93%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

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model 230.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

SAC 0, HOU 9 · 2026-27 so far

HOUBig

Three-pointers

SAC hits 30.4% and allows 39.2%; HOU hits 39.0% and allows 30.2%. Threes are 38.0% and 38.1% of their shots

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SAC offense vs HOU defense

Offense 27th of 30 against a defense 4th, on the model’s ratings

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HOU offense vs SAC defense

Offense 6th of 30 against a defense 29th, on the model’s ratings

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Shooting

Effective FG%: SAC 51.0 and allows 60.4; HOU 56.6 and allows 52.1

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Free throws

Free throw rate: SAC 26.4, HOU 31.9. Allowed: SAC 31.2, HOU 24.7

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Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SAC 22.9%, HOU 32.4%. Defensive: SAC 73.7%, HOU 73.2%

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: SAC plays 106.0 a game (6th fastest), HOU 101.6 (24th). Faster games mean more points

HOUBig

Recent form

Last 5: SAC 1-4 ATS, margin -17.8; HOU 4-1 ATS, margin +13.0

HOUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SAC 15.9%, HOU 15.1%. Forced: SAC 14.6%, HOU 15.7%

HOUSmall

Home court

HOU at home. This season: HOU 3-0 at home, SAC 0-4 away

Context

Schedule so far

SAC has played the 8th-hardest schedule, HOU the 12th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SAC 100%, HOU 100%. Transfers in: SAC 0, HOU 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SAC WLLLL	1-5	17%	0-4	—
HOU WWWLW	6-1	86%	3-0	—

Venue/role: SAC away; HOU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SAC OOOOO	5-1	83%	0-6
HOU OOOOU	5-2	71%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SAClast 6	0-6 0%	1-5 17%	5-1 83%
HOUlast 7	6-1 86%	6-1 86%	5-2 71%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Kings

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 9	vs DAL	W130–121WO
Apr 11	@ LAC	L96–121LU

Rockets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 9	vs POR	W106–99WU
Apr 11	@ MIN	L132–136LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

SAC 12–6 HOUSAC leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · SAC 10-7-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 25, 2025-26	SAC 97 @ HOU 128	HOU -13.5	HOU W
Jan 11, 2025-26	HOU 98 @ SAC 111	SAC +14.5	SAC W
Dec 21, 2025-26	HOU 124 @ SAC 125	SAC +12.5	SAC W
Dec 3, 2025-26	SAC 95 @ HOU 121	HOU -15.5	HOU W
Mar 1, 2024-25	SAC 113 @ HOU 103	HOU -3.5	SAC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Kings

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −10.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAC	L 96-121	+5.5	L −19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	vsPOR	L 120-128	+9.5	W +1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 25	vsMEM	L 112-123	+3.5	L −7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 27	@SA	L 103-130	+19.5	L −7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 29	@NO	L 120-132	+6.5	L −5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	@MEM	L 105-136	+7.5	L −23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−19.5

POR

L 120-128

+1.5

MEM

L 112-123

−7.5

L 103-130

−7.5

L 120-132

−5.5

MEM

L 105-136

−23.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −10.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−9.5

POR

L 120-128

+16.5

MEM

L 112-123

+0.5

L 103-130

+0.5

L 120-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-136

+11.5

over 5under 1avg +6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Rockets

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +8.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-2

71% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-271%

O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsDAL	W 128-110	-9.5	W +8.5	230.5	O 238
Oct 23	@SA	W 114-110	+4.5	W +8.5	224.5	U 224
Oct 24	@ATL	W 121-114	-1.5	W +5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	vsATL	W 120-110	-4.5	W +5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	@MIL	W 132-100	-8.5	W +23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 30	@DAL	L 111-116	-5.5	L −10.5	223.5	O 227
Oct 31	vsOKC	W 119-98	-2.5	W +18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+8.5

W 114-110

+8.5

ATL

W 121-114

+5.5

ATL

W 120-110

+5.5

MIL

W 132-100

+23.5

DAL

L 111-116

−10.5

OKC

W 119-98

+18.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+7.5

W 114-110

−0.5

ATL

W 121-114

+7.5

ATL

W 120-110

+1.5

MIL

W 132-100

+5.5

DAL

L 111-116

+3.5

OKC

W 119-98

−2.5

over 5under 2avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Rockets has the better starters

Position by position: Kings 0, Rockets 5, even 0

KingsBetterRockets

G D. Acuff26.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 6.3 ast Score 4

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G A. Thompson16.3 pts · 6.6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 60

F D. Sabonis16 pts · 15.8 reb · 7.3 ast Score 26

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G F. VanVleet13 pts · 4 reb · 6.4 ast Score 94

F D. Hunter14 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 38

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F J. Smith19 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.7 ast Score 79

F P. Achiuwa12.5 pts · 6 reb · 1 ast Score 7

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F K. Durant22 pts · 5.6 reb · 3.3 ast Score 82

F L. Black7.1 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 13

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C A. Sengun22.8 pts · 9 reb · 7.4 ast Score 84

KingsBetterRockets

SAC offense27th of 30 · -3.0

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HOU defense4th of 30 · +5.2

SAC defense29th of 30 · -7.9

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HOU offense6th of 30 · +2.9

Backcourt-13.7 · 1 player

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Backcourt+19.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt-18.6 · 4 players

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Frontcourt+30.0 · 3 players

Bench-13.2 · 5 players

HOUBig

Bench+16.2 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestSAC betterHOU betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Kings

Guards

D. Acuff37 minE. Sharp18 minD. Plowden14 minM. Monk12 minN. Clifford8 minA. FlaglerNew

Forwards

D. Sabonis37 minD. Hunter29 minP. Achiuwa29 minL. Black29 minJ. Mogbo17 minA. Karaban10 min

Out

Z. LaVineDay-To-DayK. MurrayOut

Rockets

Guards

A. Thompson34 minF. VanVleet31 minM. Smart25 minB. Bogdanovic15 minS. Pedulla4 minB. Thornton3 min

Forwards

J. Smith34 minK. Durant34 minT. Eason24 minJ. Tate9 minI. Crawford7 min

Centers

A. Sengun34 minO. Tshiebwe17 min

Out

S. AdamsOutC. CapelaDay-To-DayR. SheppardDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SAC109.3 #22

HOU120.7 #3

Points per possession

SAC1.03 #28

HOU1.20 #1

Pace (possessions)

SAC106.0 #6

HOU101.6 #24

Shooting

Effective FG%

SAC51.0 #23

HOU56.6 #3

3-point %

SAC30.4 #27

HOU39.0 #3

3-point attempt rate

SAC38.0 #27

HOU38.1 #26

Free throw rate

SAC26.4 #20

HOU31.9 #8

Possessions

Turnover rate

SAC15.9 #19

HOU15.1 #13

Offensive rebound rate

SAC22.9 #28

HOU32.4 #3

Assists per game

SAC24.5 #23

HOU28.1 #5

Defense

Points allowed

SAC128.3 #29

HOU108.3 #7

Points allowed per possession

SAC1.21 #29

HOU1.06 #8

Opponent effective FG%

SAC60.4 #30

HOU52.1 #10

Opponent 3-point %

SAC39.2 #27

HOU30.2 #4

Turnovers forced

SAC14.6 #22

HOU15.7 #16

Defensive rebound rate

SAC73.7 #12

HOU73.2 #14

Steals per game

SAC8.0 #21

HOU9.7 #6

Blocks per game

SAC2.3 #30

HOU5.9 #8

SAC		HOU
Scoring
109.3 #22	Points per game	120.7 #3
1.03 #28	Points per possession	1.20 #1
106.0 #6	Pace (possessions)	101.6 #24
Shooting
51.0 #23	Effective FG%	56.6 #3
30.4 #27	3-point %	39.0 #3
38.0 #27	3-point attempt rate	38.1 #26
26.4 #20	Free throw rate	31.9 #8
Possessions
15.9 #19	Turnover rate	15.1 #13
22.9 #28	Offensive rebound rate	32.4 #3
24.5 #23	Assists per game	28.1 #5
Defense
128.3 #29	Points allowed	108.3 #7
1.21 #29	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #8
60.4 #30	Opponent effective FG%	52.1 #10
39.2 #27	Opponent 3-point %	30.2 #4
14.6 #22	Turnovers forced	15.7 #16
73.7 #12	Defensive rebound rate	73.2 #14
8.0 #21	Steals per game	9.7 #6
2.3 #30	Blocks per game	5.9 #8

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Kings

0-6 overall · 0-6 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Grizzlies105–136
L@ Pelicans120–132
L@ Spurs103–130
Lvs Grizzlies112–123
Lvs Trail Blazers120–128

A week or more of rest.

Rockets

6-1 overall · 3-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Thunder119–98
L@ Mavericks111–116
W@ Bucks132–100
Wvs Hawks120–110
W@ Hawks121–114

A week or more of rest.

Kings @ Rockets

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Kings

Rockets

Rockets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Kings

Rockets