Washington Wizards at Memphis Grizzlies: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Apr 7, 8:00 PM ETFedExForum · at Grizzlies

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Wizards and Grizzlies
WSH	This season	MEM
3-3	Record	6-0
3-3	ATS	6-0
1-5	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MEM 119–113 · win probability MEM 67%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 232.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges

WSH 1, MEM 7 · 2026-27 so far

MEMBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: WSH 20.9%, MEM 30.6%. Defensive: WSH 68.0%, MEM 75.0%

WSHBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: WSH 34.2, MEM 25.3. Allowed: WSH 21.8, MEM 31.4

MEMBig

Three-pointers

WSH hits 29.3% and allows 28.7%; MEM hits 41.7% and allows 30.0%. Threes are 37.6% and 42.1% of their shots

MEMBig

WSH offense vs MEM defense

Offense 25th of 30 against a defense 13th, on the model’s ratings

MEMBig

MEM offense vs WSH defense

Offense 11th of 30 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings

MEMBig

Recent form

Last 5: WSH 2-3 ATS, margin -1.4; MEM 5-0 ATS, margin +14.2

MEMSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: WSH 52.1 and allows 48.1; MEM 55.9 and allows 49.2

MEMSmall

Home court

MEM at home. This season: MEM 2-0 at home, WSH 1-2 away

Context

Schedule so far

WSH has played the 26th-hardest schedule, MEM the 30th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: WSH plays 102.3 a game (20th fastest), MEM 103.6 (13th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: WSH 14.6%, MEM 15.4%. Forced: WSH 13.3%, MEM 15.7%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: WSH 100%, MEM 100%. Transfers in: WSH 0, MEM 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSH LWLLW	3-3	50%	1-2	—
MEM WWWWW	6-0	100%	2-0	—

Venue/role: WSH away; MEM home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSH UUUUU	1-5	17%	3-3
MEM UOUUO	2-4	33%	6-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSHlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%
MEMlast 6	6-0 100%	6-0 100%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Wizards

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 9	@ MIA	L117–140LO
Apr 11	vs DET	L95–117LU

Grizzlies

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 9	@ PHX	L105–131LO
Apr 11	@ DAL	L112–120LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

WSH 5–5 MEMSeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · WSH has won the last 2 meetings · WSH 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 28, 2025-26	MEM 112 @ WSH 116	WSH +8.5	WSH W
Dec 20, 2025-26	WSH 130 @ MEM 122	MEM -12.5	WSH W
Dec 8, 2024-25	MEM 140 @ WSH 112	WSH +10.5	MEM W
Nov 8, 2024-25	WSH 104 @ MEM 128	MEM -7.5	MEM W
Mar 12, 2023-24	WSH 97 @ MEM 109	MEM +2.5	MEM W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Wizards

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −14 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-517%

O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIL	W 128-116	-4.5	W +7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsTOR	L 102-112	+9.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 24	@CHI	W 124-120	+1.5	W +5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@CHA	L 103-110	+2.5	L −4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@CLE	L 111-121	+9.5	L −0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 30	vsCHA	W 95-79	-1.5	W +14.5	218.5	U 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+7.5

TOR

L 102-112

−0.5

CHI

W 124-120

+5.5

CHA

L 103-110

−4.5

CLE

L 111-121

−0.5

CHA

W 95-79

+14.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+4.5

TOR

L 102-112

−22.5

CHI

W 124-120

−0.5

CHA

L 103-110

−12.5

CLE

L 111-121

−8.5

CHA

W 95-79

−44.5

over 1under 5avg −14 ptslonger = bigger margin

Grizzlies

6 games played

Straight up

6-0

100% wins

Against the spread

6-0

100% covers · avg +14.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −8.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsUTAH	W 123-103	-1.5	W +18.5	240.5	U 226
Oct 23	@GS	W 111-108	+4.5	W +7.5	236.5	U 219
Oct 25	@SAC	W 123-112	-3.5	W +7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 26	@UTAH	W 110-105	-1.5	W +3.5	237.5	U 215
Oct 29	@POR	W 124-103	+7.5	W +28.5	233.5	U 227
Oct 31	vsSAC	W 136-105	-7.5	W +23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UTAH

W 123-103

+18.5

W 111-108

+7.5

SAC

W 123-112

+7.5

UTAH

W 110-105

+3.5

POR

W 124-103

+28.5

SAC

W 136-105

+23.5

covered 6didn’t cover 0avg +14.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UTAH

W 123-103

−14.5

W 111-108

−17.5

SAC

W 123-112

+0.5

UTAH

W 110-105

−22.5

POR

W 124-103

−6.5

SAC

W 136-105

+11.5

over 2under 4avg −8.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Grizzlies has the better starters

Position by position: Wizards 1, Grizzlies 3, even 1

WizardsBetterGrizzlies

G T. Young20.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 10.2 ast Score 23

MEMBig

G T. Jerome25.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 5.6 ast Score 97

G B. Coulibaly8.3 pts · 4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 4

MEMBig

F C. Boozer17.7 pts · 10.5 reb · 5.7 ast Score 87

F A. Davis22.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 86

WSHBig

F C. Coward13 pts · 8.6 reb · 2.6 ast Score 33

F K. George15.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 36

MEMBig

F J. Wells12.2 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 85

F A. Dybantsa18 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Not ranked

No call

C Z. Edey7 pts · 7 reb · 1 ast Score 92

WizardsBetterGrizzlies

WSH offense25th of 30 · -2.5

MEMBig

MEM defense13th of 30 · +1.1

WSH defense23rd of 30 · -2.9

MEMBig

MEM offense11th of 30 · +1.3

Backcourt-12.8 · 2 players

MEMBig

Backcourt+16.5 · 1 player

Frontcourt+11.5 · 3 players

MEMBig

Frontcourt+29.5 · 4 players

Bench-14.5 · 5 players

WSHBig

Bench-18.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestWSH betterMEM betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Wizards

Guards

T. Young36 minB. Coulibaly26 minW. Riley22 minT. Johnson21 minB. Carrington20 minT. Mann13 min

Forwards

A. Davis34 minK. George32 minA. Dybantsa29 minK. Middleton14 minF. Okpara1 min

Centers

D. Ayton14 min

Out

A. GillDay-To-DayJ. ChampagnieOutA. SarrDay-To-Day

Grizzlies

Guards

T. Jerome30 minJ. Mashack22 minJ. Small21 minC. Spencer19 minW. Clayton11 min

Forwards

C. Boozer31 minC. Coward28 minJ. Wells27 minJ. Grant24 minT. Hendricks19 minO. Prosper19 min

Centers

Z. Edey20 minI. Stewart18 minC. Cooper3 min

Out

S. PippenDay-To-DayQ. PostDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

WSH110.5 #20

MEM121.2 #1

Points per possession

WSH1.08 #19

MEM1.16 #4

Pace (possessions)

WSH102.3 #20

MEM103.6 #13

Shooting

Effective FG%

WSH52.1 #20

MEM55.9 #5

3-point %

WSH29.3 #29

MEM41.7 #1

3-point attempt rate

WSH37.6 #28

MEM42.1 #19

Free throw rate

WSH34.2 #5

MEM25.3 #22

Possessions

Turnover rate

WSH14.6 #8

MEM15.4 #16

Offensive rebound rate

WSH20.9 #29

MEM30.6 #5

Assists per game

WSH24.5 #24

MEM27.0 #13

Defense

Points allowed

WSH109.7 #11

MEM106.0 #3

Points allowed per possession

WSH1.07 #11

MEM1.03 #2

Opponent effective FG%

WSH48.1 #1

MEM49.2 #3

Opponent 3-point %

WSH28.7 #1

MEM30.0 #3

Turnovers forced

WSH13.3 #27

MEM15.7 #15

Defensive rebound rate

WSH68.0 #28

MEM75.0 #9

Steals per game

WSH7.2 #24

MEM6.3 #28

Blocks per game

WSH5.3 #9

MEM5.2 #11

WSH		MEM
Scoring
110.5 #20	Points per game	121.2 #1
1.08 #19	Points per possession	1.16 #4
102.3 #20	Pace (possessions)	103.6 #13
Shooting
52.1 #20	Effective FG%	55.9 #5
29.3 #29	3-point %	41.7 #1
37.6 #28	3-point attempt rate	42.1 #19
34.2 #5	Free throw rate	25.3 #22
Possessions
14.6 #8	Turnover rate	15.4 #16
20.9 #29	Offensive rebound rate	30.6 #5
24.5 #24	Assists per game	27.0 #13
Defense
109.7 #11	Points allowed	106.0 #3
1.07 #11	Points allowed per possession	1.03 #2
48.1 #1	Opponent effective FG%	49.2 #3
28.7 #1	Opponent 3-point %	30.0 #3
13.3 #27	Turnovers forced	15.7 #15
68.0 #28	Defensive rebound rate	75.0 #9
7.2 #24	Steals per game	6.3 #28
5.3 #9	Blocks per game	5.2 #11

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Wizards

3-3 overall · 3-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hornets95–79
L@ Cavaliers111–121
L@ Hornets103–110
W@ Bulls124–120
Lvs Raptors102–112

A week or more of rest.

Grizzlies

6-0 overall · 6-0 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Kings136–105
W@ Trail Blazers124–103
W@ Jazz110–105
W@ Kings123–112
W@ Warriors111–108

A week or more of rest.

Wizards @ Grizzlies

What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Wizards

Grizzlies

Grizzlies has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Wizards

Grizzlies