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NBA · Fri, Apr 9

Trail Blazers @ Rockets

Toyota Center (Houston) · at Rockets · Conference game
#9PORTrail Blazers
@
#1HOURockets
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
PORThis seasonHOU
4-1Record6-1
3-2ATS6-1
2-3O/U5-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HOU 115–110 · win probability HOU 64%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 225.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

POR 0, HOU 4 · 2026-27 so far
Context
Schedule so far
POR has played the 27th-hardest schedule, HOU the 12th. A record against a soft schedule means less
HOUSmall
Three-pointers
POR hits 35.3% and allows 32.1%; HOU hits 39.0% and allows 30.2%. Threes are 51.5% and 38.1% of their shots
HOUSmall
POR offense vs HOU defense
Offense 10th of 30 against a defense 4th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 103 possessions: POR plays 103.5 a game (14th fastest), HOU 101.6 (24th). Faster games mean more points
HOUSmall
HOU offense vs POR defense
Offense 6th of 30 against a defense 11th, on the model’s ratings
HOUSmall
Home court
HOU at home. This season: HOU 3-0 at home, POR 3-0 away
Even
Recent form
Last 5: POR 3-2 ATS, margin +11.4; HOU 4-1 ATS, margin +13.0
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: POR 35.9, HOU 31.9. Allowed: POR 27.8, HOU 24.7
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: POR 56.2 and allows 51.3; HOU 56.6 and allows 52.1
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: POR 14.6%, HOU 15.1%. Forced: POR 14.8%, HOU 15.7%
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: POR 27.6%, HOU 32.4%. Defensive: POR 77.3%, HOU 73.2%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: POR 100%, HOU 100%. Transfers in: POR 0, HOU 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelHOU -5.2
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model225.3
Model edge—
Projected score
POR 110.1 · HOU 115.2
Win probability
HOU 64%
1st half
Spread
HOU -2.8
Total
112.9
Projected score
POR 55.1 · HOU 57.8
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Rockets has the better starters

Position by position: Trail Blazers 1, Rockets 2, even 2
Trail BlazersBetterRockets
G D. Lillard19.2 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 89
PORSmall
G A. Thompson16.3 pts · 6.6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 60
G S. Henderson8.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 34
HOUBig
G F. VanVleet13 pts · 4 reb · 6.4 ast Score 94
F D. Avdija23 pts · 6.8 reb · 5.6 ast Score 82
Even
F J. Smith19 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.7 ast Score 79
F T. Camara15.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 44
HOUBig
F K. Durant22 pts · 5.6 reb · 3.3 ast Score 82
C D. Clingan8.6 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 74
Even
C A. Sengun22.8 pts · 9 reb · 7.4 ast Score 84
Trail BlazersBetterRockets
POR offense10th of 30 · +1.4
HOUSmall
HOU defense4th of 30 · +5.2
POR defense11th of 30 · +1.8
HOUSmall
HOU offense6th of 30 · +2.9
Backcourt+11.6 · 2 players
HOUBig
Backcourt+19.1 · 2 players
Frontcourt+16.7 · 3 players
HOUBig
Frontcourt+30.0 · 3 players
Bench+15.6 · 5 players
Even
Bench+16.2 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestPOR betterHOU betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Trail Blazers
Guards
D. Lillard29 minS. Henderson21 minJ. Holiday25 minS. Cissoko22 minV. Krejci11 minC. Youngblood6 min
Forwards
D. Avdija31 minT. Camara26 minJ. Tonje8 min
Centers
D. Clingan22 minM. Potter19 minR. Williams17 minB. Carlson12 minY. Hansen10 min
Out
J. MorantOut
Rockets
Guards
A. Thompson34 minF. VanVleet31 minM. Smart25 minB. Bogdanovic15 minS. Pedulla4 minB. Thornton3 min
Forwards
J. Smith34 minK. Durant34 minT. Eason24 minJ. Tate9 minI. Crawford7 min
Centers
A. Sengun34 minO. Tshiebwe17 min
Out
S. AdamsOutC. CapelaDay-To-DayR. SheppardDay-To-Day
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
PORHOU
Scoring
120.6 #4Points per game120.7 #3
1.16 #5Points per possession1.20 #1
103.5 #14Pace (possessions)101.6 #24
Shooting
56.2 #4Effective FG%56.6 #3
35.3 #123-point %39.0 #3
51.5 #13-point attempt rate38.1 #26
35.9 #3Free throw rate31.9 #8
Possessions
14.6 #9Turnover rate15.1 #13
27.6 #14Offensive rebound rate32.4 #3
26.2 #17Assists per game28.1 #5
Defense
109.2 #10Points allowed108.3 #7
1.06 #10Points allowed per possession1.06 #8
51.3 #8Opponent effective FG%52.1 #10
32.1 #8Opponent 3-point %30.2 #4
14.8 #20Turnovers forced15.7 #16
77.3 #3Defensive rebound rate73.2 #14
8.6 #18Steals per game9.7 #6
4.2 #21Blocks per game5.9 #8
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Trail Blazers

4-1 overall · 4-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • W@ Jazz112–90
  • Lvs Grizzlies103–124
  • W@ Lakers136–129
  • W@ Kings128–120
  • Wvs Suns124–83

A week or more of rest.

Rockets

6-1 overall · 3-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Thunder119–98
  • L@ Mavericks111–116
  • W@ Bucks132–100
  • Wvs Hawks120–110
  • W@ Hawks121–114

A week or more of rest.