Sacramento Kings at Dallas Mavericks: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Apr 2, 8:00 PM ETAmerican Airlines Center · at Mavericks · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Kings and Mavericks
SAC	This season	DAL
0-6	Record	4-2
1-5	ATS	4-2
5-1	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DAL 124–111 · win probability DAL 84%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 234.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DAL has more of the edges

SAC 0, DAL 6 · 2026-27 so far

DALBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: SAC 51.0 and allows 60.4; DAL 56.9 and allows 51.3

DALBig

Three-pointers

SAC hits 30.4% and allows 39.2%; DAL hits 35.1% and allows 29.7%. Threes are 38.0% and 42.1% of their shots

DALBig

DAL offense vs SAC defense

Offense 16th of 30 against a defense 29th, on the model’s ratings

DALBig

SAC offense vs DAL defense

Offense 27th of 30 against a defense 16th, on the model’s ratings

DALBig

Recent form

Last 5: SAC 1-4 ATS, margin -17.8; DAL 4-1 ATS, margin +6.6

Context

Schedule so far

SAC has played the 8th-hardest schedule, DAL the 2nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: SAC plays 106.0 a game (6th fastest), DAL 102.8 (18th). Faster games mean more points

DALSmall

Home court

DAL at home. This season: DAL 2-1 at home, SAC 0-4 away

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SAC 15.9%, DAL 16.8%. Forced: SAC 14.6%, DAL 14.5%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: SAC 26.4, DAL 21.4. Allowed: SAC 31.2, DAL 27.2

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SAC 22.9%, DAL 27.8%. Defensive: SAC 73.7%, DAL 69.4%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SAC 100%, DAL 100%. Transfers in: SAC 0, DAL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SAC WLLLL	1-5	17%	0-4	—
DAL WLWWW	4-2	67%	2-1	—

Venue/role: SAC away; DAL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SAC OOOOO	5-1	83%	0-6
DAL UUUUO	2-4	33%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SAClast 6	0-6 0%	1-5 17%	5-1 83%
DALlast 6	4-2 67%	4-2 67%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Kings

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 4	vs GS	W124–118WO
Apr 6	@ SA	L103–130LO
Apr 7	@ HOU	L97–128LO

Mavericks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 4	vs MIN	L94–124LU
Apr 6	@ LAL	W134–128WO
Apr 7	@ POR	W100–93WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

SAC 9–9 DALSeries tied · 18 games since 2021-22 · SAC 11-7 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 26, 2025-26	SAC 130 @ DAL 121	DAL -7.5	SAC W
Jan 6, 2025-26	DAL 100 @ SAC 98	SAC +4.5	SAC W
Dec 27, 2025-26	DAL 107 @ SAC 113	SAC +2.5	SAC W
Apr 16, 2024-25	DAL 120 @ SAC 106	SAC -5.5	DAL W
Mar 3, 2024-25	SAC 122 @ DAL 98	DAL +1.5	SAC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Kings

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −10.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAC	L 96-121	+5.5	L −19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	vsPOR	L 120-128	+9.5	W +1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 25	vsMEM	L 112-123	+3.5	L −7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 27	@SA	L 103-130	+19.5	L −7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 29	@NO	L 120-132	+6.5	L −5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	@MEM	L 105-136	+7.5	L −23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−19.5

POR

L 120-128

+1.5

MEM

L 112-123

−7.5

L 103-130

−7.5

L 120-132

−5.5

MEM

L 105-136

−23.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −10.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−9.5

POR

L 120-128

+16.5

MEM

L 112-123

+0.5

L 103-130

+0.5

L 120-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-136

+11.5

over 5under 1avg +6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Mavericks

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +10.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −6 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-267%

L W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@HOU	L 110-128	+9.5	L −8.5	230.5	O 238
Oct 23	@IND	W 121-105	+7.5	W +23.5	241.5	U 226
Oct 24	vsSA	L 106-122	+14.5	L −1.5	229.5	U 228
Oct 26	@MIA	W 113-109	+7.5	W +11.5	240.5	U 222
Oct 28	vsOKC	W 120-96	+4.5	W +28.5	227.5	U 216
Oct 30	vsHOU	W 116-111	+5.5	W +10.5	223.5	O 227

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HOU

L 110-128

−8.5

IND

W 121-105

+23.5

L 106-122

−1.5

MIA

W 113-109

+11.5

OKC

W 120-96

+28.5

HOU

W 116-111

+10.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +10.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HOU

L 110-128

+7.5

IND

W 121-105

−15.5

L 106-122

−1.5

MIA

W 113-109

−18.5

OKC

W 120-96

−11.5

HOU

W 116-111

+3.5

over 2under 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Mavericks has the better starters

Position by position: Kings 0, Mavericks 3, even 2

KingsBetterMavericks

G D. Acuff26.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 6.3 ast Score 4

Even

G M. Christie8.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 2 ast Score 9

F D. Sabonis16 pts · 15.8 reb · 7.3 ast Score 26

DALBig

F P. Washington13.8 pts · 8.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 78

F D. Hunter14 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 38

Even

F C. Flagg26.8 pts · 6 reb · 6.6 ast Score 49

F P. Achiuwa12.5 pts · 6 reb · 1 ast Score 7

DALBig

F Z. Risacher9.5 pts · 6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 65

F L. Black7.1 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 13

DALSmall

F D. Gafford8.5 pts · 7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 46

KingsBetterMavericks

SAC offense27th of 30 · -3.0

DALBig

DAL defense16th of 30 · -0.1

SAC defense29th of 30 · -7.9

DALBig

DAL offense16th of 30 · +0.6

Backcourt-13.7 · 1 player

DALBig

Backcourt-6.6 · 1 player

Frontcourt-18.6 · 4 players

DALBig

Frontcourt+16.0 · 4 players

Bench-13.2 · 5 players

DALBig

Bench+2.7 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestSAC betterDAL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Kings

Guards

D. Acuff37 minE. Sharp18 minD. Plowden14 minM. Monk12 minN. Clifford8 minA. FlaglerNew

Forwards

D. Sabonis37 minD. Hunter29 minP. Achiuwa29 minL. Black29 minJ. Mogbo17 minA. Karaban10 min

Out

Z. LaVineDay-To-DayK. MurrayOut

Mavericks

Guards

M. Christie27 minM. Sasser19 minJ. Howard12 min

Forwards

P. Washington34 minC. Flagg32 minZ. Risacher30 minD. Gafford24 minN. Marshall28 minC. Martin20 min

Centers

M. Cisse14 min

Out

S. de LarreaOutK. IrvingDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SAC109.3 #22

DAL114.3 #14

Points per possession

SAC1.03 #28

DAL1.12 #11

Pace (possessions)

SAC106.0 #6

DAL102.8 #18

Shooting

Effective FG%

SAC51.0 #23

DAL56.9 #2

3-point %

SAC30.4 #27

DAL35.1 #14

3-point attempt rate

SAC38.0 #27

DAL42.1 #18

Free throw rate

SAC26.4 #20

DAL21.4 #29

Possessions

Turnover rate

SAC15.9 #19

DAL16.8 #23

Offensive rebound rate

SAC22.9 #28

DAL27.8 #13

Assists per game

SAC24.5 #23

DAL27.0 #12

Defense

Points allowed

SAC128.3 #29

DAL111.8 #14

Points allowed per possession

SAC1.21 #29

DAL1.08 #13

Opponent effective FG%

SAC60.4 #30

DAL51.3 #9

Opponent 3-point %

SAC39.2 #27

DAL29.7 #2

Turnovers forced

SAC14.6 #22

DAL14.5 #24

Defensive rebound rate

SAC73.7 #12

DAL69.4 #25

Steals per game

SAC8.0 #21

DAL8.8 #16

Blocks per game

SAC2.3 #30

DAL6.8 #2

SAC		DAL
Scoring
109.3 #22	Points per game	114.3 #14
1.03 #28	Points per possession	1.12 #11
106.0 #6	Pace (possessions)	102.8 #18
Shooting
51.0 #23	Effective FG%	56.9 #2
30.4 #27	3-point %	35.1 #14
38.0 #27	3-point attempt rate	42.1 #18
26.4 #20	Free throw rate	21.4 #29
Possessions
15.9 #19	Turnover rate	16.8 #23
22.9 #28	Offensive rebound rate	27.8 #13
24.5 #23	Assists per game	27.0 #12
Defense
128.3 #29	Points allowed	111.8 #14
1.21 #29	Points allowed per possession	1.08 #13
60.4 #30	Opponent effective FG%	51.3 #9
39.2 #27	Opponent 3-point %	29.7 #2
14.6 #22	Turnovers forced	14.5 #24
73.7 #12	Defensive rebound rate	69.4 #25
8.0 #21	Steals per game	8.8 #16
2.3 #30	Blocks per game	6.8 #2

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Kings

0-6 overall · 0-6 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Grizzlies105–136
L@ Pelicans120–132
L@ Spurs103–130
Lvs Grizzlies112–123
Lvs Trail Blazers120–128

A week or more of rest.

Mavericks

4-2 overall · 2-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Rockets116–111
Wvs Thunder120–96
W@ Heat113–109
Lvs Spurs106–122
W@ Pacers121–105

A week or more of rest.

Kings @ Mavericks

What could decide it: DAL has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Kings

Mavericks

Mavericks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Kings

Mavericks