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NBA · Sun, Apr 4

Timberwolves @ Mavericks

American Airlines Center · at Mavericks · Conference game
#2MINTimberwolves
@
#17DALMavericks
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MINThis seasonDAL
4-3Record4-2
6-1ATS4-2
4-3O/U2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIN 118–113 · win probability MIN 64%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 230.7
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

MIN 4, DAL 1 · 2026-27 so far
MINBig
MIN offense vs DAL defense
Offense 3rd of 30 against a defense 16th, on the model’s ratings
MINBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MIN 30.0%, DAL 27.8%. Defensive: MIN 75.4%, DAL 69.4%
MINBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MIN 15.1%, DAL 16.8%. Forced: MIN 15.6%, DAL 14.5%
MINSmall
DAL offense vs MIN defense
Offense 16th of 30 against a defense 8th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
MIN has played the 7th-hardest schedule, DAL the 2nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 104 possessions: MIN plays 105.4 a game (9th fastest), DAL 102.8 (18th). Faster games mean more points
DALSmall
Home court
DAL at home. This season: DAL 2-1 at home, MIN 2-2 away
Even
Three-pointers
MIN hits 37.6% and allows 31.2%; DAL hits 35.1% and allows 29.7%. Threes are 42.8% and 42.1% of their shots
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: MIN 26.1, DAL 21.4. Allowed: MIN 28.9, DAL 27.2
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: MIN 55.8 and allows 50.5; DAL 56.9 and allows 51.3
Even
Recent form
Last 5: MIN 4-1 ATS, margin +6.4; DAL 4-1 ATS, margin +6.6
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MIN 100%, DAL 100%. Transfers in: MIN 0, DAL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelMIN -5.2
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model230.7
Model edge—
Projected score
MIN 117.9 · DAL 112.8
Win probability
MIN 64%
1st half
Spread
MIN -3.1
Total
115.5
Projected score
MIN 59.3 · DAL 56.2
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Timberwolves has the better starters

Position by position: Timberwolves 4, Mavericks 0, even 1
TimberwolvesBetterMavericks
G A. Dosunmu15.3 pts · 5 reb · 3.4 ast Score 42
MINSmall
G M. Christie8.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 2 ast Score 9
G L. Ball14.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 6.3 ast Score 91
Even
F P. Washington13.8 pts · 8.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 78
F J. McDaniels17.3 pts · 6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 96
MINBig
F C. Flagg26.8 pts · 6 reb · 6.6 ast Score 49
F J. Kuminga12.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.6 ast Score 92
MINSmall
F Z. Risacher9.5 pts · 6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 65
C R. Gobert7 pts · 12.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 98
MINBig
F D. Gafford8.5 pts · 7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 46
TimberwolvesBetterMavericks
MIN offense3rd of 30 · +3.7
MINBig
DAL defense16th of 30 · -0.1
MIN defense8th of 30 · +3.6
MINSmall
DAL offense16th of 30 · +0.6
Backcourt+12.6 · 2 players
MINBig
Backcourt-6.6 · 1 player
Frontcourt+46.4 · 3 players
MINBig
Frontcourt+16.0 · 4 players
Bench+0.3 · 5 players
DALSmall
Bench+2.7 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestMIN betterDAL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Timberwolves
Guards
A. Dosunmu29 minL. Ball25 minT. Shannon22 minB. Hyland12 minJ. Clark9 minZ. Pullin8 min
Forwards
J. McDaniels33 minJ. Kuminga30 minC. Williams24 minJ. Beringer19 minT. Lyles16 minI. Evans3 min
Centers
R. Gobert30 min
Out
A. EdwardsOut
Mavericks
Guards
M. Christie27 minM. Sasser19 minJ. Howard12 min
Forwards
P. Washington34 minC. Flagg32 minZ. Risacher30 minD. Gafford24 minN. Marshall28 minC. Martin20 min
Centers
M. Cisse14 min
Out
S. de LarreaOutK. IrvingDay-To-Day
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MINDAL
Scoring
120.0 #6Points per game114.3 #14
1.13 #8Points per possession1.12 #11
105.4 #9Pace (possessions)102.8 #18
Shooting
55.8 #6Effective FG%56.9 #2
37.6 #63-point %35.1 #14
42.8 #163-point attempt rate42.1 #18
26.1 #21Free throw rate21.4 #29
Possessions
15.1 #12Turnover rate16.8 #23
30.0 #7Offensive rebound rate27.8 #13
27.3 #11Assists per game27.0 #12
Defense
108.7 #8Points allowed111.8 #14
1.04 #4Points allowed per possession1.08 #13
50.5 #5Opponent effective FG%51.3 #9
31.2 #6Opponent 3-point %29.7 #2
15.6 #17Turnovers forced14.5 #24
75.4 #8Defensive rebound rate69.4 #25
9.0 #13Steals per game8.8 #16
4.3 #20Blocks per game6.8 #2
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Timberwolves

4-3 overall · 1-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • L@ Spurs111–121
  • Wvs Clippers127–101
  • Lvs Warriors114–119
  • L@ Cavaliers125–127
  • Wvs Raptors117–94

A week or more of rest.

Mavericks

4-2 overall · 2-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Rockets116–111
  • Wvs Thunder120–96
  • W@ Heat113–109
  • Lvs Spurs106–122
  • W@ Pacers121–105

A week or more of rest.