Minnesota Timberwolves at LA Clippers: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Apr 6, 10:30 PM ETIntuit Dome · at Clippers · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Timberwolves and Clippers
MIN	This season	LAC
4-3	Record	1-5
6-1	ATS	3-3
4-3	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIN 116–110 · win probability MIN 69%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 226.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

MIN 7, LAC 2 · 2026-27 so far

MINBig

LAC offense vs MIN defense

Offense 28th of 30 against a defense 8th, on the model’s ratings

MINBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: MIN 55.8 and allows 50.5; LAC 52.9 and allows 56.9

MINBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MIN 30.0%, LAC 26.5%. Defensive: MIN 75.4%, LAC 70.9%

MINBig

Three-pointers

MIN hits 37.6% and allows 31.2%; LAC hits 38.6% and allows 38.2%. Threes are 42.8% and 42.3% of their shots

MINBig

MIN offense vs LAC defense

Offense 3rd of 30 against a defense 12th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: MIN plays 105.4 a game (9th fastest), LAC 101.7 (23rd). Faster games mean more points

LACSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: MIN 26.1, LAC 28.0. Allowed: MIN 28.9, LAC 24.7

MINSmall

Recent form

Last 5: MIN 4-1 ATS, margin +6.4; LAC 2-3 ATS, margin -13.8

MINSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MIN 15.1%, LAC 20.4%. Forced: MIN 15.6%, LAC 17.0%

LACSmall

Home court

LAC at home. This season: LAC 1-1 at home, MIN 2-2 away

Context

Schedule so far

MIN has played the 7th-hardest schedule, LAC the 10th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MIN 100%, LAC 100%. Transfers in: MIN 0, LAC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIN WWLWW	6-1	86%	4-0	—
LAC WWLLL	3-3	50%	1-1	—

Venue/role: MIN away; LAC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIN UOOOO	4-3	57%	4-3
LAC OUUOO	3-3	50%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MINlast 7	4-3 57%	6-1 86%	4-3 57%
LAClast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Timberwolves

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 7	@ LAL	L106–120LU
Apr 9	@ LAL	L106–120LU
Apr 11	vs HOU	W136–132WO

Clippers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 8	@ DEN	W115–114WO
Apr 9	@ UTAH	W115–103WU
Apr 11	vs SAC	W121–96WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 20 since 2021-22

MIN 13–7 LACMIN leads · 20 games since 2021-22 · MIN 9-11 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 30, 2026-27	LAC 101 @ MIN 127	MIN -6.5	MIN W
Mar 11, 2025-26	MIN 128 @ LAC 153	LAC -1.5	LAC W
Feb 26, 2025-26	MIN 94 @ LAC 88	LAC +8.5	LAC W
Feb 8, 2025-26	LAC 115 @ MIN 96	MIN -8.5	LAC W
Dec 6, 2025-26	LAC 106 @ MIN 109	MIN -8.5	LAC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Timberwolves

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +12.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MIA	W 131-106	+1.5	W +26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	@ORL	W 115-93	+1.5	W +23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	vsTOR	W 117-94	-3.5	W +19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 26	@CLE	L 125-127	+3.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsGS	L 114-119	-3.5	L −8.5	227.5	O 233
Oct 30	vsLAC	W 127-101	-6.5	W +19.5	222.5	O 228
Oct 31	@SA	L 111-121	+12.5	W +2.5	230.5	O 232

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

+26.5

ORL

W 115-93

+23.5

TOR

W 117-94

+19.5

CLE

L 125-127

+1.5

L 114-119

−8.5

LAC

W 127-101

+19.5

L 111-121

+2.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +12.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

−3.5

ORL

W 115-93

−26.5

TOR

W 117-94

−17.5

CLE

L 125-127

+17.5

L 114-119

+5.5

LAC

W 127-101

+5.5

L 111-121

+1.5

over 4under 3avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Clippers

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsSAC	W 121-96	-5.5	W +19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	@LAL	L 117-125	+8.5	W +0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@OKC	L 101-108	+16.5	W +9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 28	vsLAL	L 87-103	-1.5	L −17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@MIN	L 101-127	+6.5	L −19.5	222.5	O 228
Nov 1	@GS	L 112-124	+1.5	L −10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

+19.5

LAL

L 117-125

+0.5

OKC

L 101-108

+9.5

LAL

L 87-103

−17.5

MIN

L 101-127

−19.5

L 112-124

−10.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SAC

W 121-96

−9.5

LAL

L 117-125

+16.5

OKC

L 101-108

−14.5

LAL

L 87-103

−34.5

MIN

L 101-127

+5.5

L 112-124

+15.5

over 3under 3avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Timberwolves has the better starters

Position by position: Timberwolves 4, Clippers 0, even 1

TimberwolvesBetterClippers

G A. Dosunmu15.3 pts · 5 reb · 3.4 ast Score 42

MINSmall

G D. Garland20.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 6.3 ast Score 27

G L. Ball14.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 6.3 ast Score 91

MINBig

G K. Dunn8.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 25

F J. McDaniels17.3 pts · 6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 96

MINBig

G K. Sanders8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast Score 31

F J. Kuminga12.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.6 ast Score 92

Even

F R. Hachimura13.4 pts · 6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 83

C R. Gobert7 pts · 12.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 98

MINBig

F I. Jackson8 pts · 6.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 8

TimberwolvesBetterClippers

MIN offense3rd of 30 · +3.7

MINSmall

LAC defense12th of 30 · +1.7

MIN defense8th of 30 · +3.6

MINBig

LAC offense28th of 30 · -3.5

Backcourt+12.6 · 2 players

MINBig

Backcourt-5.9 · 3 players

Frontcourt+46.4 · 3 players

MINBig

Frontcourt+3.6 · 2 players

Bench+0.3 · 5 players

LACBig

Bench+3.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMIN betterLAC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Timberwolves

Guards

A. Dosunmu29 minL. Ball25 minT. Shannon22 minB. Hyland12 minJ. Clark9 minZ. Pullin8 min

Forwards

J. McDaniels33 minJ. Kuminga30 minC. Williams24 minJ. Beringer19 minT. Lyles16 minI. Evans3 min

Centers

R. Gobert30 min

Out

A. EdwardsOut

Clippers

Guards

D. Garland33 minK. Dunn30 minK. Sanders23 minK. Wagler25 minJ. Pickett16 minG. Dick14 min

Forwards

R. Hachimura30 minI. Jackson22 minB. Miller8 minN. Martinelli5 min

Centers

B. Lopez22 min

Out

D. JonesDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MIN120.0 #6

LAC106.5 #28

Points per possession

MIN1.13 #8

LAC1.04 #27

Pace (possessions)

MIN105.4 #9

LAC101.7 #23

Shooting

Effective FG%

MIN55.8 #6

LAC52.9 #18

3-point %

MIN37.6 #6

LAC38.6 #5

3-point attempt rate

MIN42.8 #16

LAC42.3 #17

Free throw rate

MIN26.1 #21

LAC28.0 #17

Possessions

Turnover rate

MIN15.1 #12

LAC20.4 #30

Offensive rebound rate

MIN30.0 #7

LAC26.5 #21

Assists per game

MIN27.3 #11

LAC24.3 #26

Defense

Points allowed

MIN108.7 #8

LAC113.8 #15

Points allowed per possession

MIN1.04 #4

LAC1.13 #22

Opponent effective FG%

MIN50.5 #5

LAC56.9 #28

Opponent 3-point %

MIN31.2 #6

LAC38.2 #26

Turnovers forced

MIN15.6 #17

LAC17.0 #8

Defensive rebound rate

MIN75.4 #8

LAC70.9 #20

Steals per game

MIN9.0 #13

LAC11.3 #3

Blocks per game

MIN4.3 #20

LAC4.2 #22

MIN		LAC
Scoring
120.0 #6	Points per game	106.5 #28
1.13 #8	Points per possession	1.04 #27
105.4 #9	Pace (possessions)	101.7 #23
Shooting
55.8 #6	Effective FG%	52.9 #18
37.6 #6	3-point %	38.6 #5
42.8 #16	3-point attempt rate	42.3 #17
26.1 #21	Free throw rate	28.0 #17
Possessions
15.1 #12	Turnover rate	20.4 #30
30.0 #7	Offensive rebound rate	26.5 #21
27.3 #11	Assists per game	24.3 #26
Defense
108.7 #8	Points allowed	113.8 #15
1.04 #4	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #22
50.5 #5	Opponent effective FG%	56.9 #28
31.2 #6	Opponent 3-point %	38.2 #26
15.6 #17	Turnovers forced	17.0 #8
75.4 #8	Defensive rebound rate	70.9 #20
9.0 #13	Steals per game	11.3 #3
4.3 #20	Blocks per game	4.2 #22

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Timberwolves

4-3 overall · 1-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Spurs111–121
Wvs Clippers127–101
Lvs Warriors114–119
L@ Cavaliers125–127
Wvs Raptors117–94

A week or more of rest.

Clippers

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Warriors112–124
L@ Timberwolves101–127
Lvs Lakers87–103
L@ Thunder101–108
L@ Lakers117–125

A week or more of rest.

Timberwolves @ Clippers

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Timberwolves

Clippers

Timberwolves has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Timberwolves

Clippers