Minnesota Timberwolves at Los Angeles Lakers: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Apr 9, 10:00 PM ETcrypto.com Arena · at Lakers · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Timberwolves and Lakers
MIN	This season	LAL
4-3	Record	5-2
6-1	ATS	4-3
4-3	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIN 118–115 · win probability MIN 58%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 233.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

MIN 3, LAL 3 · 2026-27 so far

MINBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MIN 30.0%, LAL 26.8%. Defensive: MIN 75.4%, LAL 67.4%

MINBig

MIN offense vs LAL defense

Offense 3rd of 30 against a defense 17th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

MIN has played the 7th-hardest schedule, LAL the 16th. A record against a soft schedule means less

LALSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: MIN 26.1, LAL 37.2. Allowed: MIN 28.9, LAL 30.7

MINSmall

Three-pointers

MIN hits 37.6% and allows 31.2%; LAL hits 38.9% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 42.8% and 45.7% of their shots

LALSmall

Home court

LAL at home. This season: LAL 3-1 at home, MIN 2-2 away

LALSmall

LAL offense vs MIN defense

Offense 4th of 30 against a defense 8th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: MIN plays 105.4 a game (9th fastest), LAL 102.9 (17th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: MIN 55.8 and allows 50.5; LAL 60.1 and allows 53.7

Even

Recent form

Last 5: MIN 4-1 ATS, margin +6.4; LAL 3-2 ATS, margin +1.4

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MIN 15.1%, LAL 18.3%. Forced: MIN 15.6%, LAL 17.8%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MIN 100%, LAL 100%. Transfers in: MIN 0, LAL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIN WWLWW	6-1	86%	4-0	—
LAL WLWLW	4-3	57%	2-2	—

Venue/role: MIN away; LAL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIN UOOOO	4-3	57%	4-3
LAL OOUUO	4-3	57%	5-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MINlast 7	4-3 57%	6-1 86%	4-3 57%
LALlast 7	5-2 71%	4-3 57%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Timberwolves

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 11	vs HOU	W136–132WO

Lakers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 11	vs PHX	W101–73WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 24 since 2021-22

MIN 14–10 LALMIN leads · 24 games since 2021-22 · LAL has won the last 3 meetings · MIN 14-10 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 10, 2025-26	MIN 106 @ LAL 120	LAL +2.5	LAL W
Oct 29, 2025-26	LAL 116 @ MIN 115	MIN -7.5	LAL W
Oct 24, 2025-26	MIN 110 @ LAL 128	LAL +1.5	LAL W
Apr 30, 2024-25	MIN 103 @ LAL 96	LAL -5.5	MIN W
Apr 27, 2024-25	LAL 113 @ MIN 116	MIN -2.5	MIN W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Timberwolves

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +12.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MIA	W 131-106	+1.5	W +26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	@ORL	W 115-93	+1.5	W +23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	vsTOR	W 117-94	-3.5	W +19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 26	@CLE	L 125-127	+3.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsGS	L 114-119	-3.5	L −8.5	227.5	O 233
Oct 30	vsLAC	W 127-101	-6.5	W +19.5	222.5	O 228
Oct 31	@SA	L 111-121	+12.5	W +2.5	230.5	O 232

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

+26.5

ORL

W 115-93

+23.5

TOR

W 117-94

+19.5

CLE

L 125-127

+1.5

L 114-119

−8.5

LAC

W 127-101

+19.5

L 111-121

+2.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +12.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

−3.5

ORL

W 115-93

−26.5

TOR

W 117-94

−17.5

CLE

L 125-127

+17.5

L 114-119

+5.5

LAC

W 127-101

+5.5

L 111-121

+1.5

over 4under 3avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Lakers

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

W W W L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

W L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

U O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsGS	W 127-105	-6.5	W +15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsLAC	W 125-117	-8.5	L −0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@UTAH	W 132-123	-6.5	W +2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 27	vsPOR	L 129-136	-1.5	L −8.5	234.5	O 265
Oct 28	@LAC	W 103-87	+1.5	W +17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@GS	L 95-112	-2.5	L −19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsTOR	W 131-125	-3.5	W +2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 127-105

+15.5

LAC

W 125-117

−0.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+2.5

POR

L 129-136

−8.5

LAC

W 103-87

+17.5

L 95-112

−19.5

TOR

W 131-125

+2.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 127-105

−1.5

LAC

W 125-117

+16.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+17.5

POR

L 129-136

+30.5

LAC

W 103-87

−34.5

L 95-112

−27.5

TOR

W 131-125

+31.5

over 4under 3avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Timberwolves has the better starters

Position by position: Timberwolves 3, Lakers 1, even 1

TimberwolvesBetterLakers

G A. Dosunmu15.3 pts · 5 reb · 3.4 ast Score 42

LALBig

G A. Reaves23.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 5.1 ast Score 82

G L. Ball14.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 6.3 ast Score 91

Even

G L. Doncic37.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 79

F J. McDaniels17.3 pts · 6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 96

MINBig

G M. Thybulle9 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 50

F J. Kuminga12.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.6 ast Score 92

MINSmall

F J. LaRavia5.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 70

C R. Gobert7 pts · 12.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 98

MINBig

C W. Kessler14.3 pts · 9.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42

TimberwolvesBetterLakers

MIN offense3rd of 30 · +3.7

MINBig

LAL defense17th of 30 · -0.2

MIN defense8th of 30 · +3.6

Even

LAL offense4th of 30 · +3.2

Backcourt+12.6 · 2 players

LALBig

Backcourt+24.2 · 3 players

Frontcourt+46.4 · 3 players

MINBig

Frontcourt+7.4 · 2 players

Bench+0.3 · 5 players

LALBig

Bench+6.7 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMIN betterLAL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Timberwolves

Guards

A. Dosunmu29 minL. Ball25 minT. Shannon22 minB. Hyland12 minJ. Clark9 minZ. Pullin8 min

Forwards

J. McDaniels33 minJ. Kuminga30 minC. Williams24 minJ. Beringer19 minT. Lyles16 minI. Evans3 min

Centers

R. Gobert30 min

Out

A. EdwardsOut

Lakers

Guards

A. Reaves36 minL. Doncic36 minM. Thybulle25 minQ. Grimes27 minC. Sexton18 minJ. Hardy16 min

Forwards

J. LaRavia23 minS. Mamukelashvili24 minJ. Vanderbilt15 minK. Looney8 minA. KalumaNewA. OkerekeNew

Centers

W. Kessler31 min

Out

Z. WilliamsOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MIN120.0 #6

LAL120.3 #5

Points per possession

MIN1.13 #8

LAL1.18 #2

Pace (possessions)

MIN105.4 #9

LAL102.9 #17

Shooting

Effective FG%

MIN55.8 #6

LAL60.1 #1

3-point %

MIN37.6 #6

LAL38.9 #4

3-point attempt rate

MIN42.8 #16

LAL45.7 #9

Free throw rate

MIN26.1 #21

LAL37.2 #2

Possessions

Turnover rate

MIN15.1 #12

LAL18.3 #28

Offensive rebound rate

MIN30.0 #7

LAL26.8 #19

Assists per game

MIN27.3 #11

LAL23.4 #27

Defense

Points allowed

MIN108.7 #8

LAL115.0 #17

Points allowed per possession

MIN1.04 #4

LAL1.11 #19

Opponent effective FG%

MIN50.5 #5

LAL53.7 #17

Opponent 3-point %

MIN31.2 #6

LAL36.7 #22

Turnovers forced

MIN15.6 #17

LAL17.8 #4

Defensive rebound rate

MIN75.4 #8

LAL67.4 #29

Steals per game

MIN9.0 #13

LAL10.4 #4

Blocks per game

MIN4.3 #20

LAL6.7 #3

MIN		LAL
Scoring
120.0 #6	Points per game	120.3 #5
1.13 #8	Points per possession	1.18 #2
105.4 #9	Pace (possessions)	102.9 #17
Shooting
55.8 #6	Effective FG%	60.1 #1
37.6 #6	3-point %	38.9 #4
42.8 #16	3-point attempt rate	45.7 #9
26.1 #21	Free throw rate	37.2 #2
Possessions
15.1 #12	Turnover rate	18.3 #28
30.0 #7	Offensive rebound rate	26.8 #19
27.3 #11	Assists per game	23.4 #27
Defense
108.7 #8	Points allowed	115.0 #17
1.04 #4	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #19
50.5 #5	Opponent effective FG%	53.7 #17
31.2 #6	Opponent 3-point %	36.7 #22
15.6 #17	Turnovers forced	17.8 #4
75.4 #8	Defensive rebound rate	67.4 #29
9.0 #13	Steals per game	10.4 #4
4.3 #20	Blocks per game	6.7 #3

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Timberwolves

4-3 overall · 1-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Spurs111–121
Wvs Clippers127–101
Lvs Warriors114–119
L@ Cavaliers125–127
Wvs Raptors117–94

A week or more of rest.

Lakers

5-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Raptors131–125
L@ Warriors95–112
W@ Clippers103–87
Lvs Trail Blazers129–136
W@ Jazz132–123

A week or more of rest.

Timberwolves @ Lakers

What could decide it

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Timberwolves

Lakers

Timberwolves has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Timberwolves

Lakers