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NBA · Tue, Apr 6

Mavericks @ Lakers

crypto.com Arena · at Lakers · Conference game
#17DALMavericks
@
#10LALLakers
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
DALThis seasonLAL
4-2Record5-2
4-2ATS4-3
2-4O/U4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LAL 119–115 · win probability LAL 63%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 234.1
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LAL has more of the edges

DAL 2, LAL 4 · 2026-27 so far
Context
Schedule so far
DAL has played the 2nd-hardest schedule, LAL the 16th. A record against a soft schedule means less
LALBig
LAL offense vs DAL defense
Offense 4th of 30 against a defense 16th, on the model’s ratings
LALSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: DAL 21.4, LAL 37.2. Allowed: DAL 27.2, LAL 30.7
LALSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: DAL 16.8%, LAL 18.3%. Forced: DAL 14.5%, LAL 17.8%
DALSmall
Three-pointers
DAL hits 35.1% and allows 29.7%; LAL hits 38.9% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 42.1% and 45.7% of their shots
DALSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: DAL 27.8%, LAL 26.8%. Defensive: DAL 69.4%, LAL 67.4%
LALSmall
Home court
LAL at home. This season: LAL 3-1 at home, DAL 2-1 away
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: DAL 56.9 and allows 51.3; LAL 60.1 and allows 53.7
Even
Recent form
Last 5: DAL 4-1 ATS, margin +6.6; LAL 3-2 ATS, margin +1.4
Even
DAL offense vs LAL defense
Offense 16th of 30 against a defense 17th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 103 possessions: DAL plays 102.8 a game (18th fastest), LAL 102.9 (17th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: DAL 100%, LAL 100%. Transfers in: DAL 0, LAL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelLAL -4.6
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model234.1
Model edge—
Projected score
DAL 114.8 · LAL 119.3
Win probability
LAL 63%
1st half
Spread
LAL -2.4
Total
117.0
Projected score
DAL 57.3 · LAL 59.7
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Lakers has the better starters

Position by position: Mavericks 0, Lakers 1, even 4
MavericksBetterLakers
G M. Christie8.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 2 ast Score 9
LALBig
G A. Reaves23.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 5.1 ast Score 82
F P. Washington13.8 pts · 8.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 78
Even
G L. Doncic37.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 79
F C. Flagg26.8 pts · 6 reb · 6.6 ast Score 49
Even
G M. Thybulle9 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 50
F Z. Risacher9.5 pts · 6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 65
Even
F J. LaRavia5.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 70
F D. Gafford8.5 pts · 7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 46
Even
C W. Kessler14.3 pts · 9.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42
MavericksBetterLakers
DAL offense16th of 30 · +0.6
Even
LAL defense17th of 30 · -0.2
DAL defense16th of 30 · -0.1
LALBig
LAL offense4th of 30 · +3.2
Backcourt-6.6 · 1 player
LALBig
Backcourt+24.2 · 3 players
Frontcourt+16.0 · 4 players
DALBig
Frontcourt+7.4 · 2 players
Bench+2.7 · 5 players
LALBig
Bench+6.7 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestDAL betterLAL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Mavericks
Guards
M. Christie27 minM. Sasser19 minJ. Howard12 min
Forwards
P. Washington34 minC. Flagg32 minZ. Risacher30 minD. Gafford24 minN. Marshall28 minC. Martin20 min
Centers
M. Cisse14 min
Out
S. de LarreaOutK. IrvingDay-To-Day
Lakers
Guards
A. Reaves36 minL. Doncic36 minM. Thybulle25 minQ. Grimes27 minC. Sexton18 minJ. Hardy16 min
Forwards
J. LaRavia23 minS. Mamukelashvili24 minJ. Vanderbilt15 minK. Looney8 minA. KalumaNewA. OkerekeNew
Centers
W. Kessler31 min
Out
Z. WilliamsOut
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
DALLAL
Scoring
114.3 #14Points per game120.3 #5
1.12 #11Points per possession1.18 #2
102.8 #18Pace (possessions)102.9 #17
Shooting
56.9 #2Effective FG%60.1 #1
35.1 #143-point %38.9 #4
42.1 #183-point attempt rate45.7 #9
21.4 #29Free throw rate37.2 #2
Possessions
16.8 #23Turnover rate18.3 #28
27.8 #13Offensive rebound rate26.8 #19
27.0 #12Assists per game23.4 #27
Defense
111.8 #14Points allowed115.0 #17
1.08 #13Points allowed per possession1.11 #19
51.3 #9Opponent effective FG%53.7 #17
29.7 #2Opponent 3-point %36.7 #22
14.5 #24Turnovers forced17.8 #4
69.4 #25Defensive rebound rate67.4 #29
8.8 #16Steals per game10.4 #4
6.8 #2Blocks per game6.7 #3
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Mavericks

4-2 overall · 2-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Rockets116–111
  • Wvs Thunder120–96
  • W@ Heat113–109
  • Lvs Spurs106–122
  • W@ Pacers121–105

A week or more of rest.

Lakers

5-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Raptors131–125
  • L@ Warriors95–112
  • W@ Clippers103–87
  • Lvs Trail Blazers129–136
  • W@ Jazz132–123

A week or more of rest.