Indiana Pacers at Toronto Raptors: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Apr 4, 3:30 PM ETScotiabank Arena · at Raptors · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Pacers and Raptors
IND	This season	TOR
2-5	Record	3-3
3-4	ATS	3-3
3-4	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TOR 120–108 · win probability TOR 80%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 228.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TOR has more of the edges

IND 1, TOR 5 · 2026-27 so far

TORBig

IND offense vs TOR defense

Offense 24th of 30 against a defense 9th, on the model’s ratings

TORBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: IND 23.1%, TOR 32.6%. Defensive: IND 72.7%, TOR 73.4%

TORBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: IND 14.8%, TOR 13.5%. Forced: IND 14.9%, TOR 20.8%

TORBig

TOR offense vs IND defense

Offense 14th of 30 against a defense 25th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

IND has played the 29th-hardest schedule, TOR the 21st. A record against a soft schedule means less

INDSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: IND 31.2, TOR 27.7. Allowed: IND 32.1, TOR 41.5

TORSmall

Home court

TOR at home. This season: TOR 2-1 at home, IND 2-2 away

Even

Three-pointers

IND hits 34.1% and allows 35.9%; TOR hits 32.0% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 43.1% and 38.1% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: IND plays 103.1 a game (15th fastest), TOR 105.5 (8th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: IND 53.9 and allows 53.9; TOR 51.0 and allows 53.4

Even

Recent form

Last 5: IND 2-3 ATS, margin -2.8; TOR 2-3 ATS, margin +0.8

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: IND 100%, TOR 100%. Transfers in: IND 0, TOR 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IND WLWLL	3-4	43%	2-2	—
TOR WLWLL	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: IND away; TOR home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
IND OUUOU	3-4	43%	2-5
TOR UUOOO	3-3	50%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
INDlast 7	2-5 29%	3-4 43%	3-4 43%
TORlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Pacers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 6	@ CHA	L108–129LO
Apr 7	@ DET	L121–133WO
Apr 9	vs CLE	L108–117WU

Raptors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 6	vs PHI	L102–115LU
Apr 7	vs BKN	W136–101WO
Apr 9	@ ORL	L114–121LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

IND 7–11 TORTOR leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · TOR has won the last 4 meetings · IND 7-11 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 8, 2025-26	IND 104 @ TOR 122	TOR -7.5	TOR W
Jan 14, 2025-26	TOR 115 @ IND 101	IND -1.5	TOR W
Nov 26, 2025-26	IND 95 @ TOR 97	TOR -9.5	IND W
Nov 15, 2025-26	TOR 129 @ IND 111	IND +6.5	TOR W
Feb 26, 2024-25	TOR 91 @ IND 111	IND -11.5	IND W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Pacers

7 games played

Straight up

2-5

29% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −4.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −6.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-529%

W L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

O U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@NO	W 123-120	-2.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	vsDAL	L 105-121	-7.5	L −23.5	241.5	U 226
Oct 25	@BKN	W 136-109	-5.5	W +21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 26	@MIL	L 102-110	-3.5	L −11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsPHI	L 109-114	+7.5	W +2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	@MIA	L 125-145	+8.5	L −11.5	236.5	O 270
Nov 1	vsBKN	L 90-98	-3.5	L −11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 123-120

+0.5

DAL

L 105-121

−23.5

BKN

W 136-109

+21.5

MIL

L 102-110

−11.5

PHI

L 109-114

+2.5

MIA

L 125-145

−11.5

BKN

L 90-98

−11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 123-120

+4.5

DAL

L 105-121

−15.5

BKN

W 136-109

+13.5

MIL

L 102-110

−27.5

PHI

L 109-114

−11.5

MIA

L 125-145

+33.5

BKN

L 90-98

−42.5

over 3under 4avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Raptors

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHI	W 135-92	-10.5	W +32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@WSH	W 112-102	-9.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 25	@MIN	L 94-117	+3.5	L −19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 28	vsORL	W 129-99	-5.5	W +24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	vsORL	L 114-121	-5.5	L −12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	@LAL	L 125-131	+3.5	L −2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

+32.5

WSH

W 112-102

+0.5

MIN

L 94-117

−19.5

ORL

W 129-99

+24.5

ORL

L 114-121

−12.5

LAL

L 125-131

−2.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

−10.5

WSH

W 112-102

−22.5

MIN

L 94-117

−17.5

ORL

W 129-99

+3.5

ORL

L 114-121

+8.5

LAL

L 125-131

+31.5

over 3under 3avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Raptors has the better starters

Position by position: Pacers 1, Raptors 2, even 2

PacersBetterRaptors

G A. Nembhard18.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 70

INDBig

G I. Quickley16.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.2 ast Score 33

G K. Oubre9.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 32

TORSmall

G J. Walter12.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 64

G A. Nesmith12.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65

Even

F S. Barnes24.8 pts · 6.7 reb · 4.5 ast Score 68

F P. Siakam21.4 pts · 7.4 reb · 4 ast Score 74

Even

F R. Barrett19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 88

C J. Huff6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 10

TORBig

F T. Jackson-Davis3.8 pts · 3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 52

PacersBetterRaptors

IND offense24th of 30 · -2.3

TORBig

TOR defense9th of 30 · +3.1

IND defense25th of 30 · -3.8

TORBig

TOR offense14th of 30 · +0.9

Backcourt+10.3 · 3 players

INDBig

Backcourt+4.4 · 2 players

Frontcourt+4.0 · 2 players

TORBig

Frontcourt+19.0 · 3 players

Bench-26.3 · 5 players

TORBig

Bench+2.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestIND betterTOR betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Pacers

Guards

A. Nembhard33 minK. Oubre23 minA. Nesmith23 minQ. Jackson20 minK. Brown12 minB. Smith6 min

Forwards

P. Siakam32 minJ. Walker22 minL. Nance16 minJ. Slawson13 min

Centers

J. Huff17 min

Out

I. ZubacOutO. ToppinDay-To-DayT. HaliburtonOutB. SheppardOut

Raptors

Guards

I. Quickley31 minJ. Walter29 minJ. Shead22 minA. Martin7 minJ. Bradley4 min

Forwards

S. Barnes33 minR. Barrett32 minT. Jackson-Davis8 minC. Murray-Boyles19 minK. Anderson18 minJ. Battle15 min

Out

J. PoeltlDay-To-DayK. LeonardOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

IND112.9 #18

TOR118.2 #10

Points per possession

IND1.10 #17

TOR1.11 #13

Pace (possessions)

IND103.1 #15

TOR105.5 #8

Shooting

Effective FG%

IND53.9 #14

TOR51.0 #22

3-point %

IND34.1 #18

TOR32.0 #24

3-point attempt rate

IND43.1 #15

TOR38.1 #25

Free throw rate

IND31.2 #12

TOR27.7 #18

Possessions

Turnover rate

IND14.8 #10

TOR13.5 #3

Offensive rebound rate

IND23.1 #27

TOR32.6 #2

Assists per game

IND28.0 #7

TOR29.2 #2

Defense

Points allowed

IND116.7 #23

TOR110.3 #13

Points allowed per possession

IND1.13 #23

TOR1.05 #5

Opponent effective FG%

IND53.9 #19

TOR53.4 #16

Opponent 3-point %

IND35.9 #20

TOR36.7 #21

Turnovers forced

IND14.9 #19

TOR20.8 #1

Defensive rebound rate

IND72.7 #16

TOR73.4 #13

Steals per game

IND6.9 #27

TOR12.7 #2

Blocks per game

IND4.0 #26

TOR4.3 #19

IND		TOR
Scoring
112.9 #18	Points per game	118.2 #10
1.10 #17	Points per possession	1.11 #13
103.1 #15	Pace (possessions)	105.5 #8
Shooting
53.9 #14	Effective FG%	51.0 #22
34.1 #18	3-point %	32.0 #24
43.1 #15	3-point attempt rate	38.1 #25
31.2 #12	Free throw rate	27.7 #18
Possessions
14.8 #10	Turnover rate	13.5 #3
23.1 #27	Offensive rebound rate	32.6 #2
28.0 #7	Assists per game	29.2 #2
Defense
116.7 #23	Points allowed	110.3 #13
1.13 #23	Points allowed per possession	1.05 #5
53.9 #19	Opponent effective FG%	53.4 #16
35.9 #20	Opponent 3-point %	36.7 #21
14.9 #19	Turnovers forced	20.8 #1
72.7 #16	Defensive rebound rate	73.4 #13
6.9 #27	Steals per game	12.7 #2
4.0 #26	Blocks per game	4.3 #19

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pacers

2-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nets90–98
L@ Heat125–145
Lvs 76ers109–114
L@ Bucks102–110
W@ Nets136–109

A week or more of rest.

Raptors

3-3 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Lakers125–131
Lvs Magic114–121
Wvs Magic129–99
L@ Timberwolves94–117
W@ Wizards112–102

A week or more of rest.

Pacers @ Raptors

What could decide it: TOR has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Pacers

Raptors

Raptors has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Pacers

Raptors