Chicago Bulls at Houston Rockets: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Apr 4, 4:00 PM ETToyota Center (Houston) · at Rockets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Bulls and Rockets
CHI	This season	HOU
1-5	Record	6-1
3-3	ATS	6-1
2-4	O/U	5-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HOU 127–108 · win probability HOU 91%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

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model 234.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

CHI 0, HOU 8 · 2026-27 so far

HOUBig

Three-pointers

CHI hits 28.1% and allows 39.3%; HOU hits 39.0% and allows 30.2%. Threes are 47.9% and 38.1% of their shots

HOUBig

HOU offense vs CHI defense

Offense 6th of 30 against a defense 30th, on the model’s ratings

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Shooting

Effective FG%: CHI 48.2 and allows 56.0; HOU 56.6 and allows 52.1

Context

Tempo

About 106 possessions: CHI plays 109.8 a game (1st fastest), HOU 101.6 (24th). Faster games mean more points

HOUSmall

CHI offense vs HOU defense

Offense 12th of 30 against a defense 4th, on the model’s ratings

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Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CHI 29.2%, HOU 32.4%. Defensive: CHI 69.8%, HOU 73.2%

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Turnovers

Turnover rate: CHI 16.2%, HOU 15.1%. Forced: CHI 14.7%, HOU 15.7%

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Free throws

Free throw rate: CHI 38.3, HOU 31.9. Allowed: CHI 33.5, HOU 24.7

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Home court

HOU at home. This season: HOU 3-0 at home, CHI 1-3 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: CHI 3-2 ATS, margin -10.4; HOU 4-1 ATS, margin +13.0

Context

Schedule so far

CHI has played the 14th-hardest schedule, HOU the 12th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CHI 100%, HOU 100%. Transfers in: CHI 0, HOU 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHI WLLWW	3-3	50%	2-2	—
HOU WWWLW	6-1	86%	3-0	—

Venue/role: CHI away; HOU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHI OUUOU	2-4	33%	1-5
HOU OOOOU	5-2	71%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHIlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%
HOUlast 7	6-1 86%	6-1 86%	5-2 71%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Bulls

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 6	@ MIL	W132–125WO
Apr 7	vs CHA	L99–131LU
Apr 9	vs MIL	W132–125WO

Rockets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 7	vs SAC	W128–97WO
Apr 9	vs POR	W106–99WU
Apr 11	@ MIN	L132–136LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

CHI 4–6 HOUHOU leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · CHI 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 23, 2025-26	HOU 124 @ CHI 132	CHI +8.5	CHI W
Jan 13, 2025-26	CHI 113 @ HOU 119	HOU -12.5	CHI W
Mar 15, 2024-25	CHI 114 @ HOU 117	HOU -8.5	CHI W
Nov 17, 2024-25	HOU 143 @ CHI 107	CHI +4.5	HOU W
Mar 21, 2023-24	CHI 117 @ HOU 127	HOU -3.5	HOU W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bulls

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@TOR	L 92-135	+10.5	L −32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@MIL	W 132-125	+1.5	W +8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	vsWSH	L 120-124	-1.5	L −5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@BOS	L 99-134	+14.5	L −20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 28	vsNY	L 127-133	+7.5	W +1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@BOS	L 111-125	+14.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−32.5

MIL

W 132-125

+8.5

WSH

L 120-124

−5.5

BOS

L 99-134

−20.5

L 127-133

+1.5

BOS

L 111-125

+0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−10.5

MIL

W 132-125

+15.5

WSH

L 120-124

−0.5

BOS

L 99-134

−0.5

L 127-133

+26.5

BOS

L 111-125

−0.5

over 2under 4avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Rockets

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +8.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-2

71% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-271%

O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsDAL	W 128-110	-9.5	W +8.5	230.5	O 238
Oct 23	@SA	W 114-110	+4.5	W +8.5	224.5	U 224
Oct 24	@ATL	W 121-114	-1.5	W +5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	vsATL	W 120-110	-4.5	W +5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	@MIL	W 132-100	-8.5	W +23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 30	@DAL	L 111-116	-5.5	L −10.5	223.5	O 227
Oct 31	vsOKC	W 119-98	-2.5	W +18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+8.5

W 114-110

+8.5

ATL

W 121-114

+5.5

ATL

W 120-110

+5.5

MIL

W 132-100

+23.5

DAL

L 111-116

−10.5

OKC

W 119-98

+18.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+7.5

W 114-110

−0.5

ATL

W 121-114

+7.5

ATL

W 120-110

+1.5

MIL

W 132-100

+5.5

DAL

L 111-116

+3.5

OKC

W 119-98

−2.5

over 5under 2avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Rockets has the better starters

Position by position: Bulls 0, Rockets 4, even 1

BullsBetterRockets

G N. Powell20.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 2 ast Score 71

Even

G A. Thompson16.3 pts · 6.6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 60

G J. Giddey8.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 7.5 ast Score 29

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G F. VanVleet13 pts · 4 reb · 6.4 ast Score 94

F C. Wilson21.2 pts · 6.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 6

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F J. Smith19 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.7 ast Score 79

F M. Buzelis14.5 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 4

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F K. Durant22 pts · 5.6 reb · 3.3 ast Score 82

F P. Williams7 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 19

HOUBig

C A. Sengun22.8 pts · 9 reb · 7.4 ast Score 84

BullsBetterRockets

CHI offense12th of 30 · +1.2

HOUSmall

HOU defense4th of 30 · +5.2

CHI defense30th of 30 · -9.4

HOUBig

HOU offense6th of 30 · +2.9

Backcourt+5.1 · 2 players

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Backcourt+19.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt-24.0 · 3 players

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Frontcourt+30.0 · 3 players

Bench-6.9 · 5 players

HOUBig

Bench+16.2 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCHI betterHOU betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Bulls

Guards

N. Powell30 minJ. Giddey27 minT. Jones18 minB. Hield14 minJ. Hawkins14 minD. Swain12 min

Forwards

C. Wilson34 minM. Buzelis25 minP. Williams21 minL. Miller19 minZ. Collins18 minI. Okoro18 min

Out

J. SmithDay-To-DayT. AwakaDay-To-Day

Rockets

Guards

A. Thompson34 minF. VanVleet31 minM. Smart25 minB. Bogdanovic15 minS. Pedulla4 minB. Thornton3 min

Forwards

J. Smith34 minK. Durant34 minT. Eason24 minJ. Tate9 minI. Crawford7 min

Centers

A. Sengun34 minO. Tshiebwe17 min

Out

S. AdamsOutC. CapelaDay-To-DayR. SheppardDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CHI113.5 #16

HOU120.7 #3

Points per possession

CHI1.04 #26

HOU1.20 #1

Pace (possessions)

CHI109.8 #1

HOU101.6 #24

Shooting

Effective FG%

CHI48.2 #30

HOU56.6 #3

3-point %

CHI28.1 #30

HOU39.0 #3

3-point attempt rate

CHI47.9 #4

HOU38.1 #26

Free throw rate

CHI38.3 #1

HOU31.9 #8

Possessions

Turnover rate

CHI16.2 #20

HOU15.1 #13

Offensive rebound rate

CHI29.2 #9

HOU32.4 #3

Assists per game

CHI24.3 #25

HOU28.1 #5

Defense

Points allowed

CHI129.3 #30

HOU108.3 #7

Points allowed per possession

CHI1.17 #27

HOU1.06 #8

Opponent effective FG%

CHI56.0 #26

HOU52.1 #10

Opponent 3-point %

CHI39.3 #28

HOU30.2 #4

Turnovers forced

CHI14.7 #21

HOU15.7 #16

Defensive rebound rate

CHI69.8 #24

HOU73.2 #14

Steals per game

CHI8.7 #17

HOU9.7 #6

Blocks per game

CHI5.0 #12

HOU5.9 #8

CHI		HOU
Scoring
113.5 #16	Points per game	120.7 #3
1.04 #26	Points per possession	1.20 #1
109.8 #1	Pace (possessions)	101.6 #24
Shooting
48.2 #30	Effective FG%	56.6 #3
28.1 #30	3-point %	39.0 #3
47.9 #4	3-point attempt rate	38.1 #26
38.3 #1	Free throw rate	31.9 #8
Possessions
16.2 #20	Turnover rate	15.1 #13
29.2 #9	Offensive rebound rate	32.4 #3
24.3 #25	Assists per game	28.1 #5
Defense
129.3 #30	Points allowed	108.3 #7
1.17 #27	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #8
56.0 #26	Opponent effective FG%	52.1 #10
39.3 #28	Opponent 3-point %	30.2 #4
14.7 #21	Turnovers forced	15.7 #16
69.8 #24	Defensive rebound rate	73.2 #14
8.7 #17	Steals per game	9.7 #6
5.0 #12	Blocks per game	5.9 #8

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bulls

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Celtics111–125
Lvs Knicks127–133
L@ Celtics99–134
Lvs Wizards120–124
W@ Bucks132–125

A week or more of rest.

Rockets

6-1 overall · 3-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Thunder119–98
L@ Mavericks111–116
W@ Bucks132–100
Wvs Hawks120–110
W@ Hawks121–114

A week or more of rest.

Bulls @ Rockets

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Bulls

Rockets

Rockets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Bulls

Rockets