Philadelphia 76ers at Toronto Raptors: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Apr 6, 7:30 PM ETScotiabank Arena · at Raptors · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: 76ers and Raptors
PHI	This season	TOR
6-1	Record	3-3
4-3	ATS	3-3
2-5	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TOR 113–108 · win probability TOR 65%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 221.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PHI has more of the edges

PHI 4, TOR 3 · 2026-27 so far

TORBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: PHI 19.9%, TOR 32.6%. Defensive: PHI 70.8%, TOR 73.4%

TORBig

PHI offense vs TOR defense

Offense 22nd of 30 against a defense 9th, on the model’s ratings

PHISmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: PHI 28.7, TOR 27.7. Allowed: PHI 28.5, TOR 41.5

PHISmall

Three-pointers

PHI hits 34.0% and allows 32.1%; TOR hits 32.0% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 39.5% and 38.1% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: PHI plays 102.4 a game (19th fastest), TOR 105.5 (8th). Faster games mean more points

PHISmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: PHI 50.8 and allows 49.8; TOR 51.0 and allows 53.4

TORSmall

Home court

TOR at home. This season: TOR 2-1 at home, PHI 3-0 away

PHISmall

TOR offense vs PHI defense

Offense 14th of 30 against a defense 10th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: PHI 12.3%, TOR 13.5%. Forced: PHI 17.0%, TOR 20.8%

Context

Schedule so far

PHI has played the 20th-hardest schedule, TOR the 21st. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Recent form

Last 5: PHI 2-3 ATS, margin +2.6; TOR 2-3 ATS, margin +0.8

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: PHI 100%, TOR 100%. Transfers in: PHI 0, TOR 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PHI LLLWW	4-3	57%	2-1	—
TOR WLWLL	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: PHI away; TOR home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PHI OUUUO	2-5	29%	6-1
TOR UUOOO	3-3	50%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PHIlast 7	6-1 86%	4-3 57%	2-5 29%
TORlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

76ers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 8	@ MIA	L109–119LU
Apr 11	vs CHA	W109–104WO

Raptors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 7	vs BKN	W136–101WO
Apr 9	@ ORL	L114–121LO
Apr 11	@ BKN	W136–101WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 26 since 2021-22

PHI 14–12 TORPHI leads · 26 games since 2021-22 · PHI 12-14 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 12, 2025-26	PHI 115 @ TOR 102	TOR +3.5	PHI W
Jan 11, 2025-26	PHI 115 @ TOR 116	TOR +1.5	TOR W
Nov 19, 2025-26	TOR 121 @ PHI 112	PHI +2.5	TOR W
Nov 8, 2025-26	TOR 120 @ PHI 130	PHI -5.5	PHI W
Mar 30, 2024-25	TOR 127 @ PHI 109	PHI +6.5	TOR W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

76ers

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −15.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

W W L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-529%

U U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@NY	W 106-100	+4.5	W +10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 22	vsCLE	W 114-106	-2.5	W +5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsMIL	W 127-116	-12.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 25	vsDET	L 93-106	+1.5	L −11.5	228.5	U 199
Oct 28	@IND	W 114-109	-7.5	L −2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	vsNY	W 98-93	-2.5	W +2.5	224.5	U 191
Oct 31	@CHA	W 109-104	-1.5	W +3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 106-100

+10.5

CLE

W 114-106

+5.5

MIL

W 127-116

−1.5

DET

L 93-106

−11.5

IND

W 114-109

−2.5

W 98-93

+2.5

CHA

W 109-104

+3.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 106-100

−25.5

CLE

W 114-106

−17.5

MIL

W 127-116

+8.5

DET

L 93-106

−29.5

IND

W 114-109

−11.5

W 98-93

−33.5

CHA

W 109-104

+1.5

over 2under 5avg −15.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Raptors

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHI	W 135-92	-10.5	W +32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@WSH	W 112-102	-9.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 25	@MIN	L 94-117	+3.5	L −19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 28	vsORL	W 129-99	-5.5	W +24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	vsORL	L 114-121	-5.5	L −12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	@LAL	L 125-131	+3.5	L −2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

+32.5

WSH

W 112-102

+0.5

MIN

L 94-117

−19.5

ORL

W 129-99

+24.5

ORL

L 114-121

−12.5

LAL

L 125-131

−2.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

−10.5

WSH

W 112-102

−22.5

MIN

L 94-117

−17.5

ORL

W 129-99

+3.5

ORL

L 114-121

+8.5

LAL

L 125-131

+31.5

over 3under 3avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

76ers has the better starters

Position by position: 76ers 3, Raptors 2, even 0

76ersBetterRaptors

G T. Maxey29.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.4 ast Score 67

PHISmall

G I. Quickley16.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.2 ast Score 33

G J. Brown19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 35

TORSmall

G J. Walter12.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 64

G V. Edgecombe11.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 96

PHISmall

F S. Barnes24.8 pts · 6.7 reb · 4.5 ast Score 68

F L. James16.4 pts · 7 reb · 7 ast Score 54

TORSmall

F R. Barrett19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 88

F D. Wade3.6 pts · 3 reb · 2.6 ast Score 90

PHIBig

F T. Jackson-Davis3.8 pts · 3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 52

76ersBetterRaptors

PHI offense22nd of 30 · -1.7

TORBig

TOR defense9th of 30 · +3.1

PHI defense10th of 30 · +3.0

Even

TOR offense14th of 30 · +0.9

Backcourt+25.4 · 3 players

PHIBig

Backcourt+4.4 · 2 players

Frontcourt+14.0 · 2 players

TORBig

Frontcourt+19.0 · 3 players

Bench-19.8 · 5 players

TORBig

Bench+2.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestPHI betterTOR betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

76ers

Guards

T. Maxey38 minJ. Brown37 minV. Edgecombe33 minA. Simons25 minK. Caldwell-Pope24 minC. Love21 min

Forwards

L. James33 minD. Wade28 minJ. Edwards15 minJ. Walker10 min

Centers

A. Bona14 minT. FallNew

Out

J. EmbiidDay-To-Day

Raptors

Guards

I. Quickley31 minJ. Walter29 minJ. Shead22 minA. Martin7 minJ. Bradley4 min

Forwards

S. Barnes33 minR. Barrett32 minT. Jackson-Davis8 minC. Murray-Boyles19 minK. Anderson18 minJ. Battle15 min

Out

J. PoeltlDay-To-DayK. LeonardOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

PHI108.7 #23

TOR118.2 #10

Points per possession

PHI1.06 #22

TOR1.11 #13

Pace (possessions)

PHI102.4 #19

TOR105.5 #8

Shooting

Effective FG%

PHI50.8 #25

TOR51.0 #22

3-point %

PHI34.0 #20

TOR32.0 #24

3-point attempt rate

PHI39.5 #23

TOR38.1 #25

Free throw rate

PHI28.7 #16

TOR27.7 #18

Possessions

Turnover rate

PHI12.3 #1

TOR13.5 #3

Offensive rebound rate

PHI19.9 #30

TOR32.6 #2

Assists per game

PHI25.1 #22

TOR29.2 #2

Defense

Points allowed

PHI104.9 #2

TOR110.3 #13

Points allowed per possession

PHI1.03 #3

TOR1.05 #5

Opponent effective FG%

PHI49.8 #4

TOR53.4 #16

Opponent 3-point %

PHI32.1 #9

TOR36.7 #21

Turnovers forced

PHI17.0 #9

TOR20.8 #1

Defensive rebound rate

PHI70.8 #21

TOR73.4 #13

Steals per game

PHI9.6 #7

TOR12.7 #2

Blocks per game

PHI5.0 #14

TOR4.3 #19

PHI		TOR
Scoring
108.7 #23	Points per game	118.2 #10
1.06 #22	Points per possession	1.11 #13
102.4 #19	Pace (possessions)	105.5 #8
Shooting
50.8 #25	Effective FG%	51.0 #22
34.0 #20	3-point %	32.0 #24
39.5 #23	3-point attempt rate	38.1 #25
28.7 #16	Free throw rate	27.7 #18
Possessions
12.3 #1	Turnover rate	13.5 #3
19.9 #30	Offensive rebound rate	32.6 #2
25.1 #22	Assists per game	29.2 #2
Defense
104.9 #2	Points allowed	110.3 #13
1.03 #3	Points allowed per possession	1.05 #5
49.8 #4	Opponent effective FG%	53.4 #16
32.1 #9	Opponent 3-point %	36.7 #21
17.0 #9	Turnovers forced	20.8 #1
70.8 #21	Defensive rebound rate	73.4 #13
9.6 #7	Steals per game	12.7 #2
5.0 #14	Blocks per game	4.3 #19

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

76ers

6-1 overall · 6-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Hornets109–104
Wvs Knicks98–93
W@ Pacers114–109
Lvs Pistons93–106
Wvs Bucks127–116

A week or more of rest.

Raptors

3-3 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Lakers125–131
Lvs Magic114–121
Wvs Magic129–99
L@ Timberwolves94–117
W@ Wizards112–102

A week or more of rest.

76ers @ Raptors

What could decide it: PHI has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

76ers

Raptors

76ers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

76ers

Raptors