Little Caesars Arena · at Pistons · Conference game
LineNo line yet
Total—
 MIA | This season | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 2-4 | Record | 5-1 |
| 2-4 | ATS | 5-1 |
| 3-3 | O/U | 2-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects DET 119–110 · win probability DET 72%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 229.0
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: DET has more of the edges
MIA 0, DET 6 · 2026-27 so far
DETBigThree-pointers
MIA hits 34.1% and allows 40.6%; DET hits 36.3% and allows 32.5%. Threes are 41.7% and 43.3% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 104 possessions: MIA plays 106.2 a game (5th fastest), DET 100.9 (29th). Faster games mean more points
DETBigShooting
Effective FG%: MIA 54.6 and allows 56.8; DET 53.1 and allows 48.8
DETBigDET offense vs MIA defense
Offense 17th of 30 against a defense 26th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
MIA has played the 11th-hardest schedule, DET the 17th. A record against a soft schedule means less
DETSmallRecent form
Last 5: MIA 2-3 ATS, margin +1.2; DET 4-1 ATS, margin +8.0
DETSmallRebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MIA 24.5%, DET 27.2%. Defensive: MIA 72.3%, DET 72.8%
DETSmallHome court
DET at home. This season: DET 2-0 at home, MIA 1-1 away
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: MIA 27.3, DET 28.9. Allowed: MIA 23.2, DET 28.1
Even
MIA offense vs DET defense
Offense 1st of 30 against a defense 1st, on the model’s ratings
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MIA 14.1%, DET 15.6%. Forced: MIA 15.4%, DET 17.1%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MIA 100%, DET 100%. Transfers in: MIA 0, DET 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelDET -8.3
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model229.0
Model edge—
Projected score
MIA 110.3 · DET 118.6
Win probability
DET 72%
1st half
Spread
DET -4.5
Total
114.7
Projected score
MIA 55 · DET 59.6
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIAlast 6 | 2-4 33% | 2-4 33% | 3-3 50% |
| DETlast 6 | 5-1 83% | 5-1 83% | 2-4 33% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 19 since 2021-22
MIA 12–7 DETMIA leads · 19 games since 2021-22 · MIA 5-14 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026-27 | DET 128 @ MIA 111 | MIA +2.5 | DET W |
| Mar 8, 2025-26 | DET 110 @ MIA 121 | MIA +1.5 | MIA W |
| Jan 1, 2025-26 | MIA 118 @ DET 112 | DET -4.5 | MIA W |
| Nov 29, 2025-26 | DET 138 @ MIA 135 | MIA -3.5 | DET W |
| Mar 19, 2024-25 | DET 116 @ MIA 113 | MIA +4.5 | MIA W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Heat
6 games played
Straight up
2-4
33% wins
Against the spread
2-4
33% covers · avg −6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-3
50% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vs
MIN
MINL 106-131
−26.5
23
vsDET
DETL 111-128
−14.5
24
@
CHA
CHAL 110-115
−9.5
26
vs
DAL
DALL 109-113
−11.5
28
@
ATL
ATLW 129-117
+14.5
30
vs
IND
INDW 145-125
+11.5
covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsMIN
MINL 106-131
−3.5
23
vsDET
DETL 111-128
+3.5
24
@CHA
CHAL 110-115
−2.5
26
vsDAL
DALL 109-113
−18.5
28
@ATL
ATLW 129-117
+2.5
30
vsIND
INDW 145-125
+33.5
over 3under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Pistons
6 games played
Straight up
5-1
83% wins
Against the spread
5-1
83% covers · avg +5.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −11.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
20
vs
BOS
BOSW 121-113
+9.5
23
@MIA
MIAW 128-111
+14.5
25
@
PHI
PHIW 106-93
+11.5
27
@
NY
NYL 97-111
−9.5
28
vsCHA
CHAW 97-89
+0.5
30
@
BKN
BKNW 110-94
+7.5
covered 5didn’t cover 1avg +5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
20
vsBOS
BOSW 121-113
+13.5
23
@MIA
MIAW 128-111
+3.5
25
@PHI
PHIW 106-93
−29.5
27
@NY
NYL 97-111
−12.5
28
vsCHA
CHAW 97-89
−26.5
30
@BKN
BKNW 110-94
−18.5
over 2under 4avg −11.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Pistons has the better starters
Position by position: Heat 1, Pistons 2, even 2
HeatBetterPistons
G D. Mitchell16.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 8.2 ast
Score 48
=Even
G C. Cunningham22.2 pts · 5.5 reb · 7.2 ast
Score 47
G K. Thompson10.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.3 ast
Score 20
→DETBig
G A. Thompson8.8 pts · 7.4 reb · 5 ast
Score 79
F G. Antetokounmpo28.2 pts · 12.3 reb · 5.5 ast
Score 89
=Even
F D. Robinson16.8 pts · 2 reb · 2.2 ast
Score 77
F A. Wiggins10.8 pts · 3 reb · 1.3 ast
Score 62
→DETBig
F P. Reed13.8 pts · 7 reb · 2 ast
Score 97
C B. Adebayo16.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 3.3 ast
Score 66
←MIABig
F J. Collins9.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 0.5 ast
Score 30
HeatBetterPistons
MIA offense1st of 30 · +4.9
=Even
DET defense1st of 30 · +7.1
MIA defense26th of 30 · -5.2
→DETSmall
DET offense17th of 30 · -0.6
Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players
→DETBig
Backcourt+10.1 · 2 players
Frontcourt+23.1 · 3 players
←MIABig
Frontcourt+19.7 · 3 players
Bench-1.8 · 5 players
→DETBig
Bench+22.1 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestMIA betterDET betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
HeatGuards
D. Mitchell34 minK. Thompson21 minP. Larsson30 minD. Smith10 minR. Conwell4 min
Forwards
G. Antetokounmpo32 minA. Wiggins27 minB. Portis23 minS. Fontecchio17 minN. Jovic13 minM. Gardner9 min
Centers
B. Adebayo32 minN. Richards15 min
Out
T. HardawayDay-To-Day
PistonsGuards
C. Cunningham34 minA. Thompson26 minD. Jenkins25 minE. Harkless21 minK. Huerter21 minJ. Green19 min
Forwards
D. Robinson30 minP. Reed27 minJ. Collins27 minT. Prince24 minR. Holland16 minT. Smith8 min
Centers
I. Jones5 min
Out
I. JoeOutJ. DurenOut
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
MIA118.3 #9DET109.8 #21Points per possession
MIA1.11 #14DET1.09 #18Pace (possessions)
MIA106.2 #5DET100.9 #29Shooting
Effective FG%
MIA54.6 #12DET53.1 #173-point %
MIA34.1 #19DET36.3 #93-point attempt rate
MIA41.7 #20DET43.3 #13Free throw rate
MIA27.3 #19DET28.9 #14Possessions
Turnover rate
MIA14.1 #5DET15.6 #17Offensive rebound rate
MIA24.5 #24DET27.2 #17Assists per game
MIA28.8 #3DET26.7 #15Defense
Points allowed
MIA121.5 #26DET101.8 #1Points allowed per possession
MIA1.15 #26DET1.01 #1Opponent effective FG%
MIA56.8 #27DET48.8 #2Opponent 3-point %
MIA40.6 #29DET32.5 #10Turnovers forced
MIA15.4 #18DET17.1 #6Defensive rebound rate
MIA72.3 #17DET72.8 #15Steals per game
MIA8.3 #19DET9.0 #12Blocks per game
MIA5.0 #13DET6.7 #4| MIA | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 118.3 #9 | Points per game | 109.8 #21 |
| 1.11 #14 | Points per possession | 1.09 #18 |
| 106.2 #5 | Pace (possessions) | 100.9 #29 |
| Shooting | ||
| 54.6 #12 | Effective FG% | 53.1 #17 |
| 34.1 #19 | 3-point % | 36.3 #9 |
| 41.7 #20 | 3-point attempt rate | 43.3 #13 |
| 27.3 #19 | Free throw rate | 28.9 #14 |
| Possessions | ||
| 14.1 #5 | Turnover rate | 15.6 #17 |
| 24.5 #24 | Offensive rebound rate | 27.2 #17 |
| 28.8 #3 | Assists per game | 26.7 #15 |
| Defense | ||
| 121.5 #26 | Points allowed | 101.8 #1 |
| 1.15 #26 | Points allowed per possession | 1.01 #1 |
| 56.8 #27 | Opponent effective FG% | 48.8 #2 |
| 40.6 #29 | Opponent 3-point % | 32.5 #10 |
| 15.4 #18 | Turnovers forced | 17.1 #6 |
| 72.3 #17 | Defensive rebound rate | 72.8 #15 |
| 8.3 #19 | Steals per game | 9.0 #12 |
| 5.0 #13 | Blocks per game | 6.7 #4 |
Heat
2-4 overall · 2-2 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Pacers145–125
- W@ Hawks129–117
- Lvs Mavericks109–113
- L@ Hornets110–115
- Lvs Pistons111–128
A week or more of rest.
Pistons
5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- W@ Nets110–94
- Wvs Hornets97–89
- L@ Knicks97–111
- W@ 76ers106–93
- W@ Heat128–111
A week or more of rest.