Charlotte Hornets at Cleveland Cavaliers: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Apr 4, 3:00 PM ETRocket Arena · at Cavaliers · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Hornets and Cavaliers
CHA	This season	CLE
3-4	Record	4-2
3-4	ATS	2-4
1-6	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CLE 115–106 · win probability CLE 73%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 221.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges

CHA 1, CLE 7 · 2026-27 so far

CLEBig

Three-pointers

CHA hits 29.6% and allows 37.5%; CLE hits 37.0% and allows 33.7%. Threes are 50.8% and 43.6% of their shots

CLEBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: CHA 18.9, CLE 28.9. Allowed: CHA 28.4, CLE 23.2

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: CHA plays 98.3 a game (30th fastest), CLE 106.2 (3rd). Faster games mean more points

CLEBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: CHA 48.4 and allows 53.1; CLE 55.3 and allows 52.5

CHABig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CHA 31.6%, CLE 26.7%. Defensive: CHA 76.6%, CLE 73.9%

CLEBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CHA 18.8%, CLE 14.2%. Forced: CHA 14.5%, CLE 14.1%

CLEBig

CHA offense vs CLE defense

Offense 30th of 30 against a defense 20th, on the model’s ratings

CLESmall

Home court

CLE at home. This season: CLE 3-0 at home, CHA 1-2 away

CLESmall

CLE offense vs CHA defense

Offense 2nd of 30 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

CHA has played the 22nd-hardest schedule, CLE the 24th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Recent form

Last 5: CHA 2-3 ATS, margin -3.4; CLE 2-3 ATS, margin +7.6

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CHA 100%, CLE 100%. Transfers in: CHA 0, CLE 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHA WWLLL	3-4	43%	1-2	—
CLE LLWLW	2-4	33%	1-2	—

Venue/role: CHA away; CLE home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHA UUUUO	1-6	14%	3-4
CLE OOUUO	3-3	50%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHAlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	1-6 14%
CLElast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Hornets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 6	vs IND	W129–108WO
Apr 7	@ CHI	W131–99WU
Apr 9	vs BKN	W110–103WU

Cavaliers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 5	vs BKN	W125–121LO
Apr 7	@ SA	W113–101WU
Apr 9	@ IND	W117–108LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 19 since 2021-22

CHA 6–13 CLECLE leads · 19 games since 2021-22 · CLE has won the last 3 meetings · CHA 11-7-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 20, 2025-26	CLE 118 @ CHA 113	CHA +5.5	CHA W
Jan 21, 2025-26	CLE 94 @ CHA 87	CHA +3.5	CLE W
Dec 22, 2025-26	CHA 132 @ CLE 139	CLE -9.5	CHA W
Dec 14, 2025-26	CHA 119 @ CLE 111	CLE -11.5	CHA W
Mar 7, 2024-25	CLE 118 @ CHA 117	CHA +16.5	CHA W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Hornets

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −6.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-6

14% overs · avg −15.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-614%

U U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@BKN	W 110-103	-1.5	W +5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 23	vsATL	L 81-128	+2.5	L −44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsMIA	W 115-110	+4.5	W +9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsWSH	W 110-103	-2.5	W +4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@DET	L 89-97	+7.5	L −0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@WSH	L 79-95	+1.5	L −14.5	218.5	U 174
Oct 31	vsPHI	L 104-109	+1.5	L −3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

+5.5

ATL

L 81-128

−44.5

MIA

W 115-110

+9.5

WSH

W 110-103

+4.5

DET

L 89-97

−0.5

WSH

L 79-95

−14.5

PHI

L 104-109

−3.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

−7.5

ATL

L 81-128

−17.5

MIA

W 115-110

−2.5

WSH

W 110-103

−12.5

DET

L 89-97

−26.5

WSH

L 79-95

−44.5

PHI

L 104-109

+1.5

over 1under 6avg −15.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Cavaliers

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@PHI	L 106-114	+2.5	L −5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsBKN	W 125-121	-11.5	L −7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 26	vsMIN	W 127-125	-3.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsWSH	W 121-111	-9.5	W +0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 29	@ATL	L 111-114	+1.5	L −1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@MIL	W 136-111	-8.5	W +16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−5.5

BKN

W 125-121

−7.5

MIN

W 127-125

−1.5

WSH

W 121-111

+0.5

ATL

L 111-114

−1.5

MIL

W 136-111

+16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−17.5

BKN

W 125-121

+17.5

MIN

W 127-125

+17.5

WSH

W 121-111

−8.5

ATL

L 111-114

−12.5

MIL

W 136-111

+12.5

over 3under 3avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Cavaliers has the better starters

Position by position: Hornets 1, Cavaliers 4, even 0

HornetsBetterCavaliers

G D. Schroder11.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.4 ast Score 21

CLESmall

G J. Harden16.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 53

G S. James3.7 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 63

CLESmall

G D. Mitchell22.7 pts · 5.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 86

F B. Miller24.4 pts · 6 reb · 2.3 ast Score 70

CLESmall

G S. Merrill8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 90

F M. Diabate9.4 pts · 9.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 66

CHABig

C E. Mobley19.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 30

C N. Reid15.9 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 14

CLEBig

C J. Allen15.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 100

HornetsBetterCavaliers

CHA offense30th of 30 · -7.4

CLESmall

CLE defense20th of 30 · -1.2

CHA defense6th of 30 · +4.4

Even

CLE offense2nd of 30 · +4.0

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

CLEBig

Backcourt+25.3 · 3 players

Frontcourt+7.7 · 3 players

CLEBig

Frontcourt+17.9 · 2 players

Bench-5.0 · 5 players

CLEBig

Bench+4.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCHA betterCLE betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Hornets

Guards

D. Schroder32 minS. James25 minG. Allen27 minL. McNeeley12 minC. Anderson11 minM. AjayiNew

Forwards

B. Miller34 minM. Diabate29 minR. O'Neale18 minT. Salaun14 minH. Steinbach7 min

Centers

N. Reid29 minR. Kalkbrenner17 minP. Hall13 min

Cavaliers

Guards

J. Harden34 minD. Mitchell33 minS. Merrill24 minM. Thomas21 minT. Proctor12 minC. Porter8 min

Forwards

M. Hezonja18 minT. Enaruna10 minR. Minix7 min

Centers

E. Mobley33 minJ. Allen28 minT. Bryant11 minE. UdehNew

Out

P. WatsonDay-To-DayJ. TysonOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CHA98.3 #30

CLE121.0 #2

Points per possession

CHA0.99 #30

CLE1.14 #7

Pace (possessions)

CHA98.3 #30

CLE106.2 #3

Shooting

Effective FG%

CHA48.4 #29

CLE55.3 #7

3-point %

CHA29.6 #28

CLE37.0 #8

3-point attempt rate

CHA50.8 #2

CLE43.6 #12

Free throw rate

CHA18.9 #30

CLE28.9 #13

Possessions

Turnover rate

CHA18.8 #29

CLE14.2 #6

Offensive rebound rate

CHA31.6 #4

CLE26.7 #20

Assists per game

CHA21.6 #30

CLE28.7 #4

Defense

Points allowed

CHA106.4 #4

CLE116.0 #20

Points allowed per possession

CHA1.09 #15

CLE1.09 #14

Opponent effective FG%

CHA53.1 #15

CLE52.5 #12

Opponent 3-point %

CHA37.5 #24

CLE33.7 #11

Turnovers forced

CHA14.5 #23

CLE14.1 #25

Defensive rebound rate

CHA76.6 #5

CLE73.9 #11

Steals per game

CHA7.1 #25

CLE7.8 #22

Blocks per game

CHA5.0 #15

CLE6.3 #6

CHA		CLE
Scoring
98.3 #30	Points per game	121.0 #2
0.99 #30	Points per possession	1.14 #7
98.3 #30	Pace (possessions)	106.2 #3
Shooting
48.4 #29	Effective FG%	55.3 #7
29.6 #28	3-point %	37.0 #8
50.8 #2	3-point attempt rate	43.6 #12
18.9 #30	Free throw rate	28.9 #13
Possessions
18.8 #29	Turnover rate	14.2 #6
31.6 #4	Offensive rebound rate	26.7 #20
21.6 #30	Assists per game	28.7 #4
Defense
106.4 #4	Points allowed	116.0 #20
1.09 #15	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #14
53.1 #15	Opponent effective FG%	52.5 #12
37.5 #24	Opponent 3-point %	33.7 #11
14.5 #23	Turnovers forced	14.1 #25
76.6 #5	Defensive rebound rate	73.9 #11
7.1 #25	Steals per game	7.8 #22
5.0 #15	Blocks per game	6.3 #6

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hornets

3-4 overall · 3-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs 76ers104–109
L@ Wizards79–95
L@ Pistons89–97
Wvs Wizards110–103
Wvs Heat115–110

A week or more of rest.

Cavaliers

4-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Bucks136–111
L@ Hawks111–114
Wvs Wizards121–111
Wvs Timberwolves127–125
Wvs Nets125–121

A week or more of rest.

Hornets @ Cavaliers

What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Hornets

Cavaliers

Cavaliers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Hornets

Cavaliers