Detroit Pistons at Chicago Bulls: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Apr 2, 8:00 PM ETUnited Center · at Bulls · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Pistons and Bulls
DET	This season	CHI
5-1	Record	1-5
5-1	ATS	3-3
2-4	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DET 122–109 · win probability DET 82%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 231.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DET has more of the edges

DET 5, CHI 1 · 2026-27 so far

DETBig

Three-pointers

DET hits 36.3% and allows 32.5%; CHI hits 28.1% and allows 39.3%. Threes are 43.3% and 47.9% of their shots

DETBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: DET 53.1 and allows 48.8; CHI 48.2 and allows 56.0

Context

Tempo

About 105 possessions: DET plays 100.9 a game (29th fastest), CHI 109.8 (1st). Faster games mean more points

DETBig

DET offense vs CHI defense

Offense 17th of 30 against a defense 30th, on the model’s ratings

DETBig

CHI offense vs DET defense

Offense 12th of 30 against a defense 1st, on the model’s ratings

DETBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: DET 15.6%, CHI 16.2%. Forced: DET 17.1%, CHI 14.7%

CHISmall

Home court

CHI at home. This season: CHI 0-2 at home, DET 3-1 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: DET 4-1 ATS, margin +8.0; CHI 3-2 ATS, margin -10.4

Context

Schedule so far

DET has played the 17th-hardest schedule, CHI the 14th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: DET 27.2%, CHI 29.2%. Defensive: DET 72.8%, CHI 69.8%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: DET 28.9, CHI 38.3. Allowed: DET 28.1, CHI 33.5

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: DET 100%, CHI 100%. Transfers in: DET 0, CHI 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DET WWLWW	5-1	83%	3-1	—
CHI WLLWW	3-3	50%	1-1	—

Venue/role: DET away; CHI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
DET OUUUU	2-4	33%	5-1
CHI OUUOU	2-4	33%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DETlast 6	5-1 83%	5-1 83%	2-4 33%
CHIlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Pistons

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 4	vs MIA	W128–111WO
Apr 6	@ MEM	W126–110LO
Apr 7	vs IND	W133–121LO

Bulls

Date	Game	Last meeting
Apr 4	@ HOU	W132–124WO
Apr 6	@ MIL	W132–125WO
Apr 7	vs CHA	L99–131LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 20 since 2021-22

DET 8–12 CHICHI leads · 20 games since 2021-22 · DET has won the last 3 meetings · DET 10-10 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 21, 2025-26	DET 126 @ CHI 110	CHI +10.5	DET W
Jan 7, 2025-26	CHI 93 @ DET 108	DET -7.5	DET W
Nov 12, 2025-26	CHI 113 @ DET 124	DET +3.5	DET W
Oct 22, 2025-26	DET 111 @ CHI 115	CHI +3.5	CHI W
Feb 12, 2024-25	DET 128 @ CHI 110	CHI +6.5	DET W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Pistons

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

5-1

83% covers · avg +5.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −11.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

W W W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-183%

W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

O O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsBOS	W 121-113	+1.5	W +9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	@MIA	W 128-111	-2.5	W +14.5	235.5	O 239
Oct 25	@PHI	W 106-93	-1.5	W +11.5	228.5	U 199
Oct 27	@NY	L 97-111	+4.5	L −9.5	220.5	U 208
Oct 28	vsCHA	W 97-89	-7.5	W +0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@BKN	W 110-94	-8.5	W +7.5	222.5	U 204

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BOS

W 121-113

+9.5

MIA

W 128-111

+14.5

PHI

W 106-93

+11.5

L 97-111

−9.5

CHA

W 97-89

+0.5

BKN

W 110-94

+7.5

covered 5didn’t cover 1avg +5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BOS

W 121-113

+13.5

MIA

W 128-111

+3.5

PHI

W 106-93

−29.5

L 97-111

−12.5

CHA

W 97-89

−26.5

BKN

W 110-94

−18.5

over 2under 4avg −11.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bulls

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@TOR	L 92-135	+10.5	L −32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@MIL	W 132-125	+1.5	W +8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	vsWSH	L 120-124	-1.5	L −5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@BOS	L 99-134	+14.5	L −20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 28	vsNY	L 127-133	+7.5	W +1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@BOS	L 111-125	+14.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−32.5

MIL

W 132-125

+8.5

WSH

L 120-124

−5.5

BOS

L 99-134

−20.5

L 127-133

+1.5

BOS

L 111-125

+0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−10.5

MIL

W 132-125

+15.5

WSH

L 120-124

−0.5

BOS

L 99-134

−0.5

L 127-133

+26.5

BOS

L 111-125

−0.5

over 2under 4avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Pistons has the better starters

Position by position: Pistons 3, Bulls 1, even 1

PistonsBetterBulls

G C. Cunningham22.2 pts · 5.5 reb · 7.2 ast Score 47

CHISmall

G N. Powell20.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 2 ast Score 71

G A. Thompson8.8 pts · 7.4 reb · 5 ast Score 79

DETBig

G J. Giddey8.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 7.5 ast Score 29

F D. Robinson16.8 pts · 2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 77

DETBig

F C. Wilson21.2 pts · 6.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 6

F P. Reed13.8 pts · 7 reb · 2 ast Score 97

DETBig

F M. Buzelis14.5 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 4

F J. Collins9.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 30

Even

F P. Williams7 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 19

PistonsBetterBulls

DET offense17th of 30 · -0.6

DETBig

CHI defense30th of 30 · -9.4

DET defense1st of 30 · +7.1

DETBig

CHI offense12th of 30 · +1.2

Backcourt+10.1 · 2 players

DETBig

Backcourt+5.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt+19.7 · 3 players

DETBig

Frontcourt-24.0 · 3 players

Bench+22.1 · 5 players

DETBig

Bench-6.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestDET betterCHI betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Pistons

Guards

C. Cunningham34 minA. Thompson26 minD. Jenkins25 minE. Harkless21 minK. Huerter21 minJ. Green19 min

Forwards

D. Robinson30 minP. Reed27 minJ. Collins27 minT. Prince24 minR. Holland16 minT. Smith8 min

Centers

I. Jones5 min

Out

I. JoeOutJ. DurenOut

Bulls

Guards

N. Powell30 minJ. Giddey27 minT. Jones18 minB. Hield14 minJ. Hawkins14 minD. Swain12 min

Forwards

C. Wilson34 minM. Buzelis25 minP. Williams21 minL. Miller19 minZ. Collins18 minI. Okoro18 min

Out

J. SmithDay-To-DayT. AwakaDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

DET109.8 #21

CHI113.5 #16

Points per possession

DET1.09 #18

CHI1.04 #26

Pace (possessions)

DET100.9 #29

CHI109.8 #1

Shooting

Effective FG%

DET53.1 #17

CHI48.2 #30

3-point %

DET36.3 #9

CHI28.1 #30

3-point attempt rate

DET43.3 #13

CHI47.9 #4

Free throw rate

DET28.9 #14

CHI38.3 #1

Possessions

Turnover rate

DET15.6 #17

CHI16.2 #20

Offensive rebound rate

DET27.2 #17

CHI29.2 #9

Assists per game

DET26.7 #15

CHI24.3 #25

Defense

Points allowed

DET101.8 #1

CHI129.3 #30

Points allowed per possession

DET1.01 #1

CHI1.17 #27

Opponent effective FG%

DET48.8 #2

CHI56.0 #26

Opponent 3-point %

DET32.5 #10

CHI39.3 #28

Turnovers forced

DET17.1 #6

CHI14.7 #21

Defensive rebound rate

DET72.8 #15

CHI69.8 #24

Steals per game

DET9.0 #12

CHI8.7 #17

Blocks per game

DET6.7 #4

CHI5.0 #12

DET		CHI
Scoring
109.8 #21	Points per game	113.5 #16
1.09 #18	Points per possession	1.04 #26
100.9 #29	Pace (possessions)	109.8 #1
Shooting
53.1 #17	Effective FG%	48.2 #30
36.3 #9	3-point %	28.1 #30
43.3 #13	3-point attempt rate	47.9 #4
28.9 #14	Free throw rate	38.3 #1
Possessions
15.6 #17	Turnover rate	16.2 #20
27.2 #17	Offensive rebound rate	29.2 #9
26.7 #15	Assists per game	24.3 #25
Defense
101.8 #1	Points allowed	129.3 #30
1.01 #1	Points allowed per possession	1.17 #27
48.8 #2	Opponent effective FG%	56.0 #26
32.5 #10	Opponent 3-point %	39.3 #28
17.1 #6	Turnovers forced	14.7 #21
72.8 #15	Defensive rebound rate	69.8 #24
9.0 #12	Steals per game	8.7 #17
6.7 #4	Blocks per game	5.0 #12

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pistons

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Nets110–94
Wvs Hornets97–89
L@ Knicks97–111
W@ 76ers106–93
W@ Heat128–111

A week or more of rest.

Bulls

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Celtics111–125
Lvs Knicks127–133
L@ Celtics99–134
Lvs Wizards120–124
W@ Bucks132–125

A week or more of rest.

Pistons @ Bulls

What could decide it: DET has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Pistons

Bulls

Pistons has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Pistons

Bulls