Target Center · at Timberwolves · Conference game
LineNo line yet
Total—
 GS | This season | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 4-3 |
| 5-2 | ATS | 6-1 |
| 4-3 | O/U | 4-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects MIN 121–111 · win probability MIN 75%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 231.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges
GS 1, MIN 4 · 2026-27 so far
MINBigShooting
Effective FG%: GS 55.3 and allows 56.0; MIN 55.8 and allows 50.5
MINBigMIN offense vs GS defense
Offense 3rd of 30 against a defense 14th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 103 possessions: GS plays 101.4 a game (25th fastest), MIN 105.4 (9th). Faster games mean more points
GSSmallFree throws
Free throw rate: GS 28.8, MIN 26.1. Allowed: GS 27.3, MIN 28.9
MINSmallRebounding
Offensive rebound rate: GS 33.2%, MIN 30.0%. Defensive: GS 70.4%, MIN 75.4%
MINSmallHome court
MIN at home. This season: MIN 2-1 at home, GS 2-2 away
Even
Three-pointers
GS hits 40.0% and allows 35.2%; MIN hits 37.6% and allows 31.2%. Threes are 47.1% and 42.8% of their shots
Even
Recent form
Last 5: GS 5-0 ATS, margin +9.0; MIN 4-1 ATS, margin +6.4
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: GS 16.7%, MIN 15.1%. Forced: GS 17.6%, MIN 15.6%
Context
Schedule so far
GS has played the 6th-hardest schedule, MIN the 7th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
GS offense vs MIN defense
Offense 9th of 30 against a defense 8th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: GS 100%, MIN 100%. Transfers in: GS 0, MIN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelMIN -9.3
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model231.8
Model edge—
Projected score
GS 111.3 · MIN 120.5
Win probability
MIN 75%
1st half
Spread
MIN -5.1
Total
116.0
Projected score
GS 55.5 · MIN 60.5
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GSlast 7 | 4-3 57% | 5-2 71% | 4-3 57% |
| MINlast 7 | 4-3 57% | 6-1 86% | 4-3 57% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 25 since 2021-22
GS 10–15 MINMIN leads · 25 games since 2021-22 · GS 11-14 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2026-27 | GS 119 @ MIN 114 | MIN -3.5 | GS W |
| Mar 13, 2025-26 | MIN 127 @ GS 117 | GS +4.5 | MIN W |
| Jan 26, 2025-26 | GS 83 @ MIN 108 | MIN -8.5 | MIN W |
| Jan 25, 2025-26 | GS 111 @ MIN 85 | MIN -5.5 | GS W |
| Dec 12, 2025-26 | MIN 127 @ GS 120 | GS -4.5 | MIN W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Warriors
7 games played
Straight up
4-3
57% wins
Against the spread
5-2
71% covers · avg +6.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-3
57% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 | @ LAL | L 105-127 | +6.5 | L −15.5 | 233.5 | U 232 |
| Oct 23 | vs MEM | L 108-111 | -4.5 | L −7.5 | 236.5 | U 219 |
| Oct 24 | @ PHX | L 122-131 | +9.5 | W +0.5 | 221.5 | O 253 |
| Oct 26 | @ DEN | W 134-114 | +6.5 | W +26.5 | 236.5 | O 248 |
| Oct 28 | @MIN | W 119-114 | +3.5 | W +8.5 | 227.5 | O 233 |
| Oct 30 | vsLAL | W 112-95 | +2.5 | W +19.5 | 234.5 | U 207 |
| Nov 1 | vs LAC | W 124-112 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 220.5 | O 236 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@LAL
LALL 105-127
−15.5
23
vsMEM
MEML 108-111
−7.5
24
@PHX
PHXL 122-131
+0.5
26
@DEN
DENW 134-114
+26.5
28
@MIN
MINW 119-114
+8.5
30
vsLAL
LALW 112-95
+19.5
1
vsLAC
LACW 124-112
+10.5
covered 5didn’t cover 2avg +6.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@LAL
LALL 105-127
−1.5
23
vsMEM
MEML 108-111
−17.5
24
@PHX
PHXL 122-131
+31.5
26
@DEN
DENW 134-114
+11.5
28
@MIN
MINW 119-114
+5.5
30
vsLAL
LALW 112-95
−27.5
1
vsLAC
LACW 124-112
+15.5
over 4under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Timberwolves
7 games played
Straight up
4-3
57% wins
Against the spread
6-1
86% covers · avg +12.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-3
57% overs · avg −2.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 | @ MIA | W 131-106 | +1.5 | W +26.5 | 240.5 | U 237 |
| Oct 23 | @ ORL | W 115-93 | +1.5 | W +23.5 | 234.5 | U 208 |
| Oct 25 | vs TOR | W 117-94 | -3.5 | W +19.5 | 228.5 | U 211 |
| Oct 26 | @ CLE | L 125-127 | +3.5 | W +1.5 | 234.5 | O 252 |
| Oct 28 | vsGS | L 114-119 | -3.5 | L −8.5 | 227.5 | O 233 |
| Oct 30 | vsLAC | W 127-101 | -6.5 | W +19.5 | 222.5 | O 228 |
| Oct 31 | @ SA | L 111-121 | +12.5 | W +2.5 | 230.5 | O 232 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@MIA
MIAW 131-106
+26.5
23
@ORL
ORLW 115-93
+23.5
25
vsTOR
TORW 117-94
+19.5
26
@CLE
CLEL 125-127
+1.5
28
vsGS
GSL 114-119
−8.5
30
vsLAC
LACW 127-101
+19.5
31
@SA
SAL 111-121
+2.5
covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +12.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@MIA
MIAW 131-106
−3.5
23
@ORL
ORLW 115-93
−26.5
25
vsTOR
TORW 117-94
−17.5
26
@CLE
CLEL 125-127
+17.5
28
vsGS
GSL 114-119
+5.5
30
vsLAC
LACW 127-101
+5.5
31
@SA
SAL 111-121
+1.5
over 4under 3avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Timberwolves has the better starters
Position by position: Warriors 1, Timberwolves 3, even 1
WarriorsBetterTimberwolves
G B. Podziemski16.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 5.6 ast
Score 72
←GSSmall
G A. Dosunmu15.3 pts · 5 reb · 3.4 ast
Score 42
G D. Melton11.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 2.3 ast
Score 62
→MINSmall
G L. Ball14.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 6.3 ast
Score 91
G B. Williams11.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.4 ast
Score 5
→MINBig
F J. McDaniels17.3 pts · 6 reb · 3.7 ast
Score 96
F Y. Lendeborg22.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 3.7 ast
Score 78
=Even
F J. Kuminga12.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.6 ast
Score 92
F G. Niang6.4 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast
Score 72
→MINSmall
C R. Gobert7 pts · 12.3 reb · 1.5 ast
Score 98
WarriorsBetterTimberwolves
GS offense9th of 30 · +1.9
=Even
MIN defense8th of 30 · +3.6
GS defense14th of 30 · +0.3
→MINBig
MIN offense3rd of 30 · +3.7
Backcourt+5.3 · 3 players
→MINBig
Backcourt+12.6 · 2 players
Frontcourt+12.0 · 2 players
→MINBig
Frontcourt+46.4 · 3 players
Bench+5.4 · 5 players
←GSBig
Bench+0.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestGS betterMIN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
WarriorsGuards
B. Podziemski34 minD. Melton22 minB. Williams17 minW. Richard16 minL. Cryer16 minG. Payton13 min
Forwards
Y. Lendeborg32 minG. Niang20 minG. Ike12 minM. Leons11 min
Centers
A. Horford19 minC. Bassey9 min
Out
S. CurryDay-To-DayG. SantosOutD. GreenDay-To-Day
TimberwolvesGuards
A. Dosunmu29 minL. Ball25 minT. Shannon22 minB. Hyland12 minJ. Clark9 minZ. Pullin8 min
Forwards
J. McDaniels33 minJ. Kuminga30 minC. Williams24 minJ. Beringer19 minT. Lyles16 minI. Evans3 min
Centers
R. Gobert30 min
Out
A. EdwardsOut
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
GS117.7 #11MIN120.0 #6Points per possession
GS1.17 #3MIN1.13 #8Pace (possessions)
GS101.4 #25MIN105.4 #9Shooting
Effective FG%
GS55.3 #8MIN55.8 #63-point %
GS40.0 #2MIN37.6 #63-point attempt rate
GS47.1 #5MIN42.8 #16Free throw rate
GS28.8 #15MIN26.1 #21Possessions
Turnover rate
GS16.7 #22MIN15.1 #12Offensive rebound rate
GS33.2 #1MIN30.0 #7Assists per game
GS27.4 #10MIN27.3 #11Defense
Points allowed
GS114.9 #16MIN108.7 #8Points allowed per possession
GS1.13 #21MIN1.04 #4Opponent effective FG%
GS56.0 #25MIN50.5 #5Opponent 3-point %
GS35.2 #16MIN31.2 #6Turnovers forced
GS17.6 #5MIN15.6 #17Defensive rebound rate
GS70.4 #23MIN75.4 #8Steals per game
GS9.1 #11MIN9.0 #13Blocks per game
GS4.1 #24MIN4.3 #20| GS | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 117.7 #11 | Points per game | 120.0 #6 |
| 1.17 #3 | Points per possession | 1.13 #8 |
| 101.4 #25 | Pace (possessions) | 105.4 #9 |
| Shooting | ||
| 55.3 #8 | Effective FG% | 55.8 #6 |
| 40.0 #2 | 3-point % | 37.6 #6 |
| 47.1 #5 | 3-point attempt rate | 42.8 #16 |
| 28.8 #15 | Free throw rate | 26.1 #21 |
| Possessions | ||
| 16.7 #22 | Turnover rate | 15.1 #12 |
| 33.2 #1 | Offensive rebound rate | 30.0 #7 |
| 27.4 #10 | Assists per game | 27.3 #11 |
| Defense | ||
| 114.9 #16 | Points allowed | 108.7 #8 |
| 1.13 #21 | Points allowed per possession | 1.04 #4 |
| 56.0 #25 | Opponent effective FG% | 50.5 #5 |
| 35.2 #16 | Opponent 3-point % | 31.2 #6 |
| 17.6 #5 | Turnovers forced | 15.6 #17 |
| 70.4 #23 | Defensive rebound rate | 75.4 #8 |
| 9.1 #11 | Steals per game | 9.0 #13 |
| 4.1 #24 | Blocks per game | 4.3 #20 |
Warriors
4-3 overall · 4-3 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Clippers124–112
- Wvs Lakers112–95
- W@ Timberwolves119–114
- W@ Nuggets134–114
- L@ Suns122–131
A week or more of rest.
Timberwolves
4-3 overall · 1-2 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- L@ Spurs111–121
- Wvs Clippers127–101
- Lvs Warriors114–119
- L@ Cavaliers125–127
- Wvs Raptors117–94
A week or more of rest.